PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s seven matches starting with WEST HAM v LIVERPOOL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures keep coming this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We’re straight into a bumper Saturday with seven fixtures to go through after a hectic midweek fixture list. Liverpool took the headlines on Wednesday night, and unfortunately for them it was for the wrong reasons as they crashed out of the title race with a 2-0 loss to Everton. Whatever about Manchester City who have a game in hand, that left them three points behind Arsenal having played the same amount of games. Liverpool will say that they were unlucky; they finished the game with an xG over 2.0 but they conceded far too many chances themselves. It feels like their season has gone up in smoke in a matter of two weeks; the losses to Atalanta and Crystal Palace at Anfield were just massive blows. They are trading 36.0 at the time of writing for the Premier League title now, massive outsiders to give Jurgen Klopp the perfect send off. They come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.57 with West Ham 5.9 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing.
West Ham also crashed out of the Europa League at the Quarter-Final stage, and they have been massively over-performing in the Premier League this season. They have an average xG conceded of 1.79 which is the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League – only Sheffield United and Luton Town have been conceding more chances. Things could be pretty ugly for the Hammers next season because their average xG created is only 1.16 which is in the bottom six attacking figures – they have been over-performing up front this season by quite a big margin. Although Liverpool are obviously going through a difficult time, they have an average xG created of 2.2 and on paper this should be a bread-and-butter win for Liverpool. The 1.57 is a tempting bet, but straight after the Everton loss they were already moaning about an early kick off again! I feel we’ll see lots of goals here, and Both Teams To Score is the same price as the Liverpool win which looks a better option – I couldn’t put anyone off either bet however!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesLiv
FULHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We have four fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Fulham hosting Crystal Palace. We have four home favourites from the 3pm games, and while Fulham are decent favourites they are still the longest price of the four! The home win is trading 2.16 with Crystal Palace 3.7 and the draw is also 3.7 at the time of writing. These two sit right beside each other in 13th and 14th place with only three points between them – being at home has been a massive factor for Fulham this season. Their performance level at home has been much better, but Palace come into this game off the back of their best run of the season. I highlighted on Wednesday night that their two win run against Liverpool and West Ham was their best run – I know it’s not a lot but here we are – and they went on to add Newcastle to the list. Three wins in a row, and although they are outsiders here they would consider this as a decent chance to make it four. Obviously they got lucky with the Liverpool win, but then they played West Ham who have been conceding a lot of chances this season and Newcastle at home, and we know how poor at times Newcastle have been away from home this season.
You can obviously pick holes in the Palace run – their average xG created this season is only 1.14 which is in the bottom five attacking figures in the Premier League. However, morale must be sky high coming into this game. At the level Crystal Palace play at, three back-to-back wins doesn’t happen too often! Fulham have been creating a lot more than Palace, especially at home, however they have been conceding more too. I do feel that the 2.16 on Fulham is a little too short here. I just expect a more competitive game than those odds suggest; it seems a good time to support Palace in the market. However, Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.76. Fulham create a lot at home, plus they are more open at the back. Palace are scoring goals and have a lot of confidence at the moment; I feel this might be the most entertaining game of the 3pm fixtures and I’m happy with a confident bet on Overs.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulCrl
MANCHESTER UNITED V BURNLEY
3pm I said above that I feel Fulham v Crystal Palace might be the most entertaining game of the 3pm fixtures. I’m sure Manchester United will have something to say about that! The United rollercoaster continued on Wednesday night with a 4-2 win over Sheffield United; they went behind twice before putting the game to bed eventually in the final ten minutes. Although it was a win, it was another game where they conceded two goals; that’s four Premier League games in a row that they have conceded two or more goals. They face one of the most limited attacking sides in the Premier League here, but you wouldn’t be at all confident of a Manchester United clean sheet. Sure Sheffield United had the worst attacking figure heading into the game on Wednesday but scored twice. I have to say I’m very undecided on my opinion of Erik ten Hag staying or going this summer; on one hand you’re looking for consistency with managers after a terrible few years but on the other hand United have been all over the place at the back this season. Their average xG conceded this season is 1.72.
That’s the fourth worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. Only Sheffield United, Luton Town and West Ham have been worse at the back. The worrying thing for United fans is that they are having a “disappointing” season this time, but things could actually be worse. Their actual goals conceded average is only 1.52 so they have actually got away with things at the back. Burnley are obviously a very limited side, but it’s still hard to trust United these days and that’s reflected in the market. Manchester United are 1.56 with Burnley 6.2 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. Burnley are hanging in there with the relegation battle although their situation looks pretty bleak. They’re going to get chances to score here, it’s just about whether they can take them or not. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.43 so the market is expecting goals, however Both Teams To Score is the same price at the United win at 1.56 and that looks a much better position. United have been so poor at the back, Burnley can find the net at some stage.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunBur
NEWCASTLE V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm We have the shortest price of the Premier League weekend next as Newcastle host Sheffield United. Newcastle come into this game trading as short as 1.24 at the time of writing with Sheffield United 13.0 and the draw is 7.8. It’s probably a reflection on how little the market rates Manchester United this season that they were trading at a bigger price to beat Sheffield United on Wednesday. Newcastle are three points behind United in the league at the moment. Newcastle have come back down to earth with a bang this season after a world season last time. They exited the Champions League and Europe at the group stage, and their away form has lead them to a pretty miserable season. There should be extra European spots based on who won/wins the domestic Cups and Newcastle will need that to get into Europe next season. They lost again away from home with a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace on Wednesday, but they hammered Spurs 4-0 in their last home game! The problem for Newcastle has been how many chances they are conceding away from home.
Their average xG conceded away from home is as high as 1.76 and their average created is only 1.21. That’s a pretty poor level – compare that to their home performance figures of an average xG created of 1.79 with a conceded figure of 1.29. Sheffield United are nailed to the bottom of the table and they are heading back down to the Championship – there isn’t anything positive to say about them because they have the worst attacking figure and the worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Given they already know their faith, they have been attacking more recently – they’ve been involved in a lot of high scoring games recently. Over 3.5 goals has collected in seven of their last eight games – and they have managed to score in six of those eight too. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading very short at 1.35, but I like Both Teams To Score at 1.76. Sheffield United can find a goal at some stage with Newcastle winning.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewShe
WOLVES V LUTON TOWN
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with Wolves hosting Luton Town. Time is ticking down for Luton as they continue to sit in the relegation zone – the good news for them is that Nottingham Forest lost last weekend too. Neither side played midweek, so there’s still only one point between them. Everton have moved away from the relegation danger completely with three wins from their last four games, and Burnley look pretty much certain to go down too – unless of course they can somehow get a win at Old Trafford. That leaves one of Forest and Luton to take the final spot in the bottom three; it’s going to go down to the final day in my opinion and perhaps maybe even beyond with Nottingham Forest appealing their points deduction. Luton would have been gutted to ship five goals last weekend at home to Brentford, especially with Brentford having such a poor season. This is another fixture which you’d give Luton a good chance to get points in on paper, but obviously their performance levels have been quite poor this season. It’s hard to have confidence in them – quite possibly the biggest positive for Luton is that effectively the season is over for Wolves and they might be “on the beach” early given they are without a win in their last six.
It’s not a surprise to see Wolves come into the game as the favourites at 2.06 with Luton Town 3.8 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Luton have obviously struggled this season – they are one of only three sides with an average xG created under 1.0 this season – only Sheffield United have created less in front of goal. Wolves aren’t too far ahead of them however; the Luton figure is 0.98 but Wolves only have an average xG created of 1.16. They have been over-performing in front of goal and that’s why they sit in mid-table. I’m definitely keen to keep stakes low here, but I do feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest. The 2.06 feels a little short on Wolves given they haven’t been playing good football themselves, however I fully accept Luton haven’t had much to shout about either. A very small lay on Wolves is worth having at the odds in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Wolves to beat Luton Town at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolLut
EVERTON V BRENTFORD
5.30pm We have two TV evening games to enjoy on Saturday, and we start with Everton hosting Brentford. This could have been a huge game in a the relegation battle but these two have pulled away from danger at the right time. They have both put together back-to-back wins – Everton will be especially buzzing after winning the Merseyside Derby here on Wednesday night. Their fans enjoyed that one and going a long way to ending Liverpool’s title bid. Both sides have played much better football compared to the four sides in the relegation zone – Everton have an average xG created of 1.45 while for Brentford it’s 1.41 – the bottom four all have a figure of 1.13 or less. We have the most open market of the day here, and Everton come into the game as the favourites at 2.52 with Brentford 2.98 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. As I said above, both sides have created enough this season to be sitting in mid-table – obviously Everton had a point deduction while for Brentford it’s been a case of conceding too many goals. Brentford have played an exceptionally open game this season, it’s probably their style but it’s worked against them this season for the most part.
I feel we’ll have a very open and attacking game here. I was very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.86 when I clicked into the market – that price is offering fantastic value in my opinion. Everton have created a lot more at home this season, while Brentford won’t sit back here so I expect a very end-to-end game. Over 2.5 goals has collected in six of Brentford’s last nine games, and Both Teams To Score has won seven of the nine times with Sheffield United failing to score this month. While Everton kept a clean sheet midweek against Liverpool, they still conceded an xG of over 2.0. They’ve had plenty of action in their games this season and I feel these sides will gel together well. We saw four goals when the sides met earlier in the year, and like I said I just don’t see either side sitting back. I feel we’re getting so much value at 1.86 that it’s worth a five out of five stars bet – my most confident bet on Saturday!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveBrt
ASTON VILLA V CHELSEA
8pm We finish Saturday with a fascinating fixture as Aston Villa host Chelsea. At this stage of season, every game is massive for Aston Villa in the Top Four race. Spurs have a very difficult game on Sunday against Arsenal, and Villa will be thinking they could easily have a nine point advantage over Spurs by the end of the weekend. Obviously Spurs have two games in hand as things stand with Villa six points ahead. Villa also have to deal with a. major European Semi-Final soon in the Europa Conference League but they are definitely in the box seat for a Champions League spot. Chelsea got embarrassed midweek when losing 5-0 to Arsenal. I have to say, there’s been plenty of examples within the last few weeks that Chelsea have major issues in the dressing room. They don’t look like a team – you had them fighting over the penalty against Everton when winning, then players laughing at Thiago Silva crying after the FA Cup Semi-Final loss to Manchester City and they were blown away by Arsenal. The attitude looks wrong within the squad, and that’s never a good thing – it’s not surprising to see them in mid-table.
As I said in my preview midweek, I don’t see Chelsea back in the Champions League for a number of years. They look miles away in their current form. Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 2.3 with Chelsea 3.1 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. There actually isn’t much between the sides when you look at their stats – Chelsea actually create more with an average xG of 1.61 compared to Aston Villa at 1.51. Villa have been much better at the back however; there is a bigger difference at the back compared to the 0.10 difference going forward. Plus the manager looks to be in control and the squad is playing for him too. Villa have been superb at home too; very solid at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.14 and I feel that will be the difference here. Chelsea will be far more open at the back compared to Villa, and I’m happy to take the 2.3 on the home win here to finish what is a fascinating day in the Premier League!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Chelsea at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlChe
