SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s action including LIVERPOOL v MAN U at 4.30pm – all include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V BRIGHTON
2pm We have another fantastic Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! No doubt all the major talking points will come from Liverpool v Manchester United in the prime time TV slot, but we have three very interesting markets kicking off at 2pm before we get there. We start the day with a belter as Arsenal host Brighton; this should be a cracking fixture and you’d assume it will be very entertaining too. The market is expecting goals too with Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score trading odds on. Arsenal are shorter than those two bets however – they are trading 1.5 at the time of writing with Brighton 7.2 and the draw is 5.0. Both sides have been fantastic going forward this season – Brighton have an average xG created of 1.81 while Arsenal are just a little behind at 1.76 – both figures are in the top five attacking stats. The big difference between the sides however is at the back; Arsenal have a real backbone about them now under Arteta and their average xG conceded of 0.90 is the best defensive figure in the Premier League this season. Brighton have been decent at 1.29, but not as good as Arsenal.
I have to say the 1.5 on Arsenal doesn’t jump off the page. I would expect a closer game than those odds suggest. However, Brighton’s results lately have fallen short and I don’t have enough confidence in them at the moment to lay Arsenal. Brighton have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals; their average goals conceded is up at 1.75 which is miles away from their xG conceded. I know they have done better in Europe, but Brighton haven’t managed to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League yet this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.63 while Both Teams To Score is 1.78. Obviously Arsenal have been fantastic at the back this season, so I can understand the BTTS bet being bigger in the market however Brighton have been so good going forward I feel they can score at some stage. I think we’ll have a very open and end-to-end game, and Both Teams To Score is a nice position at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArlBri
BRENTFORD V ASTON VILLA
2pm Aston Villa fans must be living in dreamland at the moment as they start the weekend sitting in third – even ahead of Manchester City! They are back in action away to Brentford, and I’m sure they’ll be a very popular bet at 2.32 here – Brentford are trading 3.2 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Villa have been completely transformed under Unai Emery and there is a very good chance they can finish in the Top Four this season. Chelsea and Manchester United aren’t good enough for Top Four, Newcastle have dropped a lot of points so it’s only really Spurs that they have to beat! Brentford have been struggling this season, and they start the weekend sitting top of the bottom half of the table – they lost last weekend to Sheffield United which is obviously a massive red flag. Not only have Sheffield United been the worst side in the Premier League, they have the worst stats of any side in the major leagues in Europe! Brentford have come up short against the better sides, but they have been quite average against sides that, on paper, they should beat too.
I just don’t have any confidence in Brentford at the moment, and the 2.32 on Aston Villa looks an excellent bet here. Brentford are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating this season – the difference is only -0.04 which is basically mid-table form so it’s no surprise they start the weekend in 11th. Compare that to Aston Villa who are creating an average xG of 1.59 and in the top six on performance figures across the board. Not only have they impressed going forward; only Arsenal and Manchester City have a better defensive figure too. Obviously Brentford are much more comfortable at home, and they do create a little more and concede a little less – the same for Aston Villa comparing their home and away form. However, I still feel that the 2.32 is massive here. This Villa side is in a great place at the moment, and I feel we’re getting so much value here they are worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Aston Villa to beat Brentford at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreAvl
WEST HAM V WOLVES
2pm We finish the 2pm games with West Ham hosting Wolves. The Hammers had a massive game in the Europa League on Thursday night, and they recorded a 2-0 win over Freiburg to top their Group and head straight through rather than having to face a Champions League side in the knockout stage. That was a cracking result for them, but they have had issues in the Premier League this season and it will be interesting to see how they get on against Wolves. West Ham are the favourites, as you’d expect with home advantage, but they aren’t trading odds on – there are plenty of worries! The Hammers are 2.22 with Wolves 3.55 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. The main worry with West Ham this season has been their performance at the back – their average xG conceded of 1.73 is the third worst record at the back in the Premier League this season. Only Sheffield United and Luton Town have been worse at the back. In fairness, Wolves aren’t too far off that at 1.54 either and we basically have two very average sides here.
West Ham have been massively over-performing in front of goal, and that has been saving them. Their actual goals scored average is 1.63 but their average xG created is only 1.17. Eventually they are going to stop scoring from awkward angles, and then they have to deal with all their issues at the back. They face another poor side going forward here though; Wolves have an average xG of 1.11 which is the joint-fourth worst attacking figure in the Premier League. It’s hard to have confidence in either side here to be honest; both are poor at the back and they have pretty similar attacking figures too! I feel the 2.22 is too short on West Ham, but Wolves aren’t a side I want to support either. I would fancy Under 2.5 goals, but then both sides are so poor at the back. I think we’ll have a very close game here, closer than the odds suggest, and the draw is worth a small bet at 3.65.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuWol
LIVERPOOL V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend as Liverpool host Manchester United. This game couldn’t have come at a worse time for United, and you would genuinely worry for them here! They have a host of players missing, crashed out of Europe midweek with another loss at home and then got played off the park at Old Trafford last weekend in a 3-0 loss to Bournemouth. It’s just been a terrible season, everything seems to be going stale around United. Some fans are calling for Erik ten Hag to be sacked, egged on by the Uk media. That might actually happen given results – United would just then start the whole process over again – it’s a story we’ve seen before isn’t it? The players actually play for a new manager, and then get him sacked a season or two later. Liverpool start the weekend sitting top of the table, and they have completely faith in Klopp. Of course, he was given time when he first came in, finished outside the Top Four and we all know how long Liverpool had to wait for a title too. Liverpool did things right, despite owners not every fans likes either, but it seems everything is wrong at Old Trafford at the moment.
It’s not surprise to see Liverpool come into this game as the heavy odds on favourites. They are trading as short as 1.36 at the time of writing and if you fancy a shock, Manchester United are 9.0 and the draw is 6.4. It wasn’t so long ago that United would be favourites to win at Anfield, but those days are gone now. I can’t see past a Liverpool win here, and while there’s no prizes for tipping 1.36 shots I would recommend them for any Acca this weekend. This should be a routine win. I feel the only question here is how many goals can Liverpool score rather than will they win. Over 2.5 goals is trading only one tick bigger than Liverpool at 1.37. The market is expecting goals, Liverpool have an average xG created of 1.97 this season which is very impressive. They have beaten United 7-0, 4-0 and 5-0 in recent seasons. I can see a similar result here. I like Any Other Home Win (Liverpool to score four or more goals and win) at 3.45 in the Correct Score market. That’s a very nice price.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Any Other Home Win at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivMan
