SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s action which starts with the blockbuster MAN CITY v LIVERPOOL at 12.30pm. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER CITY V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm The Premier League returns on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this Saturday, and we’re back with a BANG as Manchester City host Liverpool! We have an exceptionally busy day as we return to action with seven fixtures to go through, but there’s no doubt what is the highlight fixture this week. There’s also no doubt Jurgen Klopp will be moaning about the timing of this fixture; Liverpool have played a lot of 12.30pm fixtures after International Breaks. It doesn’t allow for much time with players travelling all over the world, and maybe we could not have a fixture at this time to fix that – but I doubt the Premier League will do that! Anyway; this should be an absolute cracker and no doubt we’ll have plenty of drama by the end of the 90 minutes! It’s also a top of the table clash with Manchester City going into the International Break top and Liverpool just one point behind. If you look at the Outright betting, Arsenal are still second favourites but the gap between Arsenal and Liverpool is a lot smaller than at the start of the season. Manchester City have looked levels above everyone else though, and they have got shorter in the betting despite dropping points along the way. Liverpool have had issues at the back, as they seemingly always do, but we do have the best two attacking sides here.
They are the only two sides in the Premier League with an average xG of 2.0 or over – Manchester City are currently top with 2.05. The major difference here is that City are much better at the back – they have an average xG conceded of just 0.90 while for Liverpool it’s 1.37 which is basically a midtable figure. Their superb attacking gets them out of trouble, but you can see why Arsenal are second favourite despite both of them being on the same points. City come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.74 with Liverpool 4.8 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. The market is also expecting goals – Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.55, but given the attacking talent on the display and how neither side sits back, I would suggest that there’s still value in that price. We have consistently seen goals between these two; seven of the last eight meetings have had Over 2.5 goals. The game that didn’t have Overs, Liverpool won 1-0 but Manchester City finished the game with an xG of 2.03 so there could have easily been plenty more goals. I do like the City price at 1.74 with home advantage, but at 1.55 I feel Over 2.5 goals is a Max Bet. I can only see goals here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MncLiv
BURNLEY V WEST HAM
3pm We have a very busy afternoon ahead with five games kicking off at 3pm, the first of which is Burnley hosting West Ham. We had a decision over the International Break that could have a massive impact on the relegation battle with Everton getting deducted ten points. That has put them back to just four points, but Burnley still sit rock bottom on goal difference. Everton have also played much better football, so they will likely bounce out of the relegation zone in a few weeks. Burnley have really struggled at the start of the season – with them running away with the Championship last season they weren’t thought about as heavy relegation favourites this season, but they are in a massive battle now. As I said over the last few weeks, it only takes a couple more losses and when you’re nailed to the bottom of the table morale can dip very quickly. Then you’re really in trouble. They’ve actually gone odds on to go back down along with Sheffield United and Luton Town. Those three clubs are the only sides in the Premier League with an average xG created of under 1.0, so you can see why they are struggling. Burnley aren’t in the bottom three for chances conceded, but they are still in the bottom five with an average xG conceded of 1.63 which is quite poor.
What makes this game interesting is West Ham have been exceptionally poor at the back this season. Their average xG conceded is higher than Burnley at 1.75 – sides haven’t been taking their chances against them, and it’s highly debatable if Burnley are good enough to even take advantage but that record at the back is a major red flag for West Ham this season. The Hammers come into this game as the 2.1 favourites with Burnley 3.8 and the draw is 3.75. Obviously there aren’t many positives about Burnley this season, but West Ham have conceded a lot of chances away from home this season. Their average xG conceded away from home is a whopping 1.89 and it’s hard to justify them being 2.1 favourites off the back of that. I’m definitely keen to keep stakes small here however, it takes a brave punter to support Burnley, but I do feel the game will be closer than odds of 2.1 suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) West Ham to beat Burnley at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurWhu
LUTON TOWN V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have Luton Town host Crystal Palace, and this is another very interesting market. We actually have a very competitive weekend in the Premier League this weekend – from the schedule over the three days we actually only have two odds on favourites. Manchester City against Liverpool and Arsenal against Brentford. It’s not often that the shortest price of the weekend is 1.74! We have a very similar market here to the above game, with the away side just a little bigger. Crystal Palace are favourites at 2.18 with Luton Town 3.9 and the draw is 3.45. Luton Town would have been happy to see the ten point deduction for Everton, and now they start this weekend sitting just outside the relegation zone. Given the level that they have been playing to however, they are still long odds on to go back down. They just haven’t had the money to compete, and money talks in the Premier League these days! There isn’t a huge gap between the sides going forward here, but the difference is Palace have been much more solid at the back.
Luton have struggled to create chances. As I said above, they are one of only three sides with an average xG of under 1.0 in the Premier League this season. Their average xG created is 0.93, whereas Crystal Palace are creating an average of 1.13. Not a great figure either to be honest, but at least it’s better than Luton. The big difference is Luton are conceding an average xG of 1.78, which is the second worst record at the back in the Premier League this season while Crystal Palace are conceding an average of 1.39. The reality is we have two fairly average sides here, but Palace have been playing to a higher standard. You can see why they aren’t odds on, but they are rightly favourites and you wouldn’t want to take them on. I find it hard to make the case for Palace being a lot shorter, so I’m going to stay out of the match odds market. We have two very limited sides going forward here, and Under 2.5 goals is appealing at 1.76. Both Teams Not To Score is also a nice option at 1.95, but I prefer the Under 2.5 goals option. You wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 here!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutCry
NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA
3pm When I saw the fixture list for today, I was shocked this was a 3pm game! Newcastle v Chelsea should definitely be a big TV slot game these days, even with the European commitments for Newcastle next week. We should have a fascinating game ahead though, and we also have the most open market of the day too. Newcastle are the favourites at 2.62 with Chelsea 2.86 and the draw is 3.6. It’s fair to say both sides need a win here; Newcastle dropped out of the top six before the International Break after losing to Bournemouth while Chelsea have been dropping points left, right and centre this season! Kieran Tripper was videoed arguing with Newcastle fans after the Bournemouth loss; they did have a lot of injuries and it’s amazing how quickly football fans forget the past – it wasn’t so long ago Newcastle were in the relegation fight and now they are fighting for European spots – of course losses come at some stage. Whereas with Chelsea, you actually wouldn’t blame the fans for arguing with the players given how they have played over the last two seasons!
Chelsea have shown plenty of signs of improvement under Mauricio Pochettino, and now they just need to start winning games. Their average xG of 1.66 is top six form, and they should be competing for European spots this season not sitting in midtable. Newcastle haven’t been as good this season as they were last season, and they are suffering with plenty of injury worries. However, their home form is still very strong – they haven’t been conceding that many chances at home either. The thing is though, Chelsea away from home have an average xG of 1.71 which is very high. I know it’s hard to support Chelsea because they have dropped so many points this season, but you can clearly see that they are playing good football – they desperately lack a natural goal scorer though! I’m going to keep stakes small here, but I’m happy to be against Newcastle with their current issues at 2.62. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chelsea manage to win here, but it’s nice to have the draw on our side as well.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Chelsea at 2.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewChl
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V BRIGHTON
3pm Another interesting market next as Nottingham Forest host Brighton. Nottingham Forest start the weekend with an eight point advantage over the bottom three – after being heavily involved in the relegation battle it’s a very nice start to the season for them. To be honest, at this stage it would be a surprise if the three clubs who came up from the Championship didn’t go back down, even with the Everton ten point deduction factored in. Those three clubs are all creating an average xG of under 1.0, but the next worst record is Nottingham Forest with an average xG of 1.05 so that’s definitely something to worry about for Forest fans. They are conceding an average xG of 1.57, which puts them in the bottom six on their record at the back. Basically what that all means is outside of the three clubs who came up from the Championship, and are all odds on to go back down at the moment, Nottingham Forest are the next worst performing club. They have had some brilliant wins already though, so I don’t see them being in trouble. They definitely need to start playing better though.
A club who don’t have to worry about their performance level is Brighton, but they do need to worry about their results. After an exceptionally strong start to the season, they have now gone six games without a win. They have had to play Manchester City and Liverpool in their run, but you’d have to be disappointed with 1-1 draws against Fulham, Everton and Sheffield United. Especially the Fulham and Sheffield United games that were at home. Their average xG is still 1.68 which is the fifth best attacking stat in the Premier League this season, but they seem to be struggling in front of goal again! It’s easy to see why punters would want to lay Brighton here, but they do make appeal at 2.32. Nottingham Forest are trading 3.3 and the draw is 3.75. There aren’t many positives with Forest this season, but they are grinding out results and Brighton are struggling. I’m going to keep stakes limited here, but I feel the 2.3 is big enough to take a chance on Brighton breaking their run without a win here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotBha
SHEFFIELD UNITED V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Sheffield United hosting Bournemouth, and we have an exceptionally similar market to the game above here. Bournemouth are the favourites at 2.28 with Sheffield United 3.4 and the draw is 3.6. We have two clubs heavily involved in the relegation battle here, but recent wins for Bournemouth over Burnley and Newcastle has given them a nice boost. They start this weekend with a four point cushion over Sheffield United in the relegation zone. Without sounding too dramatic about the situation, this is definitely a must win game for Sheffield United. They are long odds on to get relegated back down to the Championship, and their performance levels are so poor too. If they are going to have any chance of staying up they need to win games like this. The International Break probably came at a bad time for them as they beat Wolves and drew 1-1 with Brighton – they had built up a bit of momentum. When you look at the stats, it’s hard to see anything positive about Sheffield United this season. Their average xG created of 0.79 is the worst attacking record in the Premier League, and then their average xG conceded of 1.95 is also the worst defensive record! Where do you even start when you have so many issues.
Bournemouth haven’t been playing that badly, but they are still very average. Their average xG conceded is 1.77 which is the third worst record at the back this season – they are creating more than the other sides in the relegation zone at 1.32 however. It’s hard to support Sheffield United in the markets to be honest, but the 2.28 does feel a little short on Bournemouth. I would expect a closer game than the odds suggest. Even keeping stakes very small, I still don’t feel comfortable laying Bournemouth and thus supporting Sheffield United here. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 2.05. We have two very limited sides going forward, but obviously they do leak a lot of chances – the thing is though; will they be good enough to take advantage? I’m happy with a small position on Unders.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheBou
BRENTFORD V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish the day with Brentford hosting Arsenal. We have a fantastic day ahead as we return to Premier League action, and this is a nice game to finish too! Brentford have been playing a very open game this season, and with Arsenal not really sitting back you’d have to expect an entertaining game here. Brentford are basically creating what they are conceding this season – their average xG created is 1.48 while their average conceded is 1.49. Arsenal have been a lot more solid at the back, and better going forward. Their average xG conceded this season is only 0.88 which is the best figure in the Premier League coming into this weekend. The only other side conceding an average under 1.0 is Manchester City. They have also been superb going forward with an average xG of 1.70; their overall performance level is the second best in the Premier League and that’s why they are the second favourites in the title race behind City. They seem to have more backbone at the back this season, but obviously they did bottle the title race last season so the jury is still out on how they can handle the pressure if they get there.
With the big difference in performance levels, it’s easy to see why Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.81 at the time of writing with Brentford 5.1 and the draw is 3.9. Brentford have just played an open game at home and away this season, and I don’t see being at home as a major advantage for them compared to their away form – their figures are only marginal in performances at home and away. Arsenal have definitely been creating more at home, but they have been equally impressive at the back away from home too. Obviously with Brentford being so open, Over 2.5 goals is definitely an interesting bet at 1.98. I was actually surprised to see it trading so high when I clicked into the market; I know Arsenal have been fantastic at the back and that’s why you can get 1.9 on Both Teams To Score as well. I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.98 on Overs, but Arsenal look cracking value at 1.81 to get the job done here. They have been rock solid away from home, and Brentford will give them chances. The 1.81 is a confident bet to end a brilliant day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Brentford at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreArl
