SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s two games including the highlight of the weekend LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL at 4.30pm both with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V CRYSTAL PALACE
2pm We have a fascinating Super Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! Two very interesting markets, two games that will have a big impact at the bottom and top of the table, and plenty of talking points too! All the headlines will be taken by Liverpool v Arsenal, but we kick off the day with Leeds hosting Crystal Palace. Both sides come into this game off the back of massive wins – Crystal Palace finally recorded a win last weekend with a hard fought 2-1 win against Leicester, while Leeds beat Nottingham Forest midweek. That win for Leeds was absolutely massive, that game was a true relegation six-pointer, and because things are so tight in the relegation battle this season they shot up the table. They still started the weekend only two points away from the bottom three however, so they have more hard work to do. Crystal Palace are only one point ahead of Leeds, they have never really been deemed to be in the mix for relegation this season but they have been very poor. They had to sack Vieira based on their performance level, morale must have been low after so long without a win, but not many would have thought Roy Hodgson would be back in charge of Palace at the age of 75!
It’s only been one performance, but based on Crystal Palace creating an xG of 2.84 last weekend I would suggest Vieira had lost the dressing room. There was a clear bounce in performance, a massive one at that, which usually means the manager wasn’t getting the best out of the players. That makes this game very interesting – Leeds will be happy to have home advantage again given they have been so poor away from home this season. They have only managed nine points away from home this season – they actually had the joint-lowest record until the win over Wolves before the International break. Palace have also been poor away from home, they have actually only managed one more point than Leeds. They are conceding an average xG of 1.6 this season and only creating 1.1, but with a change in manager I’m not going to put much weight on those figures. Leeds are also conceding a lot of chances, their average xG conceded is 1.7 and we could have an entertaining game here. Leeds look a little short at 2.16 – Palace did play really well last weekend, but let’s not get carried away by one game. I couldn’t put anyone off the Leeds lay at the odds, but I like Both Teams To Score at 1.94 in what should be an open game with plenty of chances.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Since returning to the Premier League in 2020, Leeds have won both of their home matches against Crystal Palace without conceding a goal (2-0 in 2020-21, 1-0 in 2021-22).
● Following a 2-1 win at Selhurst Park earlier this campaign, Crystal Palace are looking to complete a league double over Leeds for the first time since 1985-86, while it would be the first time ever in the top-flight.
● Leeds have won their last seven home matches against Crystal Palace in all competitions, a run stretching back to the 2006-07 season. The only side Leeds are on a longer current home winning run against are Bournemouth (eight wins in a row).
● Crystal Palace won 2-1 against Leicester in their first league game of Roy Hodgson’s second spell in charge, as many wins as they’d had in their previous 15 Premier League games (W1 D5 L9). The Eagles last won consecutive games in November.
● Since beating Chelsea 3-0 in August, Leeds United’s seven Premier League games played on Sundays have yielded just two points (D2 L5) and three goals scored, losing five of the last six.
● Leeds have won none of their last nine Premier League matches against teams from London (D2 L7) since a 3-0 win over Chelsea. It’s their longest winless league run against sides from the capital since an 11- game run between April 2015 and August 2016 in the Championship.
● Crystal Palace had 31 shots in their 2-1 win over Leicester City last time out, their most in a Premier League game since December 2018 (31 vs Cardiff). Palace only had 20+ shots in one of their 65 Premier League games under Patrick Vieira (22 vs West Ham in January 2022) and were averaging 9.9 shots per game under him this season.
● Leeds manager Javier Gracia is unbeaten in all three of his Premier League meetings against Crystal Palace and Roy Hodgson (W2 D1), all as Watford boss in 2017-18 and 2018-19. It’s the joint most he’s faced a side without losing (along with Southampton) and the most often he’s faced a manager without losing in the competition.
● Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has lost five of his six Premier League matches against Leeds United (83%), his highest losing percentage against a team he’s faced more than once in the competition. All three of his trips to Elland Road have been defeats without scoring, with Blackburn in 1997-98 (0-4), 1998-99 (0-1) and Crystal Palace in 2020-21 (0-2).
● Eberechi Eze has been involved in three goals in four Premier League appearances against Leeds (2 goals, 1 assist), although all have come at Selhurst Park. Eze or Odsonne Édouard could become the first Crystal Palace player to score home and away against Leeds in a league season since Neil Danns in 2010-11.
LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend as Liverpool and Arsenal take the prime TV Sunday afternoon slot! This is an absolutely huge game for Arsenal in the title race – you feel if they lose here the nerves will kick in. You have to say that they have an excellent chance of winning too; Liverpool have been exceptionally poor at the back this season and their issues show no signs of going away. Klopp opted to rest players midweek in the 0-0 draw at Chelsea, but they were lucky to get that 0-0 draw as they conceded an xG of 2.55. They didn’t offer anything going forward either – their xG created was only 0.25! Liverpool’s issues at the back have been well documented this season, they are conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season which is a figure we usually see from sides in a relegation battle. They have been better at home, however it’s a sign of the gulf in class between the sides this season to see Arsenal trading as favourites at 2.56. The home win is 2.84 and the draw is trading 3.85 at the time of writing. Given Arsenal have been so good going forward this season, their average xG created is 2.1 this season, it’s hard to see how Liverpool stop them from scoring. I think the most surprising thing about how poor Liverpool have been at the back this season is that Klopp seemingly has no answers, no changes to fix things, at times it’s been a car crash! Their only achievement this season will be beating Manchester United 7-0, and there’s no trophy for that.
You have to say that Arsenal come into the game in a great place. After being joined at the top of the table by Manchester City they have kept their heads and built up the lead again. They come into this game off the back of two 4-1 wins against limited opposition, but they have dealt with tricky situations away from home this season too. It won’t be easy to win at Anfield, but it is easier than usual this season. Arsenal have recorded seven more points than Manchester City from the same number of away games this season prior to this weekend, they have definitely had a backbone away from home this season. Of course, it is tempting to get drawn into the goals market here. Liverpool play such an open game it’s usually a good idea to opt for goals – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.72 which I couldn’t put anyone off to be honest. I would be surprised if we didn’t have an open game here, however Arsenal at 2.56 is my best bet here. Everything points to an Arsenal win, and Liverpool are there for the taking this season.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Liverpool at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have won their last six home Premier League matches against Arsenal, scoring at least three times in each game (22 goals in total).
● Arsenal are looking to complete their first league double over Liverpool since the 2009-10 campaign, while the Gunners last won consecutive league games against the Reds back in September 2012.
● Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in just 20% of their Premier League games against Liverpool (12/61), their lowest ratio in the competition. The Gunners have also failed to score in more different Premier League games against Liverpool than they have against any other opponent (20).
● This is the ninth time Arsenal have faced Liverpool in the Premier League while top of the league (W3 D3 L2), with the previous eight games producing a total of 33 goals at an average of over four per game (15 for Arsenal, 18 for Liverpool). One of those games came on this exact date (April 9th) in 2004, with the Gunners running out 4-2 winners at Highbury.
● Liverpool have won five of their last six Premier League home games (D1), including each of the last three by an aggregate score 11-0. The Reds haven’t conceded in any of their last seven hours and 26 minutes of league football at Anfield, since Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s strike for Leicester in December.
● Since briefly surrendering top spot to Manchester City following a 3-1 defeat in February, Arsenal have won their last seven Premier League games. They’ve scored at least three goals in six of these, including the last five in a row – only once in their league history have Arsenal ever won six in a row while scoring 3+ goals each time, doing so in September/October 1903 while in the second tier.
● Arsenal’s Leandro Trossard scored a hat-trick for Brighton away at Liverpool earlier this season. Only two players have ever scored at Anfield for two different sides in the same Premier League season: Dean Saunders in 1992-93 (Liverpool, Aston Villa) and Robbie Keane in 2008-09 (Liverpool, Tottenham), with no player ever doing so for two away sides in a single campaign.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in 105 Premier League goals in 105 appearances at Anfield for the Reds (74 goals, 31 assists). He is looking to score in four consecutive home league appearances for the first time since a six-game run between January and June 2020, while he’s had a hand in seven goals in five appearances against Arsenal at Anfield (5 goals, 2 assists).
● Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has won his last six home Premier League matches against Arsenal and is looking to win seven in a row at home against an opponent in his top-flight managerial career for the first time since doing so against Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga with Borussia Dortmund (2009-15). The last manager to win seven consecutive home English top-flight games against Arsenal was John Nicholson between 1921 and 1928 with Sheffield United.
● Arsenal keeper Aaron Ramsdale has kept nine clean sheets away from home in the Premier League this season. Only two keepers have recorded 10+ shutouts on the road in a single campaign – Petr Cech (11 in 2004-05, 10 in 2008-09) and Ederson (11 in 2018-19, 10 in 2021-22).
