SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews RB LEIPZIG v DORTMUND, JUVENTUS v AC MILAN and ATLETICO MADRID v ATHLETIC BILBAO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RB LEIPZIG V DORTMUND
2.30pm It’s a Saturday from Europe right out of the top drawer on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have some top class action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga to enjoy – it’s even hard to pick what game is the highlight! We kick off the action in the Bundesliga as RB Leipzig host Dortmund. This is an absolutely huge game in the race for fourth position and a place in the Champions League next season; maybe you could argue with Stuttgart losing last weekend they could get dragged into a battle but there’s not many games left in the Bundesliga this season. I expected Stuttgart to stay in the top four so that leaves one of these sides missing out. Dortmund started their huge run last weekend with a draw against Bayer Leverkusen; they got sucker punched in injury time for the draw but that’s just the run Bayer Leverkusen are on at the moment! Obviously this is a huge game, and then they have the Champions League Semi-Final first leg on Wednesday night too. These next few days will make or break their season; they have struggled to perform away from home this season – RB Leipzig could put five points between themselves and Dortmund with a win here.
As you would expect with home advantage, RB Leipzig come into the game as the favourites. The home side are trading 1.73 with Dortmund 4.8 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Both sides have been very good going forward; they are both in the top five in the Bundesliga but RB Leipzig have been better. Their average xG created is 1.78 compared to Dortmund at 1.64. They have also been much better at the back; the major issue for Dortmund has been away from home – they are conceding an average xG of 1.58 away from home which is higher than their created figure too. They have managed some great away wins recently – even beating Bayern Munich 2-0 but the other recent wins have come against sides that concede a lot of chances. Although Dortmund are two points behind in the race for fourth after last weekend, I feel they’d still be happy with a draw here and take their chances in their final three games which are easy on paper. I know it’s hard to trust Dortmund with those away figures, but the draw looks a nice position at 4.5. There isn’t that much between the sides, and I’d have the sides a little closer together in the market with the draw shorter.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 4.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiDrt
JUVENTUS V AC MILAN
5pm Next we move to Serie A for another cracking fixture as Juventus host AC Milan. Unfortunately for these two they had to watch Inter Milan confirm the title on Monday night, but given the lead they had the writing has been on the wall for a while there. AC Milan would have been gutted they did it in the Milan Derby though! When the season is over, AC Milan will be happy with second place; they aren’t title quality and a Champions League spot is the best they can do in my opinion. They also finished in the top four last season, but only because Juventus got a ten point deduction. Juventus have been on a terrible run lately, and it’s hard to believe they were once the main title challengers – I know anyone who looked at the xG figures knew that Inter would pull away at some stage, but it’s been quite dramatic. AC Milan now have a five point advantage over Juventus who now sit in third place. Juventus have only managed two wins from their last twelve Serie A games – that’s quite the run at the most important time of season!
Juventus come into the game as the favourites at 2.1 with AC Milan 4.1 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. It’s clear that both sides are searching for something here, but AC Milan have been the better side this season. They started slowly but their average xG created has crept up to 1.58 which is the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A – Juventus are a little bit behind at 1.42. AC Milan have conceded more chances than Juventus, but it’s only marginal with 0.09 in the difference. I wouldn’t say that either side have actually been that good at the back; their figures are basically mid-table level. I know Juventus have been a lot more comfortable at home this season compared to away from home, but the 2.1 feels very short on them here. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest, and from a value point of view the Juventus lay looks a very nice position. I would also be interested in Both Teams To Score at 1.88 as well as Over 2.5 goals at 2.09 but I still feel the Juventus lay offers the best value.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Juventus to beat AC Milan at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JveAcm
ATLETICO MADRID V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm We finish a blockbuster Saturday from Europe in La Liga as Atletico Madrid host Athletic Bilbao. Just like the above game in the Bundesliga, this is a huge clash in the race for fourth and the final Champions League spot. As things stand, Atletico Madrid have a three point advantage but they have opened the door again with a loss last weekend against Alaves. Perhaps a hangover after crashing out of the Champions League a few days before. Athletic Bilbao lifted the Copa del Rey and obviously that was a huge result for the club – we saw some incredible scenes – however either side of that they have dropped points in La Liga. It’s been three games without a win now, and you just cannot afford to do that given it’s so difficult to crack into that top four. You can obviously forgive them the loss away to Real Madrid, but the draws against Villarreal and Granada are very disappointing. That draw at home to Granada was a bitter blow – Granada have been so poor this season and they are nailed on to go down to the Segunda. It’s all water under the bridge now anyway, and this game will go a long way to deciding the fourth position.
As you would expect with home advantage, Atletico Madrid come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.02 with Athletic Bilbao 4.1 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Home advantage could be absolutely key here; Athletic Bilbao have been exceptional at home this season but away from home they are only barely creating more than they are conceding – there’s only a 0.02 in the difference on xG. Amazingly, there’s only 0.02 in the difference with the Atletico figures away from home too – they have been creating more than Bilbao but they have been conceding more too. At home, Atletico have been more solid at the back and we could see a pretty tight game here. I don’t think either side would be unhappy with a draw; it still gives Atletico a nice cushion and Bilbao will know this is always a difficult place to come and get a result. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.9 – Bilbao have the third best overall defensive figure this season and although it increases away, they are still pretty solid. The draw is also a tempting bet at 3.6, but I’m very happy with 1.9 on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlBil
