PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews ARSENAL v BRIGHTON, LEICESTER v ASTON VILLA and WEST HAM v MANCHESTER CITY all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V BRIGHTON
12.30pm We have another cracking Saturday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! It’s a hectic day with seven fixtures; we’re only on Matchday Three but we’re already heading into an International Break next week as the Nations League returns. We kick off the action with Arsenal hosting Brighton, and we have the shortest price of the weekend here. Arsenal are trading 1.37 with Brighton 9.2 and the draw is 6.0 at the time of writing. So far both sides have ticked all their boxes this season with two wins from two games; they both had a good test last weekend too with Arsenal away to Aston Villa and Brighton facing Manchester United. Brighton left it late to beat United but they got the job done. Brighton are a very solid side; they have very impressive attacking figures but it’s a sign of how highly the market rates Arsenal that they are trading so short here. I have to say I wasn’t expecting them to be as short as 1.37 when I clicked into the market. The major difference between the sides is their defensive records.
That’s likely where we’ll see Arsenal win the game, but at the same time I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.37 on Arsenal. Some prices stand out to be included in any weekend Acca, but this one doesn’t in my opinion. I couldn’t put anyone off a small Arsenal lay because I do expect Brighton to make the game closer than these odds suggest, however I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. Arsenal have clearly been very impressive at the back – that’s why a lot of people fancy them for the title – however with Brighton so good going forward I feel we’ll see an entertaining game here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.57 with Both Teams To Score at 1.91. The market is clearly expecting goals with the Overs price, but it’s also expecting Arsenal to do most of the work – I feel the value is with Both Teams To Score here at the odds. Brighton can get on the score sheet at some stage; this might be a tricky fixture for Arsenal.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBrg
LEICESTER V ASTON VILLA
3pm It’s a busy Saturday afternoon with five fixtures kicking off at 3pm. We do have some very interesting betting heats, but the most interesting game in my opinion is Leicester hosting Aston Villa. After starting their Premier League campaign with a good draw here against Spurs, Leicester were brought back down to earth when losing 2-1 against Fulham last weekend. I don’t think their opening two games will have changed anyone’s view on their season this year; they’re going to be in the relegation battle and it’s going to be a struggle to stay up. Aston Villa lost last weekend at home to Arsenal, but we can easily forgive them that. While Aston Villa did massively over-perform last season – their average xG created was 1.46 but their actual goals scored average was 2.0 – they should still be able to put away Leicester here. That being said, that 1.46 figure from Villa last season was mid-table level yet they got Champions League football – plenty of good fixtures to come with the new draw too! Aston Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.81 with Leicester 4.8 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing.
It’s obviously very early days in the season – definitely too early for the upcoming International Break in my opinion – but we do have two sides here who have struggled to create chances so far. Only Ipswich and Everton have created less than Leicester after two games, and Villa find themselves in the bottom six too. Villa have had a tough fixture against Arsenal though, so I’m not reading into the early figures too much. It will be interesting to see what tactics we get from both sides here – Villa usually tend to keep things as tight as possible at the back but we can definitely expect a mistake or two from Leicester at the back. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 and I don’t see much value in that price compared to the Villa win at six ticks bigger. Both Teams To Score is also the same price as Overs which doesn’t make a lot of appeal. I’m not going to get carried away with stakes here, but the 1.81 on the Villa win looks the value option.
The Striker Says:
One point win Aston Villa to beat Leicester at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiAvl
WEST HAM V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish the day with West Ham hosting Manchester City. We have another red-hot favourite here with Manchester City coming into the game trading 1.42 with West Ham 8.2 and the draw is 5.7 at the time of writing. The Hammers started their season with a 2-1 loss here against Aston Villa but they’ve beaten Crystal Palace in the Premier League and Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup since then. The early signs are decent for West Ham in the sense that they have looked reasonably solid at the back – they finished last season with an average xG conceded of 1.85 which was the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League. They over-performed in front of goal, and that’s what kept them in the top half of the table. Obviously these days football in heavily data driven, and with figures like that David Moyes was always under pressure even with getting results. Julen Lopetegui is in charge now, and the early signs are promising, however they face the best side in Europe here. City have been faultless so far, and to be honest I was surprised to see them trading as high as 1.42 when I clicked into the market.
West Ham have conceded fewer chances so far, but it’s still early days in the season. They haven’t created that much either – basically mid-table level. City have basically been going through the motions in their two games, but they have conceded very little. They were always expected to put Ipswich to the sword last weekend, but they controlled the game against Chelsea on the opening weekend very well. It’s only been two games, but they have the best defensive figure so far. I like two bets here – the 1.42 on Manchester City is too big in my opinion, and it’s hard to ignore. The other appealing bet is Both Teams Not To Score at 2.26 – I was surprised to see this trading so high given how good City have been at the back. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, however I marginally prefer Both Teams Not To Score at the odds. The City win looks a cracking option for any Acca this weekend, but the 2.26 looks big on a City clean sheet.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuMnc
