THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League matches with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at 12pm with SOUTHAMPTON v WOLVES. At 2pm it’s WEST BROM v MAN U followed by ARSENAL v LEEDS at 4.30pm and EVERTON v FULHAM at 7pm.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

SOUTHAMPTON V WOLVES

12pm We have an intriguing Super Sunday ahead in the Premier League with some fascinating markets! We start at noon as Southampton host Wolves in what should be a very close game – it’s no surprise it’s the most open market of the day. It’s funny how the fixture list throws up these games throughout the season but these two played midweek in the FA Cup and Southampton ran out 2-0 winners. The same thing happened to Southampton in the last round of the FA Cup with Arsenal when they won 1-0 in the FA Cup and then lost in the Premier League – Wolves will be hoping for lightning to strike twice.

It’s fair to say both sides come into this fixture not having their best seasons. Southampton fans had a lot of fun when they topped the table for a weekend towards the start of the season but they have dropped down to the bottom half of the table now. Wolves are actually below them and have been poor this season. They usually fight for the Europa League spots but they just haven’t been themselves this season. I felt Wolves were going to get the job done midweek but that was proven to be wrong, however I’m happy to give them another chance here at 3.2. Those odds are worth a small bet as they played well against Arsenal and Leicester prior to the FA Cup loss.

The Striker Says:
One point win Wolves to beat Southampton at 3.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouwlv

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton have won just one of their last nine league matches against Wolves (D4 L4), winning 3-1 at St Mary’s in April 2019.
  • Wolves are looking to record consecutive away league wins against Southampton for the first time since winning three in a row between 1969-70 and 1971-72.
  • Southampton have dropped seven points from winning positions in their last three Premier League games against Wolves (D2 L1) – since the start of last season, no side has dropped more points against an opponent in the top-flight.
  • Southampton have lost their last five Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 26 (W13 D8). Saints have never lost six consecutive league games in their history.
  • Wolves haven’t opened the scoring in any of their last 13 Premier League games (W2 D4 L7). Only three clubs have ever had a longer run of Premier League games without netting the first goal – Manchester City in 1995 (16), Coventry in 1996 (14) and West Ham in 1997 (14).
  • Southampton are the only team to play a Premier League match on Valentine’s Day but not receive a card, with no Saints player receiving a yellow or red card in their 4-2 win over Liverpool in February 1994. All other 15 teams to feature in a Premier League game on that day have had at least one card.
  • Five of Wolves’ seven Premier League victories this season have come against London sides (Arsenal x2, Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Fulham). The other two have been against Yorkshire clubs (Leeds and Sheffield United), picking up just four points from 12 games against sides from outside these areas (W0 D4 L8).
  • Including penalties, Wolves are the only Premier League team to have scored more goals from set-piece situations (12) than from open play (11) this season. However, only West Ham (4) and Arsenal (4) have conceded fewer goals from set pieces than Southampton (6).
  • Takumi Minamino scored 30 minutes into his Premier League debut for Southampton against Newcastle last time out, having netted just one league goal in 531 minutes with Liverpool. The last player to score in each of their first two Premier League games for Southampton was Manolo Gabbiadini in February 2017.
  • Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse scored his fourth direct free-kick goal in the Premier League this season against Newcastle last time out – only David Beckham in 2000-01 and Laurent Robert in 2001-02 have ever scored five in a single campaign in the competition.

WEST BROM V MANCHESTER UNITED

2pm Manchester United are the shortest price of any side today as they are currently trading 1.34 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. West Brom have been very poor this season, but after United performed very poorly at home to Sheffield United I would think twice before lumping on them at short odds here. They threw away a two goal lead against Everton last weekend, and then threw away a 3-2 lead in the 95th minute. It’s fair to say their title challenge is over; however they only ended up in that position because other sides were dropping so many points. I feel they would have taken top four if offered at the start of the season, so it’s still a decent season for them. They will have a busy time from next week with the Europa League starting back.

There’s not much you can say about West Brom apart from the fact that they have been very poor. Big Sam hasn’t improved or changed much since coming in, and they are certain for the drop now after they lost to Sheffield United. It was always a tough ask, but that sealed their faith. United have been making so many mistakes at the back recently I feel West Brom can score at some stage, but United should come out on top. Over 2.5 goals is 1.57 but Both Teams To Score catches my eye at 1.9 and that looks much better value given the way United have played this season.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.9 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbamun

MATCH STATS

  • West Bromwich Albion have lost nine of their 12 home Premier League matches against Manchester United (W1 D2), shipping at least two goals in 11 of those 12 games and 31 in total.
  • Manchester United are looking to record a Premier League double over West Brom for the first time since the 2011-12 season under Sir Alex Ferguson.
  • Manchester United scored in each of their first 17 Premier League games against West Brom, netting 43 goals at an average of 2.5 per game. In their last eight against the Baggies, they have scored just seven goals, an average of 0.9 per game, and failed to score in four of those games.
  • West Brom have conceded the most Premier League goals this season (54), while Manchester United have scored the most (49). A goal for Man Utd will see them reach 50 in the Premier League in 24 or fewer games for the first time since 2012-13 under Alex Ferguson (20 games).
  • Manchester United are currently unbeaten in 18 Premier League away games (W13 D5), their longest such run on the road in top-flight history. There have been six longer runs by four different teams in the top-flight, most recently a 21-game run for Liverpool between January 2019-February 2020.
  • Under Ole Gunnar Solskjær, Manchester United have lost more Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone (W10 D2 L4) than they have against sides in the top four (W5 D5 L2). The Red Devils lost their last such game against Sheffield United, but haven’t lost consecutive top-flight matches against sides in the drop zone since 1992 (vs West Ham in April and Wimbledon in October).
  • West Brom manager Sam Allardyce won two of his first three Premier League matches against Man Utd, both at Old Trafford in 2001-02 and 2002-03 with Bolton. Since then, he has won just one of 22 matches against the Red Devils (D5 L16), winning 2-1 with Sunderland in February 2016.
  • Man Utd striker Edinson Cavani is looking to score in three consecutive league games for the first time since January 2019 with Paris Saint-Germain. The Uruguayan’s first three Premier League goals came as a substitute, while his last three have been as a starter.
  • 75% of Marcus Rashford’s Premier League goals for Man Utd this season have come away from home (6/8). He’s never netted more in a single campaign on the road than the six he has this season.
  • Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes averages a goal or assist once every 84 minutes in the Premier League, the best ratio of the 1685 players with at least five goal involvements in the competition’s history.

ARSENAL V LEEDS

4.30pm This is undoubtedly the most interesting game of the day and it deserves the prime TV slot. Leeds have had a bit of a mid-season wobble but their xG figures from their last three games have been very promising again. They created 1.97 against Leicester in a 3-1 win, 1.44 against Everton and 2.60 against Crystal Palace in a game they totally dominated. After getting into the top half of the table; two losses have put Arsenal back in the bottom half. Their 0-0 draw prior to that with Man United was undeserved looking at the xG figures, and their under-lining numbers have been very poor all season. At the moment, it looks like they have a long road ahead to even battle for a Europa League spot; never mind the fans shouting for top four.

Leeds might not be the most reliable side, but the Arsenal lay jumps off the page here at 1.96. I just can’t have them at odds on. I know Leeds will likely leave gaps at the back and that’s something that Arsenal will be able to take advantage of but I would still have Arsenal much bigger. They generally create very little and give up plenty of chances, and Leeds have been excellent going forward this season. Perhaps the best bet is in the goals market on overs here but I can’t get away from this Arsenal lay – it looks immense value.

The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Leeds at 1.96 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarllee

MATCH STATS

  • In all competitions, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight games against Leeds United (W6 D2) since a 3-2 defeat in May 2003 in the Premier League, a result which won Manchester United the title at the Gunners’ expense.
  • This will be Leeds’ fourth visit to the Emirates to face Arsenal, with the previous three all coming in the FA Cup in 2011 (1-1 draw), 2012 (0-1 defeat) and 2020 (0-1 defeat).
  • Leeds have failed to score in both games against Arsenal under Marcelo Bielsa (D1 L1) – the Gunners are the only team in his entire managerial career that Bielsa has faced more than once without seeing his side score, with 16 different Leeds players attempting a shot without success (43 in total).
  • Only the bottom four sides coming into this weekend have failed to score in more Premier League games than Arsenal this season (9). The Gunners last failed to find the net in more different league games back in the 2005-06 campaign (11).
  • Leeds are winless in their last 12 away league matches in London (D2 L10), their longest run without a win in London since a 19-game stretch between 1933 and 1938. They have lost their three Premier League games in London this season by an aggregate score of 10-2.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 27 home league games against promoted sides (W23 D4) since losing against both West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle in the 2010-11 campaign.
  • Since their goalless draw with Arsenal in November, none of Leeds’ last 13 Premier League games have ended level (W7 L6). The Whites are also looking to secure three consecutive Premier League away wins for the first time since August 2002.
  • Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa has won just 18% of his Premier League games against non-English managers (2/11), compared to 73% of his Premier League games against English managers (8/11). Of all managers to have taken charge of 10+ games against each, Bielsa has the biggest difference in win rates between the two.
  • Bukayo Saka has created more chances (26) and won more fouls (42) than any other Arsenal player in the Premier League this season, while only Alexandre Lacazette has scored (8) and been involved in (10) more goals for the Gunners than the teenager (5 goals, 2 assists).
  • Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has been involved in five goals in his last three Premier League games (2 goals, 3 assists). Eight of his 12 Premier League goals this season have been away from home (67%), with only Jamie Vardy netting a higher ratio on the road (82%, min. 10 goals).

EVERTON V FULHAM

7pm We finish Super Sunday with Everton hosting Fulham and I’m surprised to see Everton odds against here. When you compare this price to the Arsenal price earlier, I’d definitely choose Everton! Fulham are the side in 18th position and the only one with a small chance of getting out of the relegation zone, however they started the weekend seven points behind 17th and it’s highly unlikely they will be able to catch up, and then go past to safety. Meanwhile Everton have a chance, perhaps a small chance but a chance nonetheless, at finishing in the top four. After last weekend, they were three points behind Liverpool in fourth with two games in hand. Apart from the shock 2-0 loss to Newcastle too, they have been playing reasonably well.

Fulham went through a brief period of playing well but they haven’t been able to win many games. They have managed draws with Brighton, West Brom and then West Ham last weekend but Everton have been playing well enough to put them to the sword here. I would have Everton closer to 1.9 rather than the 2.02 available and for me it has to be worth the same kind of stake that the Arsenal lay is worth above. These two prices in the last two games of the day look wrong to me – hopefully we can get two good results.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Everton to beat Fulham at 2.02 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQeveful

MATCH STATS

  • Everton have won all 14 of their home Premier League matches against Fulham, the best 100%-winning record of any team versus an opponent on home soil in Premier League history.
  • The home team has won 23 of the 29 Premier League meetings between Everton and Fulham, although the Toffees won 3-2 at Craven Cottage earlier this season.
  • Since March 1961, Everton have won 22 consecutive home top-flight matches against Fulham – the longest ever home winning run for a team against an opponent in top-flight history, six longer than any other (Aston Villa v Sheffield United, 16 between 1903-1921).
  • Fulham have never won an away league match against Everton in 27 attempts (D4 L23) – in Football League history, the only two teams to play more away games against an opponent without winning are Fulham themselves versus Arsenal and Grimsby Town against Blackburn (both 28 without a win).
  • Everton are winless in three Premier League home games (D1 L2), last going four without a win at Goodison Park in January 2019. Manager Carlo Ancelotti hasn’t gone four home league games without a win since a run of nine between May-December 2007 with AC Milan.
  • Fulham are on the longest current winless run in the Premier League, failing to win any of their last 12 in the competition. However, eight of those games have finished level (L4), including each of their last four away from home.
  • Fulham have lost 30 of their last 34 Premier League games against the six ever-present sides in the competition (W1 D3), though their one win in that run did come against Everton in April 2019 (2-0).
  • No side has had fewer different goalscorers than Fulham in the Premier League this season (7, excluding own goals). The Cottagers also had the fewest scorers in their last top-flight campaign in 2018-19 (10).
  • Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s Premier League goals have been worth more points than any other players’ in the competition this season, with his 13 goals earning the Toffees 14 points so far.
  • Seven of James Rodríguez’s eight Premier League goal involvements for Everton this season have come in home games (4 goals, 3 assists), with his strike against Manchester United last time out his only one to come away from Goodison Park.

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