SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the matches between DORTMUND v UNION BERLIN, HERTHA BERLIN v RB LEIPZIG and REAL MADRID v VILLARREAL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V UNION BERLIN
2.30pm We have a cracking Saturday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with action from the Bundesliga and La Liga. We start the day in the Bundesliga with a massive game between Dortmund and Union Berlin. These two have been “involved” in the title race this season, and you can say they are still involved too as Dortmund are just two points behind Bayern Munich with Union Berlin four points behind the German Champions. Of course, everyone still expects Bayern Munich to win the title this season, but things have been more interesting than usual this season. Bayern haven’t been at their best this season, have dropped more points than usual and sacked their manager during the International break. Thomas Tuchel started with a bang last weekend though with a 4-2 win over Dortmund – at the time I said that result was going to be massive as it would send a message! Dortmund just weren’t able to deal with Bayern, and had to give up their lead at the top of the table. Union Berlin were actually in a similar situation a few weeks ago, and they got hammered 3-0! While these two might not be at the level of Bayern, we should still have a high quality game here – it is second v third after all, and both sides are having a great season.
Dortmund seem to have dealt with losing Erling Haaland very well. Prior to the loss against Bayern Munich they had put ten Bundesliga games together without a loss. And let’s be honest, there’s no shame coming up short against Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. Union Berlin have been massively over-performing this season, for example they are only creating an average xG of 1.1 this season but their actual goals scored works out at 1.6. Eventually they will stop scoring from crazy positions, but you can’t knock them – they have took their chances and grinded out a lot of results. They also managed a 2-0 win over Dortmund earlier in the season when they had home advantage. That broke a run of three wins for Dortmund against Union, and they have a cracking home record coming into this game too. They’ve won their last seven home Bundesliga games, and they are rightfully trading odds on favourites here. The home win is 1.63 at the time of writing, which is a tempting bet but I prefer Over 2.5 goals at 1.88. Dortmund have been involved in some very open games lately, and I don’t expect anything different here. Union are scoring goals from all sorts of positions, and Dortmund will give them chances too. I expect a high quality game with plenty of action.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorUni
HERTHA BERLIN V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as Hertha Berlin host RB Leipzig. This is a massive game for both sides for different reasons. Every game is massive for Hertha Berlin at the moment because they sit in the bottom three. They are sitting in the relegation playoff spot at the moment so while they aren’t in the relegation zone, you can hardly call the playoff spot a good place to be! At the start of the weekend, there was only two points between the bottom three so they are very much in trouble, and there’s a little gap forming to the rest too so it looks like the bottom three are stuck. RB Leipzig need a win as well, since the embarrassing 7-0 loss against Manchester City in the Champions League they have put back-to-back losses together in the Bundesliga. They’ve dropped out of the Top Four after losing to Bochum and Mainz, and missing out on Champions League football next season would be a disaster. They started the weekend six points off the top three, but obviously Dortmund and Union Berlin play each other this weekend – I would suggest the top three will still be the same positions by the end of the season so it looks between Freiburg and RB Leipzig for that fourth spot. If RB Leipzig are going to take that fourth spot, they can’t afford to drop points against sides sitting in the bottom three.
RB Leipzig come into the game as the odds on favourites, but they aren’t trading a massively short price. They are 1.66 at the time of writing, reflecting the fact that they have been disappointing on the road this season. Just because Hertha Berlin are in the bottom three doesn’t make this a straight forward win for RB Leipzig. Hertha Berlin’s issues this season have mainly come away from home – they have only managed five points away from home all season which is the lowest return in the Bundesliga this season. RB Leipzig were very poor at home against Mainz last weekend – they conceded an xG of 2.42 and only created 0.69. Obviously Hertha Berlin have been playing average football this season, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the odds on RB Leipzig. Given the goals and chances Leipzig have been conceding recently, I feel Hertha can find the net at some stage – Both Teams To Score is trading 1.87 and this looks a nice position. Hertha have managed to score in their last seven Bundesliga games, and they can make it eight here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HerRbl
REAL MADRID V VILLARREAL
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday as Real Madrid host Villarreal. Real Madrid come into this fixture buzzing after a huge 4-0 win over Barcelona on Wednesday night in the latest El Clasico, this time in the Copa del Rey. They went into that tie 1-0 down after the first leg, and then obviously they had lost the last El Clasico which gave Barcelona a 12 point lead at the top of La Liga. It was a much needed win for Real because Barcelona looked a level above them this season, and although the La Liga title race is over Real Madrid will surely win the Copa del Rey now. They play Osasuna in the Final. They also have a huge Champions League Quarter-Final next week against Chelsea on Wednesday night. They have home advantage in the first leg of that tie, and then with all the drama around Chelsea at the moment they will really fancy their chances – as I write this the word is Frank Lampard is taking over until the end of the season but that is not confirmed yet. It seems madness, but that’s Chelsea for you. We also have to consider going into this game that Real Madrid could easily rest a number of players here – they had a tough game Wednesday night and the title race is over in La Liga so they are going to focus on the Champions League now.
The home side still come into the game as the heavy odds on favourites however. They are trading 1.56 at the time of writing – I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at those odds because I would expect changes to the starting XI, and we could easily see a lot of movement around the team news here. That’s one for market traders to focus on! Villarreal might see this game as a good chance to spring a surprise, especially if we get changes, and they come into the game on a good run too. They have won four of their last five, they drew 1-1 with Real Betis but created a bigger xG figure than they conceded there and have been playing good football. Their last five xG figures read 2.78, 1.63, 1.58, 2.52 and 1.75. We should get an entertaining game here, and Villarreal have definitely created enough in recent weeks to suggest they can score at some stage. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.66, but I like Both Teams To Score at the bigger price of 1.8.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaVil