SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v STUTTGART, LAZIO v INTER MILAN and REAL MADRID v VILLARREAL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V STUTTGART
6.30pm It’s a fantastic Sunday around Europe on on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have three top class fixtures from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga to enjoy – all crackers in their own right! We start the day in the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich hosting Stuttgart – it’s second v third clash and Bayern need a bounce back win after their embarrassing 5-1 defeat last weekend to Eintracht Frankfurt. Believe it or not, Bayern actually finished the game with a higher xG figure than they conceded, but there was no stopping Frankfurt and it’s very rare you see Bayern concede five goals! They still have a game in hand on Bayer Leverkusen at the top of the table, but they are now four points behind. Maybe we do have a massive title race on our hands again in Germany! While Stuttgart finished in the relegation playoff spot last season, they have made remarkable improvement this season. There’s a decent chance that they can even get Champions League football at the moment; their average xG created is 1.83 which is the third best attacking figure in the Bundesliga so they deserve to be sitting in third.
Even with Stuttgart having a fantastic season, there’s definitely a gulf in class between the sides and we cannot ignore that. Bayern come into the game as the long odds on favourites; currently trading 1.47 at the time of writing with Stuttgart 6.4 and the draw is 5.5. Thomas Tuchel named a very strong side midweek in the Champions League even though it was a meaningless game for Bayern; they won 1-0 away to Manchester United to knock them out of Europe. Bayern’s under-lining numbers are exceptional this season; their average xG created is 2.3 which is the highest attacking figure from the major leagues in Europe, never mind the Bundesliga. They also have the best defensive figure in the Bundesliga – the market is expecting goals here though with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.4. We usually see goals between these two however – the last nine meetings have had Over 2.5 goals and I feel this game screams goals too. Stuttgart have created enough to suggest they can score as well, and Both Teams To Score is a nice bet at 1.58.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayStt
LAZIO V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We move to Serie A next as Lazio host Inter Milan. Last season this would have been a top four clash, but Lazio have been well off the pace this season. They start the weekend sitting down in tenth, their chances of keeping their top four spot are gone but they did make it to the Last 16 in the Champions League so at least that’s a positive. Anyone who is a fan of xG figures would have seen this coming with Lazio – they were very lucky to finish second last season as their xG figures were very poor compared to the other sides around them. They only marginally created more than they conceded – just 0.04 in the difference which is basically mid-table level – ironically that’s where they are now! Their performance level has dipped a lot this season; their average xG created is only 1.1 which is the fifth worst attacking figure in Serie A this season. They are still keeping things reasonably tight at the back, and that seems to be their strong point this season. They come up against a superb Inter Milan side here though who start the weekend sitting top of the table. Their performance levels have been very impressive and it would be a surprise if they didn’t win the title this season.
Inter come into the game as the odds on favourites, they are trading 1.78 with Lazio 5.0 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I have to say it’s very hard to get away from the Inter bet here at 1.78; the only thing to decide in my opinion is what stake to use. Lazio have been so poor this season it’s hard to have any confidence in them, and Inter have been rock solid away from home too. Their average xG conceded away from home is only 1.04 which is top class. Lazio have been a lot more solid at the back at home compared to away, but they have created very little – they are actually marginally creating more chances away from home this season! I’m confident on the Inter win here and the 1.78 is a nice price, I’m not going to go with a Max Bet just because Lazio are clearly decent at the back at home, but Inter should get the job done here – I’d have them closer to 1.7.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Inter Milan to beat Lazio at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LziMil
REAL MADRID V VILLARREAL
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the day as Real Madrid hot Villarreal! Real Madrid come into this game as the red-hot odds on favourites; they are trading as short as 1.29 at the time of writing while if you fancy a surprise Villarreal are 10.0 and the draw is 7.0. Villarreal haven’t been the same side since Unai Emery left for Aston Villa – which in fairness was a surprising decision at the time. Villarreal were in Europe, pretty consistently too and Aston Villa were close to a relegation battle at the time. Just look at Aston Villa now; they could actually finish top four in the Premier League and get Champions League football. Villarreal have been all over the place at the back this season – their average xG conceded is 1.74 which is the worst defensive figure in La Liga this season. They start the weekend sitting in 13th and they are highly likely to miss out on Europe – the last time they finished outside the top seven was 2018/19. I’d be surprised if they finished in the top half of the table this season. The last place you want to come to is Real Madrid away when you have had so many problems at the back, and this is going to be a case of how many goals for Real rather than will they win.
With Real trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets here for some value. I would definitely recommend Real for any Acca this weekend though; it would be a shock if they didn’t win here. Their average xG created is 1.96 and they are coming up against the worst defensive side in La Liga here. With Jude Bellingham in the form of his life, it would almost be a surprise if he didn’t score! The market is expecting plenty of goals, Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.37 and the market is also expecting Real to do most of the work there because Both Teams To Score is 1.79. I feel Real can run riot here – everything lines up for plenty of goals here. Real are really firing in front of goal and Villarreal are just all over the place at the back. I like Any Other Home Win (Real Madrid to score four or more goals and win) at around 3.1 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win at 3.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaVll
