THE STRIKER: previews Tuesday’s Premier League matches, all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action is underway at 6pm.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

BRIGHTON V ARSENAL

6pm The Premier League fixtures just keep on coming over the Christmas Period and we have a busy evening ahead. It’s a shame that four fixtures kick off at the same time, but we have some decent markets to look at on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start with Brighton hosting Arsenal after Arteta’s men eased the pressure with a 3-1 win over Chelsea on Boxing Day. It’s fair to say that win came as a surprise given how good Chelsea have been this season and the fact Arsenal looked lost after a terrible run. This is an interesting game as Brighton have slipped down the table as they have gone six games without a win.

xG has said a lot about Arsenal this season in my opinion. There was a lot of buzz around them at the start of the season but you could see they were getting lucky with their results and the bad run was bound to come. While the headlines will say they stopped the rot by beating Chelsea – xG says they were lucky again. Chelsea finished with an xG of 2.73 to Arsenal’s 2.34. While Arsenal did well to win and score three times – they still have issues at the back. I can’t have them at 2.4 here, although stakes are kept low because Brighton aren’t winning – however their xG figures say they aren’t playing badly and can get a result here.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Brighton at 2.4 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhaars

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton won home and away league games against Arsenal last season – they’ve never won three in a row against the Gunners in league competition before.
  • After winning their first two top-flight away games against Brighton (4-0 in 1979, 1-0 in 1981), the Gunners are winless in their last five league visits to face the Seagulls (D1 L4).
  • Brighton have lost their final league game in just one of the last seven calendar years (W5 D1), doing so against Ipswich in the Championship in 2015.
  • Arsenal lost their final league game in both 2018 (1-5 vs Liverpool) and 2019 (1-2 vs Chelsea) – they’ve not lost their final league game in three consecutive calendar years since doing so between 1947 and 1949.
  • Brighton have won just one of their 16 home Premier League games in 2020, though that victory did come against Arsenal back in June. No team in Premier League history has won as few as one home game across an entire calendar year (excluding teams that were promoted/relegated).
  • Since beating Fulham 3-0 away on the opening day this season, Arsenal have netted just three goals across their last six league games on the road. The Gunners have failed to score from open play in their last five away league games, with their two goals in this run both coming from the penalty spot (vs Man Utd and Everton).
  • Arsenal have kept six clean sheets in their 17 Premier League away games under Mikel Arteta – their previous six away shutouts came across a run of 44 games. However, the Gunners haven’t won any of their 11 away league games under Arteta in which they’ve conceded (D3 L8).
  • Arsenal are looking to win back-to-back league games this season for the first time since their opening two games back in September. The Gunners scored as many goals in their 3-1 win against Chelsea last time out as they had in their previous seven league games combined.
  • Brighton’s Neal Maupay made his 50th Premier League appearance against West Ham, scoring his 15th goal in that game. Only five French players have scored more in their first 50 appearances in the competition, while it was the most since Alexandre Lacazette scored 20 for Arsenal in his first 50 between August 2017 and December 2018.
  • Alexandre Lacazette is Arsenal’s top scorer in all competitions this season, with six goals. All four of his goals in the Premier League this season have been the opening goal of the game, accounting for 67% of the times the Gunners have scored first in the competition this term.

BURNLEY V SHEFFIELD UNITED

6pm The situation for Sheffield United gets more and more desperate with each passing week. They are now completely detached at the bottom of the Premier League. Even West Brom managed to pull six points away from them. The reality is simple; they need to start winning games quickly or their season is over. Easier said than done of course. In my opinion they have been unfortunate, they have actually played good football at times but have been unlucky with results. The 1-0 loss to West Brom with an xG of 3.25 is a classic example. They were unlucky to lose 1-0 to Everton on Boxing Day too finishing with an xG of 1.13 to 0.60.

The problem with Sheffield United is that it’s hard to keep morale up in these situations, and how long can we keep saying that they were “unlucky.” The reality is they aren’t taking their chances and are giving up too many goals. Burnley have had a good run of results lately, but their xG figures haven’t really changed. They are still playing very average football, but they had an obvious confidence boost in the Wolves game after their results. Burnley are a little short for me at 2.4, and the draw makes appeal at 3.25 for a small bet in what should be a close game. I wouldn’t rule out a 0-0 and that’s worth checking out in the Correct Score market closer to kick off.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.25 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburshu

MATCH STATS

  • This is just the third Premier League meeting between Burnley and Sheffield United, with the Clarets winless in both meetings last season (D1 L1).
  • Sheffield United are winless in their last four away games against Burnley in all competitions (D2 L2), since a 2-1 win in the Championship in April 2008.
  • Sheffield United have only lost one of their last 12 away league games in Lancashire (W4 D7), going down 0-1 at Preston in December 2017.
  • Burnley have lost their last league game in just one of the last seven calendar years (W3 D3), though this defeat did come in their final game of 2019 (0-2 vs Man Utd).
  • When playing their final league game of a calendar year away from home, Sheffield United haven’t won since 1977 (3-2 vs Hull), losing each of their last 11 such games since then.
  • Sheffield United are winless in their 15 Premier League games this season – failure to win here would equal Queens Park Rangers’ Premier League record of longest winless run from the start of a campaign (16 in 2012-13).
  • Burnley have won two of their last three Premier League home games (D1), having won none of their six at Turf Moor prior to this run (D2 L4). The Clarets last won consecutive home league games in October 2019.
  • Sheffield United are winless in their last 13 Premier League away games (D3 L10), with their draw at Brighton last time out ending a run of eight straight defeats on the road.
  • Sheffield United are the only side without a clean sheet in the Premier League so far this season, with the Blades having conceded in each of their last 18 league games in total.
  • Both Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes found the net in Burnley’s home win against Wolves – the pair have each scored 20 Premier League goals at Turf Moor, more than any other player at the ground.

SOUTHAMPTON V WEST HAM

6pm These two say beside each other in the table after both sides could only draw over Christmas against weaker opposition. Southampton would have been very disappointed not to score against Fulham but they didn’t deserve to as they created very little, while West Ham played out a fair draw with Brighton. These two have played some good football this season and have been rightfully sitting in the lower half of the top half. West Ham have impressed me, while Southampton have been excellent at times. Of course they are coming up short against the top sides, as you would expect, but they have been rock solid.

From a betting point of view I like the Southampton lay here at 2.26. I feel that’s much too short in what should be a very close game. Southampton were poor at home last season compared to away, and West Ham have been creating chances for fun this season. I can see the Hammers scoring at least once and making life very difficult for Southampton. I expect a closer game than odds of 2.26 suggest and I have to lay the Saints at the odds. This should be a good game – perhaps even the pick of the 6pm fixtures.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Southampton to beat West Ham at 2.26 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouwhu

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton have lost their last two Premier League home games against West Ham, as many as they had in their previous 15 against them at St Mary’s/The Dell (W7 D6 L2).
  • West Ham have won each of their last five Premier League games against Southampton – in top-flight history they’ve only more consecutively against Coventry (9 between 1983-1987) and Aston Villa (6 between 1964-1967).
  • Southampton haven’t won their final league game in any of the last nine calendar years (D4 L5), since a 4-1 home win against Huddersfield in League One in 2010.
  • West Ham have won their final league game in just one of the last 11 calendar years (D3 L7), though that victory did come against Southampton in the Premier League in 2015 (2-1).
  • Southampton have kept seven clean sheets in their 16 Premier League home games in 2020, last keeping more in a single calendar year at St Mary’s in 2015 (8).
  • West Ham have won three of their seven away league games this season (D1 L3), just one fewer than they managed in the whole of 2019-20 (W4 D5 L10). The Hammers have found the net in nine of their last 10 away games, though the one failure in that run was in their last such game (0-3 vs Chelsea).
  • After scoring in 12 consecutive Premier League games, Southampton now failed to score in their last two in the competition. They last went three league games without a goal in September/October 2018 under Mark Hughes (5 games).
  • Since the start of July, West Ham’s Tomas Soucek has scored more Premier League goals via corner situations than any other player (5). Indeed, it is two more than opponents Southampton have scored in that time (3).
  • Against no side has Southampton’s Theo Walcott scored more Premier League goals than he has vs West Ham (6). However, he’s not scored in any of his last five against the Hammers, with five of his six goals against them coming between 2011 and 2013.
  • West Ham’s 20-year-old defender Ben Johnson netted his first Premier League goal against Brighton in their last match. The last player aged younger than 21 to score in consecutive top-flight Hammers appearances was Jermain Defoe in April 2003.

WEST BROM V LEEDS

6pm I have to say from all the fixtures this evening, this is the one I find the most interesting from a betting point of view. I really like Leeds here at 2.1. I take on board West Brom have managed to stop Man City and Liverpool from winning in their last three games and surely Big Sam will have a positive effect on them, but this Leeds price is incredible value in my opinion. You only have to look at the xG figures of both sides to see Leeds will suit this West Brom side. I said similar before Leeds beat Newcastle 5-2, and I can see this West Brom side really suited the Leeds tactics.

Leeds have really impressed me in the Premier League this season. They have created a host of chances, however the reality is they have also conceded too many chances and if they want to be successful long-term they will have to correct that. However, West Brom don’t create much going forward and I can’t see past Leeds outscoring them here. I’m very surprised to see Leeds at odds against and feel the 2.1 is a cracking value bet.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Leeds to beat West Brom at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbalee

MATCH STATS

  • West Brom have lost just one of their last six home league games against Leeds (W4 D1), with that defeat coming in their only previous Premier League game against them at the Hawthorns in August 2002 (1-3).
  • Leeds are unbeaten in their last three league meetings with West Brom (W2 D1) and haven’t lost either of their Premier League games against the Baggies (W1 D1 in 2002-03).
  • West Brom lost their final league game of 2019 (0-2 vs Middlesbrough) – they haven’t lost their last league game in consecutive calendar years since losing in 2001and 2002.
  • Leeds have only won their final league game in one of the last 10 calendar years (D3 L6), though that victory did come in their last game of 2019, a 5-4 thriller at Birmingham City.
  • West Brom have conceded eight goals in their last two home Premier League games, losing 1-5 against Crystal Palace and 0-3 against Aston Villa. They last conceded 3+ goals in three consecutive home Premier League games in April 2014.
  • In their opening 15 top-flight matches in 2020-21, Leeds have conceded 30 goals but also kept five clean sheets, the first club to do that since Middlesbrough in the 1936-37 season (30 conceded, 6 clean sheets).
  • West Bromwich Albion have had just six shots in two Premier League games under Sam Allardyce so far – opponents Leeds have had 28 shots across their last two matches and have only failed to have at least six shots in one of their 116 games in all competitions under Marcelo Bielsa (5 vs Millwall in October 2019).
  • West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has won just one of his four home games against Leeds in all competitions (D1 L2), with this his first meeting with the Whites since a 2-2 draw in charge of West Ham in August 2011.
  • Leeds goalkeeper Illan Meslier kept his fifth Premier League clean sheet against Burnley in their last match, becoming the youngest goalkeeper (20y 300d) to reach that tally in the Premier League since Joe Hart in December 2007 (20y 255d).
  • Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has scored 10 goals in 15 Premier League games for the Whites this season, the most by a player for a newly promoted club at this stage of a season since Kevin Phillips had scored 13 in 15 games for Sunderland in 1999-2000.

MANCHESTER UNITED V WOLVES

8pm We finish the day with Man United hosting Wolves as they have suddenly become “title challengers!” I noted before the 2-2 draw with Leicester that neither side have been playing like Premier League Champions, but it’s been an odd year and they are definitely in the mix. Liverpool had a chance to pull away and blew it with a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom so who knows – a run of wins will certainly put United in a superb position especially with a game in hand. Personally, I find it hard to get a read on United this season – they have pulled off a lot of comebacks but they have conceded too many goals for me. They can’t keep winning 3-2!

Wolves haven’t been themselves this season however, and while I feel United will fall far short of actually turning into title challengers, I believe they will beat this Wolves side and the 1.65 on offer is too big to turn down. Wolves pulled off a late 1-1 draw with Spurs but they were terrible against Burnley before Christmas and that fixture came away from home. Liverpool are a much better side than United, but they hammered Wolves 4-0 in an away game prior to Burnley too. I think today is an ideal time to back United and 1.65 looks ten ticks too big.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Wolves at 1.65 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunwlv

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester United haven’t lost any of their last nine home league games against Wolves (W6 D3), keeping six clean sheets in that run since a 0-1 loss in February 1980.
  • Since returning to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves are unbeaten in all four of their league meetings with Manchester United (W1 D3), despite conceding the first goal in three of these matches.
  • Manchester United haven’t lost their final league game in any of the last eight calendar years (W5 D3), since a 2-3 home loss against Blackburn in 2011.
  • Wolves lost their final Premier League game of 2019 (0-1 vs Liverpool) – they’ve not lost their last league game in consecutive calendar years since 1984 and 1985.
  • After a six game winless home run in the league, Man Utd have won two of their last three at Old Trafford (D1). The Red Devils scored as many goals in their 6-2 victory over Leeds as they had in their previous eight home league games combined.
  • Wolves have lost their last two Premier League away games, last losing three consecutively on the road in the competition back in April 2012.
  • Manchester United have conceded at least twice in each of their last three Premier League games, only shipping 2+ goals in more consecutively in the competition back in August 2001 (4). However, the Red Devils have avoided defeat in all three games (W2 D1), with West Ham the last side to have a longer unbeaten Premier League run while conceding 2+ goals (5 games in March/April 2016).
  • In their previous match against Spurs, Wolves’ starting XI featured seven Portuguese players, one of only three instances in Premier League history a team featured as many as seven non-English players in their starting XI for a match – Fulham had seven French players vs Middlesbrough in 2003, while Newcastle also had seven Frenchmen vs Liverpool in 2013.
  • Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has both scored and assisted in 29% of his Premier League appearances (8/28) – the highest ratio of any player in the competition’s history.
  • Edinson Cavani has scored three goals and assisted twice in the Premier League, all as a substitute. He is one of only six players to see their first five Premier League goal involvements come as a sub, while only three players have had their first six goals/assists as a sub: Lomana Lua Lua, Theo Walcott and Erik Nevland.

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