SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games. The action gets underway at 12.30pm with WEST HAM v CHELSEA – all matches previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
WEST HAM V CHELSEA
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures are coming thick and fast this week! We have another excellent Saturday ahead and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the day with a fascinating London Derby as West Ham host Chelsea. The Hammers arrive into this fixture without a win in their last three Premier League games and they have lost a lot of ground in their bid for a Top Four finish. Ultimately, they will very likely come up short again but you can’t knock them – there is a gap there to fill given the issues at Manchester United, Arsenal, Leicester and Spurs this season! They played out a very even 1-1 draw with Brighton midweek and you couldn’t expect them to beat Manchester City in their game before that. Chelsea grinded out a 2-1 win away to Watford, in another very even game to be honest – that was probably the first game in a while that Chelsea weren’t at their best but they were still able to get a result. They finished the game with an xG of just 0.93 which is poor by their standards, but we must note Watford have actually put a few solid performances together recently.
So far this season you’d expect West ham to come up short against the top sides. However, they played superbly against Liverpool to win, but they have lost to Manchester United, Manchester City. That’s not really a criticism of West Ham; possibly a reflection of their quality. Yes, they are Top Four contenders, but they are always going to be an “outside chance” and you could actually say that Chelsea have come up short against the top sides too. They were played off the park by Manchester City and Liverpool. It will be interesting to see how West Ham get on here, but you have to feel that this game comes at a good time for Chelsea. West Ham were a little off the pace against Wolves and Brighton recently, while Chelsea have been banging in the goals for fun. They weren’t at their best against Watford, but still got the job done. I would definitely have Chelsea shorter than their current 1.86 and I’m happy to start the weekend with an away win. The Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool away treble landed on Wednesday – they all play away again on Saturday!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Chelsea to beat West Ham at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWhuche
MATCH STATS
● West Ham have won three of their last six home Premier League games against Chelsea (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 14 such games against them in the competition (D3 L8).
● Chelsea did the league double over West Ham last season. They last won three in a row against them in the Premier League between March 2010 and April 2011.
● West Ham have lost two of their last four Premier League London derbies (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 10 such games (W4 D4). However, they won their last derby match in the competition against Spurs, last winning consecutive meetings with London clubs in January 2019 (a run of three).
● Chelsea have won their last seven away league London derbies, an all-time record in the top four tiers of English football. The Blues have kept six clean sheets in this run, with their only goal conceded coming via Christian Benteke in April.
● West Ham are winless in three Premier League games (D1 L2), last having a longer run without a win in their final four matches of 2020 (D3 L1).
● Chelsea have made 50 changes to their starting XI in the Premier League this season, the most by a side after 14 matches of a season since Man Utd in 2009-10 (also 14 games); the only team to make 50 earlier into a season was Man Utd again, in 2001-02 (12th game).
● With five goals and five assists, Michail Antonio has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last 10 Premier League London derby appearances. Antonio is the only West Ham player in Premier League history to register double figures for both goals (11) and assists (10) in London derby matches.
● Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel has won eight of his nine Premier League London derby matches (L1), with the Blues scoring 17 and conceding just twice in these games. In English top-flight history, the German has the best win rate in such games among managers to take charge of more than one (89%).
● Against no side has Chelsea’s Romelu Lukaku scored more Premier League goals than he has against West Ham (9). He could become the seventh player to net double figures against the Hammers in the Premier League, which would be the most opposing players to score 10+ against a side in the competition.
● West Ham midfielder Tomas Soucek scored his 15th Premier League goal last time out against Brighton and Hove Albion, with only Michail Antonio scoring more for the Hammers (25) since Soucek’s debut in February 2020. Only three Czech players have ever scored more goals in Premier League history: Patrik Berger (38), Milan Baros (28) and Tomas Rosicky (19).
NEWCASTLE V BURNLEY
3pm We have three very interesting markets kicking off at 3pm. We start with Newcastle hosting Burnley in another massive game at the bottom of the table. Newcastle had a very eventful night on Tuesday as they drew 1-1 with Norwich. That result wasn’t ideal for either side to be honest, and it left Newcastle nailed to the bottom still three points behind Norwich. Burnley have the same amount of points as Norwich and they have a game in hand on Newcastle and Norwich after they couldn’t play at the weekend because of snow. They played out a boring 0-0 away to Wolves midweek, but they would have probably taken a draw before kick off. They didn’t create much though, and they will need to play a more attacking game here. Newcastle are really in a poor position and they need to pick up points fast. I have to say, the situation is absolutely fascinating. We’ve seen big money come into the top sides or even mid table sides – this is the first time we’ve had a massive takeover and the side is almost drift at the bottom of the table. After the hype from the fans, if they don’t turn things around quickly no players will want to come in January.
Without being too dramatic about Newcastle’s situation, this is a must win game. If they don’t join Burnley and Norwich on ten points soon their chances of staying up are slim. And let’s not forget that just joining Burnley and Norwich won’t be good enough, they need to go past them and then go past another side. We have seen this play out so many times – they might have a good run to join the others but then bump into the top sides and don’t pick up enough points to actually go past and get out of the relegation zone. It’s no surprise that we have an open market here and we should have a low quality game. Newcastle lost a man early against Norwich, but Burnley have put together some decent draws lately and I believe they can get something here. The value call is to lay Newcastle at 2.4, anything bar a win puts them under immense pressure but it’s hard to see them creating enough to win.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Burnley at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNewbur
MATCH STATS
● Newcastle won both league meetings with Burnley last season – they last won more consecutively against the Clarets between September 1953 and September 1955 (a run of five).
● Burnley are winless in their last eight away league games against Newcastle (D4 L4), with their last such victory at St James’ Park coming in April 1976 (1-0).
● Newcastle are winless in their last 15 games in all competitions – only once have they ever had a longer run without a win in their history, going 23 games between January and August 1978.
● Burnley have won just two of their last 17 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on Saturdays (D9 L6), having won 11 of their previous 18 such games in the competition prior to this run.
● Newcastle are just the fourth team to fail to win any of their opening 14 games of a Premier League campaign. All of the previous three were relegated at the end of the campaign – Swindon in 1993-94 (15 games), QPR in 2012-13 (16 games) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (17 games).
● No team has drawn more Premier League matches than either Newcastle or Burnley this season (7, level with Brighton and Crystal Palace); the Clarets are unbeaten in five games, with four of them drawn (W1), last embarking on a longer unbeaten league run in June/July 2020 (seven matches).
● Burnley are winless in eight away Premier League matches (D4 L4) last going more than eight without a win on the road between August 2016 and April 2017 (17 in a row).
● Allan Saint-Maximin both scored and assisted a goal in both of Newcastle’s Premier League games against Burnley last season. In Premier League history, only three players have ever scored and assisted in three consecutive games against an opponent – Steven Gerrard against Newcastle, Theo Walcott against West Ham and Roberto Firmino against Arsenal.
● Burnley manager Sean Dyche has won six of his last eight meetings with Newcastle’s Eddie Howe (L2), winning each of the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 11-1.
● Callum Wilson has scored 17 Premier League goals for Newcastle, more than twice as many as any other player for the Magpies since he joined the club at the start of last season.
SOUTHAMPTON V BRIGHTON
3pm We have another very open market here as Southampton host Brighton. Both sides had to settle for a draw midweek, as Southampton drew 2-2 with Leicester and Brighton 1-1 with West Ham. Both games were pretty even, and you couldn’t say either side was lucky or unlucky. I was very impressed by the Southampton performance against Leicester though – they created an xG of 2.16 and really attacked the game. I feel if they can play to the same level here they will win. Brighton are having a good season and they are happily in the top half of the table, but it has been a while since they won a game. They have a very fast start to their Premier League campaign, but it’s been nine games now without a win. They have had to play the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool in that run, and they were unlucky not to beat Arsenal, Newcastle and Leeds but those three games came at home. They haven’t been as good away from home.
Perhaps that run can explain the Brighton fans booing the 0-0 draw with Leeds, but to be honest I don’t think that needs an explanation as it was totally out of order. I’m still interested to see how the relationship between the fans and the manager goes after he said they need a lesson about the club history! It’s easy to understand the open market here, but I still feel Southampton are a little short at 2.56. I would have the sides priced a little closer together. I know Brighton have been better at home, but over all their performances have been impressive. Southampton have been decent too, and I feel the value play here is a small investment on the draw at 3.35. Both sides have had their fair share of draws this season, and it’s easy to see a very close game here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSoubha
MATCH STATS
● Southampton have lost just one of their eight Premier League meetings with Brighton (W3 D4). However, Saints are winless in all four such games at home against them (D3 L1), going down 2-1 in the most recent encounter.
● Following their 2-1 win in this exact fixture last season, Brighton are looking to win consecutive away league games against Southampton for the very first time.
● The home side have never won in eight Premier League meetings between Southampton and Brighton (D4 L4). Only Bournemouth vs Watford (10) has been played more often in the competition without the home side ever winning.
● In south coast derbies (including Bournemouth, Brighton, Portsmouth and Southampton), Brighton have the lowest win rate in Premier League history, winning just two of their 14 such games (14%). Meanwhile, Southampton have won 41% of those fixtures in the competition (9/22).
● Brighton are winless in nine Premier League matches (D7 L2), their fourth run of nine games without a win since joining the Premier League. However, the Seagulls haven’t gone 10 in a row without a win in the top-flight since a run between December 1982 and February 1983.
● Only Burnley and Newcastle (14 each) have dropped more points when leading in the Premier League this season than Southampton (12), while Saints have dropped 69 points under Ralph Hasenhüttl since his first game in charge in December 2018, 13 more than any other club.
● Southampton have lost just two of their last 12 home Premier League matches (W5 D5), having lost four of their previous five before this run (D1).
● No side has won more points from losing positions in away Premier League matches this season than Brighton (6, level with West Ham). Three of their last five away goals have been scored in the 89th minute or later, altering the result of each match: Leandro Trossard’s 90th minute winner vs Brentford and two Neal Maupay equalisers in 1-1 draws against Crystal Palace (90th minute) and West Ham (89th minute).
● Nathan Redmond has assisted in his last three home Premier League appearances – no player has ever assisted in four consecutive home matches for Southampton, while the last player to assist in four home appearances in a row for any side in the Premier League was Kevin De Bruyne in October 2019.
● Southampton defender Jan Bednarek has scored in four Premier League games, all at St Mary’s, and never ended on the winning side (D1 L3), despite scoring in each match to either give Saints the lead or when they were ahead. Only Dougie Freedman has scored in more home games in Premier League history and never ended on the winning side (six games in 1998-99 for Nottingham Forest).
WOLVES V LIVERPOOL
3pm We finished the 3pm fixtures with Wolves hosting Liverpool, and I have my most confident bet of the day here. I feel this is an ideal time for Liverpool to play Wolves, and the 1.48 on Liverpool is a Max Bet for me at the odds. Liverpool come into the game in superb form, as they have been for most of the season to be honest, and Wolves have been struggling in their recent fixtures. You can see looking at the xG figures that Wolves just haven’t been at their best recently, and Liverpool can take full advantage of that. I would have Liverpool at least ten ticks shorter. They were so good midweek in the Merseyside Derby they have put Rafa Benitez under pressure as Everton manager – it’s hard to see them getting a better manager but that discussion is for another day. Liverpool absolutely bossed the game and they have scored 14 goals in their last four games in all competitions. They have thrown in the odd disappointing result this season, but they have always played well – for example they had a two goal lead against Brighton but threw it away to finish 2-2.
Despite those setbacks, I still feel the 1.48 is too big to ignore here. Wolves have failed to score in their last two games against Norwich and Burnley who both side in the bottom three. Their performances have been very poor too – they only created an xG of 0.36 against Norwich and they were lucky to actually draw 0-0. They were very poor prior to that against Crystal Palace too, creating an xG of 0.32 while losing 2-0. Both of those performances came away from home as I highlighted in my preview of the Burnley game and they do look much more comfortable at home but then they only managed an xG of 0.82 at home to Burnley midweek. They look out of form, and as I said this is an ideal time to back Liverpool.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Liverpool to beat Wolves at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolliv
MATCH STATS
● Wolves have won just one of their 14 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L11), winning 1-0 at Anfield in December 2010. They’ve lost their last nine against the Reds in the competition by an aggregate score of 20-2.
● Liverpool haven’t lost any of their last eight away league games against Wolves (W5 D3), with their last league defeat at Molineux coming back in August 1981 (0-1).
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have lost just two of their 13 home league games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday (W7 D4), going down 2-0 against Watford in October 2018 and 5-2 against Chelsea in September 2019.
● Wolves have kept three consecutive Premier League clean sheets, as many as they’d kept in their previous 18 such games beforehand. They are looking to keep four in a row for the first time since a run between March and June 2020.
● Liverpool have scored 43 goals in 14 Premier League games this season, with only Man City in both 2011-12 (48) and 2017-18 (44) scoring more at this stage of a Premier League season. However, the Reds are third in the table, with Wolves in 1959-60 the last side to have scored that many at this stage and not be top of the league having played the same number of games as the team at the top (scored 43, were 3rd).
● Wolves’ last two Premier League games have ended 0-0 – the last side to draw three games goalless in a row were West Ham in December 2015. However, their opponents Liverpool have scored in their last 24 Premier League games, the longest ongoing such run in the division.
● Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has won all six of his Premier League games against Wolves, his best 100% winning record against any opponent in his top-flight managerial career.
● Liverpool forward Diogo Jota turns 25 on the day of this game. He could become just the third player to score a Premier League goal on his birthday against a side he previously played for in the competition, after Emmanuel Adebayor (for Spurs vs Arsenal in 2012) and Juan Mata (for Man Utd vs Chelsea in 2019).
● Liverpool full-back Andrew Robertson could become the 15th Scotsman to make 200 Premier League appearances in this match, and the first since James McArthur in April 2018. Robertson’s 43 assists are the most any Scotsman has provided in his first 200 games in the competition, 11 more than the next most (Gary McAllister, 32).
● Liverpool striker Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in at least one goal in his last 12 Premier League appearances, either scoring (12 goals) or assisting (6 goals) in every match. In Premier League history, only Jamie Vardy (15 in a row between August and December 2015) has been involved in a goal in more consecutive appearances.
WATFORD V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm An interesting market to finish the day as Watford host Manchester City! We have the shortest price of the day here as City are trading just 1.23 at the time of writing. I have to say after seeing the Watford v Chelsea game here midweek, I wouldn’t be a backer at those odds. Although Chelsea won 2-1, Watford actually played very well and you could argue that they deserved a draw. I feel you’d want to be very close to certain before backing odds like that, and Watford seem in good form at the moment. Despite that however, you can’t ignore the obvious gulf in class between the sides here. Really and truly, City should be winning these type of games, and if they want to win the title they have to. As I said, Watford have put together some nice performances and got some wins – they start the day three points away from the relegation zone but as I also said in my Newcastle v Burnley game, it’s when you run into the top sides that you get stopped in your tracks. If Burnley can win today, Watford will start this game in the bottom three despite their current form.
City weren’t at their best away to Aston Villa midweek, but they grinded out a deserved win. That’s what they have been doing lately – they haven’t been blowing sides away but they are winning in a very controlled manner. I’m actually very interested to see what kind of tactics Watford employ here – do they attack City or do they put XI men behind the ball. They lost 4-2 to Leicester last weekend, but they were actually very unlucky to lose as they created a higher xG. City aren’t used to sides attacking them, so why not have a go in my view! I feel Watford have been creating so much lately they can score here – we could see a lot of goals in this one as it goes end-to-end, but Both Teams To Score looks the value at 2.2. City have also been conceding the odd goal, and with Watford playing with freedom lately I reckon this could be a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatmci
MATCH STATS
● Watford have never beaten Manchester City in the Premier League (D2 L10), losing their last 10 against them by an aggregate score of 37-4.
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 18 meetings with Watford in all competitions (W16 D2), netting 59 goals in this run. Only against Norwich (22 between 1965-1981), Walsall (19 since 1897) and West Brom (19 since 2010) have they ever had longer unbeaten runs.
● Watford have lost 19 of their 26 league games against reigning top-flight champions (73% – W4 D3), the highest loss rate of any side to have played at least 20 such games in English top-flight history.
● Having already beaten Manchester United, Watford are looking to defeat both Manchester United and Manchester City in a single league season for the first time since 1986-87 in the top-flight.
● Manchester City haven’t lost any of their last 10 matches in all competitions in the month of December (W7 D3). Across those 10 games, they have scored 17 goals and conceded only three.
● Man City have lost just two of their last 21 Premier League away games (W17 D2), going unbeaten in each of their last six on the road (W5 D1). Since Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge (2016-17), Man City have won more away games (72) and away points (227) than any other side in the Premier League.
● Man City boss Pep Guardiola has won all nine of his meetings with Watford in all competitions, by an aggregate score of 39-3. Against no side does the Spaniard have a better 100% win rate in his managerial career (also 9/9 vs Bournemouth).
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been directly involved in 12 goals in just eight appearances against Watford in all competitions (10 goals, 2 assists). Only against Bournemouth (11) has Sterling scored more goals in his senior club career than he has against the Hornets.
● Watford’s Emmanuel Dennis has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances – the only Hornets players to score in four in a row in the competition are Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney, who both did so across November and December 2015.
● Bernardo Silva has scored four goals in his last seven Premier League appearances for Manchester City – as many as in his previous 55 games in the competition.
