SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The early kick off is Man City v Wolves at 12.30pm.
MANCHESTER CITY V WOLVES
12.30pm It’s the second last Premier League weekend before Christmas and we have a fascinating Saturday in store! Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United are all in action, and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. All the top five big names are odds on favourites today, and we start with the shortest price of all as Manchester City host Wolves. City are trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing – fair to say the market expects an easy win. City lost 2-1 to RB Leipzig midweek in the Champions League, but I wouldn’t read too much into that as they were certain of top spot before the game. It was a pretty even game and it meant more to Leipzig. In the Premier League, City have been in excellent form – their xG figures have been impressive all season to be honest, and it’s hard to see past the City win here given Wolves come into the game out of form. We won’t see a shock here.
With a City win expected, we’ll have to look to the side markets to find some value. Although you would call Wolves a solid mid-table side, there are signs that they are going through a rough patch. On the face of it, they were unlucky to concede a late winner against Liverpool last weekend but they were hammered looking at the xG figures. They only created an xG of 0.13 and conceded 2.65. I would be worried about their 0-0 draws with Burnley and Norwich too, and then they recently lost away to Crystal Palace and only created an xG of 0.32. With Wolves creating very little, their best chance of a result here seems to be sitting back and hoping for a 0-0. They might try that, but City have been so good going forward I just can’t see it. I feel City can completely run over this out of form Wolves side, and Any Other Home Win is worth backing at 3.5 in the Correct Score market.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMciwol
MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last nine home games against Wolves in all competitions (W6 D2), going down 2-0 in October 2019.
● Having done the league double over Manchester City in 2019-20, Wolves lost both Premier League meetings with the Citizens last season by an aggregate score of 7-2.
● Among all fixtures to have been played at least 60 times in the history of the English Football League since it was formed in 1888, Man City vs Wolves has the highest goals-per-game ratio of 3.83 (437 goals in 114 meetings).
● Manchester City have won 31 of their 39 Premier League games in 2021 (D2 L6) – only Liverpool in 1982 (33) and Chelsea in 2005 (32) have won more matches in a single calendar year in English top-flight history.
● Wolves have lost 20 of their last 23 away top-flight matches against the reigning champions (W3) but did win 2-0 at Man City in the 2019-20 campaign.
● Excluding penalties, Wolves are the only side that are yet to concede a set piece goal in the Premier League this season, despite facing 39 shots from such situations. By contrast, only Leeds (15) conceded more set piece goals (excl. pens) in the Premier League last season than Wolves (14).
● Man City forward Gabriel Jesus has scored in all three of his Premier League starts against Wolves, netting five goals in total. The Brazilian has only scored more against Everton in the competition (8) than he has against Wolves.
● Wolves’ Adama Traoré has scored more Premier League goals against Man City than he has against any other side (3), netting both goals in Wolves’ only away Premier League victory against the Citizens in October 2019.
● Raheem Sterling has scored 99 Premier League goals (18 for Liverpool, 81 for Manchester City). He would be the 32nd different player to reach triple figures in the competition, and the eighth youngest to do so (27 years and 3 days on the day of this game).
● Bernardo Silva has scored six goals in his last eight Premier League appearances for Manchester City – one more than in his previous 61 games in the competition (5) and is the top scoring midfielder in the Premier League so far this term (7).
ARSENAL V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm This is probably the most interesting game from a betting point of view today as Arsenal host Southampton. Backing Arsenal at odds on always comes with some form of wealth warning, and we have that question again here as they trade 1.69 at home to Southampton. Although the loss against Manchester United was a setback in terms of morale and the timing of that game, the loss against Everton on Monday was a huge setback when you look at the table. They are starting this weekend behind Spurs and Manchester United, and that’s not even mentioning the Top Four. Two weeks ago Arsenal were best placed to take on West Ham for that fourth spot, and although to be honest nobody had much confidence in them, another few poor results and they are out of the running for the European spots. Their fans won’t be happy, and the atmosphere in the stadium just turns sour. We’ve seen it almost every season recently with Arsenal.
So, in that sense I don’t think it’s too dramatic to suggest that this is a must win game for Arsenal. They need to get back to winning ways and turn things around. The problem with Arsenal this season is that every time they have come against a reasonably solid and good team, they have come up short. Even in the games they have won, they have been very lucky at times. They were lucky to beat Leicester, lucky to draw at Brighton and lucky to beat Burnley. Things could be much worse for them looking at the table. While Southampton arrive into this fixture without a win in four, they are actually playing solid football. They were unlucky to lose to Norwich, and created a higher xG in the draw to Leicester. You can forgive the loss to Liverpool because they’ve been so good and in general Southampton have been playing good football. I have no faith in Arsenal winning here and feel the 1.69 is at least ten ticks too short – this one is going to be closer than those odds suggest in my book.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Southampton at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQArssou
MATCH STATS
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last 11 league games against Southampton (W6 D4), while at home the Gunners are unbeaten in 26 league games against them, since a 1-0 loss in November 1987.
● Southampton have never won in 22 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D7 L15) – it’s the most one side has faced another on the road without ever winning in the competition’s history.
● In their top-flight history, only against Fulham (27 since 1949) and Manchester City (27 between 1976 and 2012) have Arsenal had a longer unbeaten home run than their current run of 26 against Southampton.
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 27 Premier League home games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday (W22 D5) since a 3-1 loss against Aston Villa on the opening day of the 2013-14 campaign.
● Arsenal have won their last three home Premier League matches, last winning four in a row between July and October 2020. They’ve won their last two at home without conceding, last winning three in a row without reply at the Emirates in October 2017.
● Southampton have lost 14 away Premier League matches in 2021, their most away league defeats in a single year since 2004, when they lost 15.
● Southampton have conceded 47 away Premier League goals in 2021, the joint-most by a team in a year in Premier League history (also Sheffield Wednesday in 1997, Bolton Wanderers in 2007 and Wigan Athletic in 2009). The last top-flight side to concede more in a year was Luton Town in 1991 (49) while the last side to ship 50 was both Watford and West Brom in 1985.
● Despite not playing in the Premier League for seven seasons between 2005-06 and 2011-12, only two teams have ever lost more away Premier League games in London than Southampton (74), with Newcastle losing 82 and Everton losing 80.
● Since Ralph Hasenhüttl’s first game in charge in December 2018, Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League side (71). Seven of these have been against Arsenal, with Saints only dropping more against Wolves and Manchester United (10 each) in that time.
● Arsenal’s Martin Ødegaard has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances although ended on the losing side in each game against Man Utd and Everton. Only four players in Premier League history have scored in three in a row and lost each time, most recently Michail Antonio for West Ham in August/September 2016. The last Gunners player to score in three league games in a row and lose all three was Malcolm Macdonald in March 1977.
CHELSEA V LEEDS
3pm It hasn’t been a good week for Chelsea. They’ve conceded six goals in two games, lost top spot in the Premier League and missed out on topping their Champions League Group too. They will be please to get back to a home game after three poor away performances. Even in their 2-1 win over Watford, the game was very even and Watford probably deserved a draw in the end. The late West Ham goal to win the game would have been a hammer blow, but they only have themselves to blame – they had the lead at 2-1 and couldn’t close the game out under pressure. They conceded a pretty high xG figure against Zenit in the Champions League midweek, and that’s definitely going to make their life harder with the Champions League Last 16 draw on Monday. Leeds have been hanging around the relegation zone but in recent weeks they have moved up the table. They’ve only lost one game in their last six, and I wouldn’t be fully confident “lumping on” Chelsea here at 1.31.
Leeds are still conceding a lot of chances at the back, and that is just something they are going to have to deal with right throughout the season. That will no doubt be music to the ears of Chelsea fans, but there are signs that Leeds are improving going forward. Leeds being very poor at the back is nothing new, but what has changed this season is they stopped created chances going forward and keeping hold of the ball. When you lose that and have a dodgy defence, the result is losing most games. However, in their last five games Leeds have created xG figures of 1.79, 1.45, 0.80, 1.55 and 1.44. They are getting there, and can get on the scoresheet here. Over 2.5 goals looks over priced at 1.67 in my opinion – we should see goals here!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChelee
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won their last four home league games against Leeds – they’ve never won five in a row against them at Stamford Bridge.
● Leeds are winless in their last six meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (D2 L4), since a 2-0 home win in December 2002.
● In all competitions, Leeds have lost their last seven meetings with reigning European champions, since beating Nottingham Forest 1-0 in December 1980. Their last such game was a 5-1 home defeat to Chelsea in a League Cup tie in December 2012.
● Chelsea have drawn their last two home Premier League matches, 1-1 draws with Burnley and Manchester United. The Blues haven’t drawn three in a row at Stamford Bridge since a run of four between December 2015 and February 2016 under Guus Hiddink.
● Chelsea conceded more than twice for just the second time in 34 Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel in their 3-2 loss at West Ham last time out. In fact, the Blues have conceded more goals in their last three Premier League games (5) than they had in their first 12 combined this season (4).
● Leeds have won just two of their last 32 away matches in London in all competitions (D7 L23) and have lost two of their last three games when scoring first in the capital: against Chelsea last December and Spurs in November (won 2-1 in the other vs Fulham).
● Both Chelsea and Leeds have scored a joint league-high three goals in the 90th minute of Premier League games this season; Chelsea’s three have put the gloss on already won games for them, while Leeds’ three have either been winning (1) or equalising (2) strikes.
● Mason Mount has both scored and assisted a goal in three of his last four Premier League starts for Chelsea, with the English midfielder scoring five and assisting three in these games. Mount has the most league goals (9) and assists (6) of any Chelsea player under Thomas Tuchel.
● Raphinha has scored six of Leeds’ 15 Premier League goals this season, with no other player at the club netting more than twice so far this term. His six goals have been worth seven points to the Whites, with only Jamie Vardy’s strikes being more valuable to his side this season (8).
● Patrick Bamford – who scored in Leeds’ 3-1 defeat at Chelsea last season – is looking to become the first Leeds player to score in consecutive away league matches against Chelsea since Gary McAllister in the 1994-95 and 1995-96 seasons.
LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA
3pm Steven Gerrard is going to be the centre of attention here as Liverpool host Aston Villa. The Liverpool fans will no doubt give a warm welcome to the new Aston Villa manager, but they will want to keep their winning run going. Gerrard has definitely given Aston Villa a huge boost on confidence, and although they didn’t deserve to win his first two games in charge – they have played much better football in their last two games. Funny what a bit of confidence can do isn’t it? In my opinion, they actually played better in defeat against Manchester City than when they beat Brighton and Crystal Palace! They were good last weekend at home to Leicester, creating an xG of 2.23 which was their first xG of over 2.0 this season. The signs are good, and they are heading in the right direction. It will be interesting to see can Gerrard keep this momentum going, and it will also be interesting what type of tactics he employs against his former club.
Liverpool completed a rare feat during the week, winning all six of their Champions League Group games. That was no mean feat too considering they had Atletico Madrid, Porto and AC Milan in their Group! They have been playing some excellent football right throughout the season and if everyone can stay fit then they will be tough to beat for the title. I have to say, I was very surprised to see some of Liverpool’s key men play midweek, especially with a busy Christmas schedule coming up – Klopp was moaning about the fixture list, but didn’t opt to rest players given the perfect opportunity? Liverpool should win here, and the market is very confident pricing the home side at 1.26. Aston Villa did very well against Manchester City to keep them down to a one goal win – I know this is a tougher test away from home, but Villa look worth a small investment at 1.6 with a 2.5 goal handicap.
The Striker Says:
One point win Aston Villa +2.5 goals to beat Liverpool at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivast
MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Aston Villa (L1), scoring at least twice in all seven games.
● After a four-game unbeaten away run against Liverpool in the Premier League between 2012 and 2014, Aston Villa have now lost each of their last three visits to Anfield in the competition.
● Aston Villa against Liverpool has been won by the away side on 20 occasions in the Premier League, with only Manchester City vs Manchester United (21) seeing more away wins in the competition’s history.
● Only Arsenal against Liverpool (6) has seen more hat-tricks scored than Aston Villa vs Liverpool (4) in Premier League history, with Villa’s Ollie Watkins the last player to score one in October 2020.
● Liverpool have won their last two home Premier League matches 4-0, against Arsenal and Southampton. The Reds haven’t won three consecutive home league games by a margin of at least four goals since September/October 1987, beating Derby, Portsmouth and QPR 4-0 back then.
● Liverpool lost eight of their first 12 Premier League games in 2021 (W3 D1), failing to score on seven occasions in that run. Since then, the Reds have scored in all 25 of their Premier League games and lost just once (W18 D6).
● With an expected goals against total of 18.6, Aston Villa (24 goals conceded) have shipped just over five goals more than expected based on the quality of chances they’ve faced – only Norwich and Crystal Palace have more this season. However, the Villans have also scored (21) around five more than their xG suggests (16.2), with only Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham over performing more this term.
● Aston Villa have won three of their four Premier League games under Steven Gerrard (L1), as many as they had in 11 games under Dean Smith this season (D1 L7). Gerrard is looking to be the first Villa manager to win his first two Premier League away games in charge of the club since John Gregory (first 5 in 1998).
● This will be Steven Gerrard’s first match against Liverpool as a manager, the club he played for 710 times in all competitions, the third-most in the Reds’ history. Former players managing against the Reds at Anfield in the Premier League have lost 14 of their last 16 visits (W1 D1), with Kevin Keegan the last former Liverpool player to win there, in May 2003 with Manchester City.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has either scored or assisted a goal in 13 consecutive Premier League games, setting up Divock Origi’s late winner against Wolves last time out. It’s the second longest run of consecutive games with a goal involvement in the competition’s history, after Jamie Vardy’s run of 15 between August and December 2015.
NORWICH V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.30pm We finish a fascinating Saturday in the Premier League with Norwich hosting Manchester United. Ralf Rangnick had his first little setback as Manchester United manager midweek when his side could only draw 1-1 with Young Boys. To be honest, they only needed a draw and given the head-to-head record, the game was meaningless to them – I wouldn’t read too much into it, and I’m more interested in how United play here. Since Rangnick fully took control, United have had two exceptionally tight games. I know he is focused on making them solid at the back, but they are also creating fewer chances. It’s a very small sample size, but United have had two home games and created xG figures of 0.89 and 1.04. They’ve actually conceded more chances than they have created, although only marginally. They were lucky to beat Crystal Palace, and it will be fascinating to see what they can create here.
Norwich had an unbeaten run of four games going but bumped into Spurs away from home last weekend. I know I have said this before, but after such a bad start it shows how difficult it is to get out of the relegation zone. Even if you put a few wins together, you bump into the top sides and lose momentum. They will fancy this game though, and know if they attack United they will get chances. The Norwich performances haven’t really improved, it’s just they have been getting some results. To be honest it was very disappointing that they couldn’t beat Newcastle because Newcastle had a man sent off so early in the game. They played very well in their last home game against Wolves though, and I’d expect another very tight game here with the new tactics of United. The away win seems short to me at 1.48, but under 2.5 goals at 2.24 will be my bet.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNormun
MATCH STATS
● Norwich have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Man Utd (W2), including the last three in a row. It’s the fourth time they’ve lost three consecutive Premier League games against Man Utd, but they’ve never lost four in a row against them in the competition.
● None of Manchester United’s last 14 away league games against Norwich has finished level, with the Red Devils winning nine of these (L5).
● Manchester United are winless in their last four Premier League matches against newly promoted sides (D3 L1), losing 4-1 to Watford earlier this season. The Red Devils haven’t gone five league games in a row without a win against such sides since a run of seven between January 1992 and January 1993.
● Two of Norwich’s last four home Premier League matches have ended goalless, one more than in their previous 47 at Carrow Road. The Canaries’ two clean sheets in four home games is also as many as they managed in their previous 26 in the top-flight.
● Norwich have failed to score in a league-high nine different Premier League games this season, while their eight goals scored is their fewest after 15 games in their league history. Of the 17 previous clubs to have netted eight goals or fewer after 15 top-flight games, only three have avoided relegation – Sheffield United (1990-91), Everton (2005-06) and Crystal Palace (2017-18).
● After an English-league record 29 consecutive away games unbeaten, Manchester United have now lost two of their last four on the road, conceding four goals in both defeats.
● Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford has been involved in four goals in his two Premier League games against Norwich (3 goals, 1 assist), averaging a goal involvement every 37 minutes against the Canaries in the competition.
● This will be Ralf Rangnick’s first away league match in charge of Manchester United – none of the previous four permanent Man Utd managers have lost their first league game on the road (W3 D1), with Alex Ferguson the last to do so (2-0 at Oxford United in November 1986).
● Norwich’s Dean Smith has already beaten Manchester United once in the Premier League this season, winning 1-0 with Aston Villa in September. He could become the first manager since Andy Aitken in 1908-09 to beat Man Utd with two different clubs within the same top-flight season – Aitken won 5-0 with Middlesbrough and 3-2 with Leicester that season.
● Three of Mason Greenwood’s four Premier League goals this season have come away from home, making him Manchester United’s highest league goalscorer away from Old Trafford this season.
