THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between LEEDS v SPURS, SHEFFIELD UNITED v CRYSTAL PALACE, MAN CITY v CHELSEA and LIVERPOOL v SOUTHAMPTON all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
LEEDS V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm Another wonderful Super Saturday of action in the Premier League and we have some fascinating markets today. All football bets are also 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today, so we have an excellent day ahead. We start the day with Leeds hosting Spurs in what should be an excellent game. Neither side are reliable at the back, and in fairness to them they have been excellent (at times!) going forward this season. Leeds have probably been more impressive going forward than Spurs, but obviously there was a lot of drama behind the scenes at Spurs with Jose Mourinho towards the end – the usual ending with Mourinho! Spurs turned on the style last weekend, but it was only against Sheffield United and they have more or less given up on the season looking at their xG figures.
Leeds were totally outplayed by Brighton last weekend, but as we all know by now Brighton are a much better side than their position in the table reflects. Leeds have had a tough fixture list recently as they have had to play Man City, Liverpool and Man United but they managed to go unbeaten over those three games! I feel the best way to describe Spurs lately is very up-and-down and I know they could blow Leeds away with a good performance, but the 2.08 just feels too short on Spurs. Leeds have played better than their position in the table and Spurs aren’t a side you’d want to back at close to evens against them. My worry is Leeds have nothing to play for and we could get a lazy performance, but that’s just something that can happen at this stage of the season and I’m still happy to lay Spurs at the odds, but with stakes kept in check.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (Liability) Tottenham to beat Leeds at 2.08 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleetot
MATCH STATS
● After a run of six consecutive victories against Spurs in the Premier League between 1999 and 2001, Leeds are winless in their last six against them in the competition (D1 L5), losing the last three in a row.
● Tottenham have won three consecutive league games against Leeds, their longest ever winning run against the Whites. They’re looking to pick up back-to-back league wins at Elland Road for the first time since October 1979.
● This is the first time Leeds are hosting Tottenham in any competition since January 2013, when the Whites won an FA Cup tie 2-1 courtesy of goals from Luke Varney and Ross McCormack.
● Leeds could become the first side to remain unbeaten at home in the Premier League against each of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd and Spurs in a season since West Ham in 2015-16, and only the third newly promoted side to do so, after Ipswich Town in 2000-01 and Birmingham City in 2009-10.
● Leeds have scored a league-high 24% of their Premier League goals this season from outside the box (12/50), with no side netting more from distance in total than the Whites coming into this weekend’s games (12, level with Leicester).
● Tottenham have scored at least once in each of their last 11 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition. Indeed, only Manchester City (31) have scored in more different Premier League games this season than Spurs (28).
● There is an age difference of 35 years and 327 days between Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa and Tottenham’s Ryan Mason, the second biggest gap between two managers meeting in the competition, after Bobby Robson and Chris Coleman (37 years, 112 days).
● Ryan Mason has become the fourth Tottenham manager to win his first two Premier League games in charge of the club, after Glenn Hoddle, Mauricio Pochettino and José Mourinho – all three of those lost their third game. Indeed, no manager has ever won their first three top-flight games in charge of Tottenham Hotspur.
● Patrick Bamford has failed to score in any of his last five Premier League games for Leeds, his longest drought in league competition since a run of seven in February 2020. He’s scored four goals in his last 17 Premier League matches, having netted 10 times in his first 17 for Leeds in the competition.
● Gareth Bale has scored nine Premier League goals for Tottenham this season. One more goal for the Welshman would be the longest gap between 10+ goal seasons in the competition’s history (8), overtaking Paul Scholes and Kanu who each went seven campaigns between netting double figures.
SHEFFIELD UNITED V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Not the most glamorous Premier League tie and I’m sure not many neutrals will be tuning in! We do have an open market though, and it’s an interesting game from a betting point of view despite it being a low quality affair. I haven’t been a fan of Crystal Palace all season, but they have a great chance to win here. I’ve said this over the past two weeks or so, but it really looks like Sheffield United are “on the beach” as they say. Something teams play with freedom after going down, like we have saw with West Brom to a degree, but Sheffield United have played worse. They have conceded xG figures of 2.31, 1.96, 1.42, 1.79 and 2.65 in their last five games since getting knocked out of the FA Cup.
With this being a game with two poor sides, it’s definitely a game for low stakes. However, I can’t get away from Crystal Palace at 2.56. Palace have definitely struggled to score goals this season, but looking at all the chances that Sheffield United give away they will surely get chances here. Whether they take them or not is another question, and you also have to factor in that Palace have given away a host of chances themselves recently. They have had to play Man City, Leicester and Chelsea in their last three games but even before that they conceded 2.83 against Everton and 2.33 against Spurs. In my view however, they could get away with that because Sheffield United haven’t been creating much. I would have Palace shorter and they are worth backing at 2.56.
The Striker Says:
One point win Crystal Palace to beat Sheffield United at 2.56 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshucry
MATCH STATS
● After a run of six consecutive victories against Spurs in the Premier League between 1999 and 2001, Leeds are winless in their last six against them in the competition (D1 L5), losing the last three in a row.
● Tottenham have won three consecutive league games against Leeds, their longest ever winning run against the Whites. They’re looking to pick up back-to-back league wins at Elland Road for the first time since October 1979.
● This is the first time Leeds are hosting Tottenham in any competition since January 2013, when the Whites won an FA Cup tie 2-1 courtesy of goals from Luke Varney and Ross McCormack.
● Leeds could become the first side to remain unbeaten at home in the Premier League against each of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd and Spurs in a season since West Ham in 2015-16, and only the third newly promoted side to do so, after Ipswich Town in 2000-01 and Birmingham City in 2009-10.
● Leeds have scored a league-high 24% of their Premier League goals this season from outside the box (12/50), with no side netting more from distance in total than the Whites coming into this weekend’s games (12, level with Leicester).
● Tottenham have scored at least once in each of their last 11 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition. Indeed, only Manchester City (31) have scored in more different Premier League games this season than Spurs (28).
● There is an age difference of 35 years and 327 days between Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa and Tottenham’s Ryan Mason, the second biggest gap between two managers meeting in the competition, after Bobby Robson and Chris Coleman (37 years, 112 days).
● Ryan Mason has become the fourth Tottenham manager to win his first two Premier League games in charge of the club, after Glenn Hoddle, Mauricio Pochettino and José Mourinho – all three of those lost their third game. Indeed, no manager has ever won their first three top-flight games in charge of Tottenham Hotspur.
● Patrick Bamford has failed to score in any of his last five Premier League games for Leeds, his longest drought in league competition since a run of seven in February 2020. He’s scored four goals in his last 17 Premier League matches, having netted 10 times in his first 17 for Leeds in the competition.
● Gareth Bale has scored nine Premier League goals for Tottenham this season. One more goal for the Welshman would be the longest gap between 10+ goal seasons in the competition’s history (8), overtaking Paul Scholes and Kanu who each went seven campaigns between netting double figures.
MANCHESTER CITY V CHELSEA
5.30pm Undoubtedly the highlight fixture of the weekend, and now a dress rehearsal for the Champions League Final! It’s been quite the few weeks for these two sides, they were involved in the European Super League and were the first two clubs to pull out, Man City have been playing brilliant football and Chelsea are playing very well in the battle for the Top Four. This should be an excellent game, and with the Champions League Final coming up in a few weeks it has added importance from a mental point of view. That being said, it’s a very important game for Chelsea who start the weekend only three points ahead of West Ham. The Blues will be confident of finishing fourth, but they have to play Arsenal midweek and then Leicester the week after, so they do have a reasonably tough run-in. A loss here would see them under pressure for those two games too.
These two will know each other very well, and Chelsea won’t fear Man City after beating them in the FA Cup Semi-Final recently. It’s hard to believe Chelsea could end the season with a Cup double after all the drama and poor performances under Frank Lampard not long ago. I was confident Man City would beat Chelsea in the FA Cup and although Chelsea came out on top, that doesn’t put me off City here at 2.0. I feel that offers a huge amount of value given how well City are playing. This is actually a fascinating fixture, as both sides will get a taste of tactics before the Champions League Final. Chelsea hammered Real Madrid midweek, but I still feel they aren’t the same level as Man City who have been putting in some excellent xG figures since Christmas time and the 2.0 is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City to beat Chelsea at 2.0 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmncche
MATCH STATS
● None of the last 11 Premier League meetings between Manchester City and Chelsea have finished level, with the Citizens winning seven to Chelsea’s four. Man City had only won seven of their first 36 Premier League meetings with the Blues (D7 L22).
● Chelsea have lost their last three away league games against Man City by an aggregate score of 9-1. Their last win at the Etihad was in December 2016 under Antonio Conte (3-1).
● Victory for Manchester City would see them win the Premier League title for the fifth time, with only Manchester United (13) winning the trophy more since its foundation in 1992.
● Manchester City have lost only one of their last 24 home Premier League games against London sides (W20 D3), going unbeaten in each of their last 14 such matches (W12 D2), since losing 2-3 versus Crystal Palace in December 2018.
● Manchester City have kept 18 clean sheets in 34 Premier League games this season, one more than they’d registered across the entire 2019-20 campaign – their highest such total in a single season in the competition is 20 in 2018-19.
● Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have lost three home games in the Premier League this season, including two of their last three at the Etihad (W1) – the Spaniard has lost more home league games in 2020-21 than in any other campaign in his managerial career.
● Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their 15 Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel – the most shutouts recorded by any manager in their first 15 games in the competition’s history. The Blues are looking to win three league games in a row without conceding for the first time since November 2017.
● Having failed to win any of his first five meetings with Pep Guardiola in all competitions, Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel won the last meeting between the two managers in the FA Cup semi-final last month.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has scored in each of his last three Premier League games against Chelsea. The last player to score in four consecutive appearances against the Blues in the competition was Carlos Tevez (5 between 2007-2010), while the only other players to do so are Ian Wright (1994), Alan Shearer (1997) and Muzzy Izzet (2001).
● Kevin De Bruyne has scored four goals in total against Chelsea in the Premier League, the most of any player against the Blues who had previously played for them in the competition.
● Last time out versus Fulham, Mason Mount (22y 111d) became the youngest Englishman to reach 10 Premier League assists for Chelsea and the second youngest of all Chelsea players behind Arjen Robben (21y 252d). Since the start of last season, Mount has created 130 goalscoring chances in the Premier League, 54 more than any other Chelsea player in this period.
LIVERPOOL V SOUTHAMPTON
8.15pm We finish a super day of action with Liverpool hosting Southampton in a must win game for the home side. After all the drama last weekend with Manchester United fans protesting at Old Trafford and the game not going ahead, Liverpool now find themselves in 7th and they will now play their game in hand next Thursday. They will believe they can catch Chelsea in fourth, but their task is massive. If they could beat United and win here, that would put them only one point behind Chelsea if Chelsea lost against Man City. Other results have to go Liverpool’s way for them to finish fourth, but Chelsea don’t have an easy run-in and it’s all still to play for really. Liverpool have been their own worst enemy this season at home, and it’s exactly games like this that they have been slipping up in.
They should comfortably beat this Southampton side who find themselves on a poor run. That being said, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Liverpool at 1.32 given how many times they have slipped up against very average sides at home this season. Southampton managed a 1-1 win with Leicester in their last game, but they should have lost as they conceded an xG of 2.26. For me over 2.5 goals looks too short here at 1.5. Liverpool haven’t been at their best going forward this season, and Southampton haven’t been scoring goals for fun lately. I could see Liverpool keeping a clean sheet and grinding out a win. Although Southampton are on a reasonably poor run, they haven’t been giving goals away since the 9-0 loss to United. They conceded three against West Brom which is an obvious worry, but at around 3.0 unders is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 3.0 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlvlsou
MATCH STATS
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six home league games against Southampton (W4 D2), winning the last three by an aggregate score of 10-0.
● Southampton are looking to complete the league double over Liverpool for just the third time in their history, previously doing so in 1960-61 (Second Division) and 2003-04 (Premier League).
● Liverpool have conceded at least once in each of their last eight Premier League home games. Only twice have they had longer runs without a home clean sheet in the competition, going nine games between September – December 1996 and nine between December 1998 – May 1999.
● Liverpool have won just six points from their last 30 available in Premier League home games (W1 D3 L6). They had only dropped 22 points from their previous 66 league games at Anfield (W55 D11 L0).
● Southampton have earned fewer points than any other Premier League side so far in 2021 (11 – W3 D2 L13), with the Saints also conceding a league-high 40 goals so far this calendar year.
● Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League this season than any other side (23).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored seven goals in seven Premier League appearances against Southampton, including five in three against them at Anfield.
● Since leaving Liverpool, Southampton striker Danny Ings has scored in two different Premier League games against them – only Nicolas Anelka (4) has scored in more different Premier League games against the Reds having previously played for them in the competition.
● Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold has been involved in seven Premier League goals this season (2 goals, 5 assists) – no defender has had a hand in more in the competition this term.
● No Southampton player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season than James Ward-Prowse (14 – 8 goals, 6 assists). His eight goals are the most he’s ever scored in a top-flight campaign, while only in 2014-15 did he register as many assists (also 6).
