SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews TOTTENHAM v ARSENAL and EVERTON v MAN U both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TOTTENHAM V ASTON VILLA
2pm We have a cracking Super Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as the Premier League returns to action after the International Break! We have two fascinating fixtures to get our teeth into, and two very open markets too. We kick off the action with Spurs hosting Aston Villa – this should be a high quality game but obviously Spurs went into the International Break in a mini crisis after losses against Chelsea and Wolves. I’ve said over the past few weeks that we’ve all just been waiting for them to implode and do something “Spursy” – the Chelsea game just didn’t go to plan, but the 2-1 loss to follow up is just classic Spurs, even with all the injuries and players missing. The International Break came at a good time for them in that sense, but the reality is they aren’t in the title race; they just have to settle down now and focus on getting a Top Four finish which is achievable given how many points the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea have already dropped. This should be a tough test for Spurs with Aston Villa playing some superb football under Unai Emery. Spurs come into the game as the favourites, but we do have a very open market. Spurs are 2.42 with Aston Villa 2.94 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing.
Spurs started the season on fire and Ange Postecoglou had the club buzzing, but back-to-back losses means they can fall out of the Top Four with a loss here. Aston Villa are only one point behind them, and who knows – they could be eying up a Top Four finish too! A win here would massively boost their chances in fairness; they have a little cushion on the rest already. Spurs have been creating more than Villa, but they have also been conceding more chances. The average xG created for Spurs is a very high 1.74, but obviously their system has to change with all the injury and card issues – their overall performance level is +0.35 whereas Aston Villa have an overall performance level of +0.42 which actually puts them into the top four on that metric. They have been solid at the back – they’ve only conceded an average xG of 1.17 which is the best figure outside of Manchester City and Arsenal. This should be a fascinating game, and even though we have a very open market I would have the sides even closer together. The 2.42 on Spurs offers a good value lay in my opinion with Villa playing such good football – I wouldn’t even be surprised if they managed to win but I’m also happy to have the draw on our side.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Aston Villa at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TtmAst
EVERTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm We have one of the most open markets of the Premier League weekend here as Everton host Manchester United. It’s a sign of the times that United come into this game trading as big as 2.62, but they just haven’t been good enough this season. Everton are trading 2.88 while the draw is 3.6. Everton hit the headlines during the International Break because they got slapped with a ten point deduction – football fans were rightly asking what’s in store for Manchester City; answers on a postcard there! Anyway, that points deduction left Everton back in the relegation zone with just four points – they are back in the relegation battle for the time being anyway! Despite that massive blow, they have been playing such good football this season I don’t see a major problem for them – they were one of the favourites to go down at the start of the season but their performance level has been very good. Their average xG created is 1.5 which is basically midtable level and nowhere near the relegation battle. Compare that figure to Newcastle at 1.53 and Manchester United at 1.54. Everton have actually been playing better football than United this season because they have been more solid at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.33 while United are conceding an average of 1.48.
United have consistently had issues at the back for a while now. Their average xG conceded was 1.65 in 2021/22 and 1.49 in 2022/23 – the problem this season has been their issues going forward. Both sides they were creating much more, and this season they have had major issues even converting the chances they have been creating. Everton have been excellent at home this season too; their average xG conceded is only 1.11 here and their average created is 1.73. Compare that to United who have been conceding an average of 1.55 away from home and creating less. I know there’s a little gulf in class between the teams and squads in general here, but based on performance level this season it’s my opinion that we have the wrong favourites here. We’ve had great success taking on this United side this season and I’m very happy to be against them here. I feel we’re getting so much value on the United lay that it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Everton at 2.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EvrMun
