THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The highlight is the North London Derby at 4.30pm with TOTTENHAM v ARSENAL.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WEST BROM V CRYSTAL PALACE
12pm A fascinating day in the Premier League! We have some very competitive fixtures today and we also have some very competitive markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange . Only Liverpool are odds on later, and that’s still a good game against Wolves. We start with West Brom hosting Crystal Palace after finally having their first win of the season last weekend. They will surely fancy their chances of a follow up victory here against a Palace side who have struggled to create chances.
It’s not a surprise to see such an open market. I have to say looking at the xG figures West Brom were exceptionally lucky to beat Sheffield United 1-0 last weekend. Sheffield United created an xG of 3.25 – it just hasn’t been their season this year! That was a shame because we had a decent bet on them at a decent price. I expect a pretty low quality affair here with both sides struggling to create chances and score goals. Sometimes with two poor sides like this you can actually get a game with a lot of goals through mistakes and poor play, but under 2.5 goals is too big to ignore at 1.77 looking at these two on paper and I have to back those odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwbaCry
MATCH STATS
- West Brom have lost just one of their six Premier League home games against Crystal Palace (W2 D3), going down 0-2 in March 2017.
- In all competitions, Crystal Palace are unbeaten in four meetings with West Brom (W3 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time.
- West Bromwich Albion earned their first Premier League victory of the season last time out against Sheffield United – the Baggies last won back-to-back Premier League games in May 2018, while they last won consecutive home top-flight games in February 2017 (a run of four).
- West Bromwich Albion have the lowest expected goals total so far in the Premier League this season (5.9); indeed, 43% of their goals have come from outside the box, the highest ratio in the competition in 2020-21 (3/7).
- No side has scored fewer second half goals than West Brom in the Premier League this season (2), with a league-high 71% of the Baggies’ goals this term coming before half-time (5/7).
- Since keeping a clean sheet in their opening weekend victory against Southampton, Crystal Palace have conceded in each of their last nine Premier League matches. Only Sheffield United (13) are on a longer current run without a shutout.
- In their last Premier League campaign in 2017-18, West Brom failed to win any of their seven league matches played in December, drawing four and losing three. No team has ever played more games in a specific month of a single Premier League campaign without a win.
- West Brom’s first four Premier League games this season saw a total of 18 goals scored (F5 A13), at an average of 4.5 per game. Their last six league games have seen just seven goals scored (F2 A5), an average of 1.2 per game.
- Crystal Palace have the oldest average starting XI in the Premier League this season (29 years, 132 days). Indeed, Roy Hodgson has named the nine oldest starting lineups in the competition this term, with their last game against Newcastle the oldest so far (30y 182d).
- Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has won 10 of his 24 Premier League matches against sides he’s previously taken charge of in the competition – only Harry Redknapp and Sam Allardyce (11 each) have won more such games.
SHEFFIELD UNITED V LEICESTER
2.15pm This is a very interesting fixture for me! Sheffield United are nailed to the bottom of the Premier League table with only one point from ten games. They lost a massive fixture to West Brom last weekend and that would have been a huge blow to them. The thing is though, they are playing some good football. Call it bad luck or whatever, but they just aren’t winning games. They created an xG of 3.25 against West Brom and couldn’t score. I suppose the best thing you can say is that they simply need to take their chances.
I read The Ultra’s Europa League preview midweek when he highlighted how Leicester’s confidence dipped after losing to Liverpool when branded “title challengers” at the time last season. He highlighted how that might happen again after a heavy defeat to Liverpool and then they went on to lose against Zorya Luhansk after losing to Fulham. They are worrying signs and with Sheffield United playing good football I’m happy to have a small lay on Leicester. Stakes are kept small because Sheffield United simply need to get results rather than just playing well.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Sheffield United at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsheLei
MATCH STATS
- Leicester have won each of their last five meetings with Sheffield United in all competitions, including both Premier League games last term.
- In all competitions, Sheffield United are winless in their last eight games against Leicester (D2 L6) since a 3-0 home win in the Championship in April 2008. The Blades have also lost each of their last three at home against Leicester.
- Sheffield United are one of just three teams in English top-flight history to have won one point or fewer from their opening 10 games to a season, after Manchester United (0 in 1930-31) and West Bromwich Albion (1 in 1985-86).
- Sheffield United are winless in their last 13 Premier League games, losing 12 of those. They last had a longer run without a league win between December 2010-March 2011 (14 games).
- No side has scored fewer Premier League goals this season than Sheffield United (4). 22% of their total shots this season came in their 0-1 defeat at West Bromwich Albion last time out (21/95).
- Leicester have lost three of their last four Premier League games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W1), as many as they had in their previous 27 such matches. The Foxes have lost their last two against sides in the drop zone (vs Bournemouth and Fulham), last losing more consecutively between December 2000-February 2002 (8).
- Leicester have lost consecutive Premier League games for the sixth time under Brendan Rodgers – they’ve not lost three in a row in the competition since their final three under Claude Puel in February 2019.
- Oli McBurnie has had almost twice as many shots as any other Sheffield United player in the Premier League this season (19), though he has yet to find the net so far in 2020-21.
- Since the start of last season, Sheffield United keeper Aaron Ramsdale has conceded more goals from outside the box than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League (13).
- No player has scored more goals away from home in the Premier League this season than Leicester’s Jamie Vardy, with 88% of his league goals so far this term coming on the road (7/8).
TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL
4.30pm The North London Derby is the highlight of the weekend and we should have an excellent affair. A win for Spurs would be massive given the rivalry and the position of the sides! Spurs started the weekend in top spot while Arsenal sat all the way down in 14th, if Spurs won and a few sides around Arsenal also won, Arsenal will find themselves in an embarrassing position. Spurs have been excellent this season and they are really playing their heart out for Jose Mourinho at the moment. We have seen this story before and it usually ends badly – but when he gets them going that’s the time when he has success.
There was a lot of hype around Arsenal at the start of the season, but anyone looking at xG figures knew they hadn’t changed. That has now been reflected in their results after a lucky run of wins. They were out-played by Wolves last weekend and even though they got a 0-0 draw against Leeds prior to that Leeds totally dominated the game, ending with an xG of 2.01 to 0.79. North London Derbies are always close and competitive, but this is a perfect time to back Spurs in my opinion. They are in superb form and Arsenal are there for the taking.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Tottenham to beat Arsenal at 2.08 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQtotArs
MATCH STATS
- Tottenham are unbeaten in their last six Premier League home games against Arsenal (W4 D2) since a 0-1 loss in March 2014. It’s their longest unbeaten home league run against the Gunners since a run of nine between January 1960 and January 1968.
- Arsenal have only lost back-to-back Premier League games against Tottenham twice – in May 1993 and November 2010.
- The team scoring first has failed to win 27 of the 51 Premier League meetings between Tottenham and Arsenal that have had at least one goal scored, more than any other fixture in the competition (Spurs failed to win 16/25 games, Arsenal failed to win 11/26 games).
- Tottenham have dropped 42 points from winning positions in Premier League games against Arsenal, more than any side has lost against another in the competition’s history.
- This will be the lowest in the table Arsenal have been going into a north London derby since August 1993, when they sat 21st after just one game before a 1-0 victory at White Hart Lane courtesy of a late Ian Wright header.
- Tottenham are on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League (9 – W6 D3), while only Sheffield United (13) are on a longer run without a win than Arsenal (3 – D1 L2). However, the Gunners are looking to keep three consecutive away clean sheets in the Premier League for the first time since May 2013.
- Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta lost his first game against Spurs in this exact fixture last season – the only manager in Arsenal’s history to lose both of their first two north London derby matches was Bertie Mee back in the 1966-67 season.
- Tottenham manager José Mourinho won his first north London derby match in charge back in July – the only Spurs manager in history to win both of their first two games against Arsenal was Jimmy Anderson back in 1955-56.
- Tottenham manager José Mourinho has never lost a home game against Arsenal in 10 previous meetings in all competitions before (W6 D4) – versus no side has he faced more at home in his career without ever suffering defeat.
- Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 10 goals in all competitions against Arsenal – if he scores here, he’ll be the outright highest goalscorer in competitive Arsenal v Tottenham matches in history (currently level with Emmanuel Adebayor and Bobby Smith).
LIVERPOOL V WOLVES
7.15pm We finish the day with Liverpool hosting Wolves in what should be a great game. Liverpool steadied the ship midweek with a 1-0 win here over Ajax in the Champions League and that was badly needed after two poor performances. A 3-0 loss to Atalanta and a 1-1 draw with Brighton will always be a talking point but the xG figures were worse. They created an xG of only 0.20 against Atalanta and 0.32 against Brighton – conceding an xG of 2.22! They played much better against Ajax, but with their injury worries surely Wolves will fancy their chances of getting a result here.
Wolves have generally given Liverpool a tough time of things but Liverpool usually find a way to win. Wolves started the season slowly but they have improved as they have gone on and you’d have to say that they are back to themselves now. I feel we’ll see a close game here and I fully take on board Liverpool have found ways to beat Wolves in the past even when playing badly, but I feel the 1.57 on Liverpool is worth a small lay. I expect a closer game than those odds suggest with Liverpool not at their best recently.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Wolves at 1.57 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQlivWol
MATCH STATS
- Liverpool have lost just one of their 12 Premier League meetings with Wolves (W9 D2), winning each of the last seven in a row by an aggregate score of 15-2.
- Wolves’ only Premier League victory against Liverpool was back in December 2010, with Stephen Ward netting the only goal in a 1-0 win at Anfield.
- Wolves won 2-0 at reigning champions Manchester City last season – they could become just the third team to win away against the reigning Premier League champions in consecutive campaigns, after Liverpool (2000-01/2001-02) and Tottenham Hotspur (2016-17/2017-18).
- Liverpool (6) have dropped more points from winning positions this season than they did in the whole of last season (5), with their 1-1 draw at Brighton last time out the third time this campaign they’d let a Premier League lead slip.
- Liverpool are currently enjoying the second longest unbeaten home run in English top-flight history – 64 games. The Reds have won 53 of these (D11), scored 169 goals (2.6/game) and conceded 42 (0.7/game).
- After conceding seven goals in their first three Premier League games this season, Wolves have shipped just four in their last seven in the competition. Wolves are looking to pick up consecutive away league victories for the first time since June, alternating between defeat and victory in each of their last six on the road.
- 55% of Wolves’ Premier League goals this season have come in the first half of games (6/11), compared to scoring just 27% before half-time in the competition last term (14/51).
- Liverpool forward Diogo Jota scored 16 goals in 67 Premier League appearances for Wolves – he could become just the second player to score both for and against Wolves in the Premier League, after Stephen Hunt.
- Diogo Jota has scored in each of his first four Premier League home games for Liverpool – only three players have ever scored in each of their first five at home for a specific club in the Premier League; Alan Shearer at Newcastle (first 15), Les Ferdinand at Newcastle (6) and Jermain Defoe at Portsmouth (5).
- Pedro Neto has scored three goals in 10 Premier League appearances for Wolves this season, as many as he scored in 29 games in the competition last term. His three goals have been worth five points for his side so far.
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