WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s games – including the potential title decider between MANCHESTER CITY v ARSENAL !! All with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V BRIGHTON
7.30pm It’s a massive night of Premier League football on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday! All eyes will no doubt be on Manchester City v Arsenal later on in the title race, but we have three fixtures to go through but we get to the big one. We start the evening with Nottingham Forest hosting Brighton, and the pressure is really on Forest at the moment. They have put together a long run without a win at the worst time possible – sides around them have been recording massive wins, and they find themselves sitting second bottom in a very weak position now. It’s been 11 Premier League games without a win, four losing games in a row and now they face a Brighton side playing very good football. They were involved in a long and intense FA Cup Semi-Final at Wembley on Sunday that went to extra-time and penalties though, and coming out on the wrong side of that is always going to zap your energy. I think after those games it’s fine when you win, but when you’re on the losing side it’s hard to bounce back. Forest will be glad to have home advantage, because they have been woeful away from home.
Forest have only managed six points away from home this season, and that’s been a major issue for them. Brighton, on the other hand, have been rock solid at home and they are actually in the Top Four on the away form table. Brighton come into the game trading as the odds on favourites at 1.58, and to be honest it’s hard to argue with the market here. There aren’t many positives for Forest at the moment – they gave it a good go at Anfield at the weekend but still conceded a host of chances. They conceded an xG of 3.41 in their last home game against Manchester United, and against a Brighton side who have been excellent going forward this season it’s hard to see how they stop them. Brighton are creating an average xG of 2.1 this season which is obviously very impressive. The FA Cup Semi-Final going to extra-time is a big for me, so I will reduce stakes to three points rather than a more confident bet, but I can’t see past Brighton here. Forest simply haven’t been good enough this season.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last seven home league games against Brighton (D4 L2), though this win did come the last time they hosted the Seagulls in March 2017 (3-0).
● After winning their first two top-flight games against Nottingham Forest in 1979-80, Brighton are winless in their last seven such meetings (D2 L5), with the only Premier League game between the sides ending 0-0 in October.
● After a nine-game unbeaten home run between October and March in the Premier League (W4 D5), Nottingham Forest have lost two of their last three at the City Ground (D1).
● Brighton have alternated between winning (4) and not winning (D2 L1) in their last seven Premier League games, beating Chelsea 2-1 last time out. Despite pushing for a European spot, the Seagulls have only won consecutive league games three times this season (August, November and January).
● Brighton have won their last three midweek Premier League matches, as many as they had in their previous 31 on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (D12 L16).
● Since the start of October 2022, when Roberto De Zerbi took charge of Brighton, only Manchester City (63.6%) have averaged more possession than the Seagulls (62.5%) in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest (37.5%) have the lowest possession average in this same period.
● Since keeping a clean sheet on his Premier League debut (v Leeds in February), Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Keylor Navas has conceded in each of his last 11 games, at an average of 2.2 per match (24 in total). Only once in his career within the big-five European leagues has he had a longer run of appearances without a clean sheet – 13 for Real Madrid between February and May 2017.
● Brighton’s Solly March has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 15 Premier League games, scoring seven and assisting five. Overall, he’s had a hand in 14 Premier League goals in 29 games this season (7 goals, 7 assists), as many as he had in his first five campaigns combined (142 games – 4 goals, 10 assists).
● Brennan Johnson has scored six of Nottingham Forest’s last eight Premier League goals at the City Ground, while seven of his eight Premier League goals overall have come at home. Among players with more than five goals in the competition in 2022-23, only Roberto Firmino (89%) has a higher share of his goals coming at home than Johnson (88%).
● Brighton defender Lewis Dunk leads all centre backs in the Premier League this season for completed passes (2,257), carries (602), and involvement in open play sequences that have ended in a shot (97).
CHELSEA V BRENTFORD
7.45pm We have two sides who desperately need a win next as Chelsea host Brentford. It’s been six Premier League games without a win for Brentford and five for Chelsea, but in between that run they lost twice to Real Madrid in the Champions League so it’s seven games in all competitions. Chelsea were totally outplayed last weekend by Brighton, and they didn’t get anywhere against Real Madrid in the Champions League either. The decision to appoint Frank Lampard is totally bizarre in my opinion, and it’s obvious he hasn’t got the talent as a manager to cope in the big games against the better sides and top class managers. Obviously his skills are less tested when Chelsea are at home to the likes of Brentford, but Brentford are an attacking side and with Chelsea conceding so many goals and chances, you couldn’t be confident on a home win here. Chelsea come into the game trading as the odds on favourites, and I personally couldn’t back them at 1.76. I feel like they have went backwards since Lampard took over – they haven’t played well since the 0-0 with Liverpool here – Lampard’s first game was the Wolves loss. Obviously this isn’t a game for big stakes, because Brentford come into the game without a recent win too and you have to admit that they have been a lot more comfortable at home compared to away from home.
They haven’t been poor away from home, they just create more chances when they have home advantage. They actually have the same amount of points as Chelsea do away from home this season, but they have played one game more. They were outplayed by Brighton and Manchester United recently, but they created an xG figure of 2.54 against Newcastle and were unlucky to lose. They finished with a higher xG figure than they conceded against Wolves and Aston Villa too. Brentford have been very entertaining this season – their average xG created is 1.8 and their average conceded is 1.6 – their games have been more enjoyable than watching Chelsea anyway! As I said above, I’m keen to keep stakes small here but I feel laying Chelsea is a nice position. Brentford are playing the better football at the moment in my opinion, and they will make the game closer than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Brentford at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After winning seven of eight meetings with Brentford in all competitions between 1946 and 2021 (D1), Chelsea are winless in their last two against the Bees (D1 L1).
● Brentford have lost six of their eight away games against Chelsea in all competitions (W2), though they did come from behind to win this exact fixture 4-1 last season.
● Chelsea have lost three of their last six Premier League London derby matches (W1 D2), as many as in their previous 14. They last lost four such matches in a single campaign back in 2001-02.
● Chelsea are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions (D2 L5), losing the last four in a row. They last had a longer winless run between October and December 1993 (11 games), which included a run of six straight defeats – the last time they lost 5+ consecutively.
● Brentford have failed to win each of the last four Premier League games that they’ve opened the scoring in (D3 L1), including last time out in a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa. Prior to this, the Bees had won 19 of their first 23 Premier League games in which they’d scored first, and never lost (D4).
● Chelsea have scored just 30 goals in the Premier League this season, their lowest after 31 games of a league campaign since 1923-24 (17). Despite the low goal total, these 30 goals have been netted by 14 different players.
● Frank Lampard has lost both of his Premier League matches in charge of Chelsea since his return. Including his time with Everton, he’s lost eight of his last nine league games, including each of the last five. Indeed, since he joined the Toffees in February 2022, no manager has lost more Premier League games than Lampard (23).
● Brentford’s Ivan Toney has been involved in five goals in his last five Premier League London derby matches (4 goals, 1 assist), more than he had in his first 12 such appearances (2 goals, 2 assists).
● Since his Premier League debut on February 3rd, Chelsea’s Enzo Fernández has completed more passes than any other midfielder in the Premier League (762). Indeed, he has been involved in more open play sequences ending in shots (55) and goals (4) than any other player for the Blues since his league debut.
● Ivan Toney has scored 19 goals for Brentford in the Premier League this season. Should he find the net in this game, he would become just the second player to score 20+ in a top-flight campaign for the Bees, after Dave McCulloch, who did so three times (26 in 1935-36, 31 in 1936-37, and 26 in 1937-38).
WEST HAM V LIVERPOOL
7.45pm There’s no doubt that Manchester City v Arsenal is the highlight fixture of the night, but this is probably the most interesting market. West Ham recorded another massive win at the weekend over Bournemouth and that has basically moved them out of the relegation battle. They were always very unlucky to go down, but they did find themselves in a very poor position. The UK media were reporting David Moyes was in a “win this game or you’re fired” position. Wins over Fulham and Bournemouth, along with a draw against Arsenal has saved Moyes job, for the moment anyway. Liverpool have put together two very entertaining wins and they should have beaten Arsenal prior to that too – however most of their poorer performances have come away from home this season. West Ham are clearly in good form too – their last xG figures have been 1.44, 2.09 and 2.50. It will be interesting to see how they get on against a Liverpool side who have been conceding a host of chances this season – their average xG conceded is 1.6 this season which is very high. When you look at the away form table, Liverpool have the same amount of points away from home as the likes of Crystal Palace and Brentford.
Liverpool are trading 1.92 at the time of writing, and I’m sure that price is going to have some big opinions on either side of the book. Liverpool had another rollercoaster game at the weekend with a 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest – but you can’t knock them going forward. They finished with an xG figure of 4.40 in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal – a game they were all over the place at the start but then should have won with their second half performance. Even when scoring six goals away against Leeds, they still conceded a goal. I’m going to stay away from the match odds market here, and I can’t get away from Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. Liverpool don’t know how to seemingly play a cagey game this season, and with home advantage West Ham will get a lot of chances here. The Arsenal game was very entertaining, and I can see a similar type of game with chances at both ends of the pitch. West Ham come into the game in good form too, I wouldn’t even be surprised if they win but Over 2.5 goals looks a cracking bet here at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● West Ham won this exact fixture 3-2 last season, last winning consecutive home games against Liverpool in 2014-15/2015-16.
● Liverpool have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against West Ham, with the exceptions both coming at the London Stadium (1-1 in February 2019, 2-3 in November 2021).
● Liverpool have won just one of their six Premier League away games against London sides this season (D3 L2), beating Spurs 2-1 in November. Having scored in 27 consecutive league games in the capital between August 2018 and January this year, Liverpool’s last two visits have both finished 0-0.
● After losing three consecutive home league games in November/December, West Ham have lost just one of their last seven at the London Stadium (W3 D3), scoring at least once in each match.
● Liverpool scored more goals in their 6-1 win in their last away league match against Leeds than they had in their previous eight on the road combined (4 – W1 D2 L5). Only once this season have they won consecutive away league games, doing so in November/December against Spurs and Aston Villa.
● West Ham will be looking to win consecutive Premier League games for just the second time this season (previously in October), after their 4-0 win at Bournemouth last time out. However, the Hammers have only won two of their last 20 games against opponents starting the day in the top half of the Premier League table (D5 L13), and both of those victories were against Fulham.
● Against no side has West Ham’s Pablo Fornals scored more Premier League goals than he has against Liverpool (3), netting to put the Hammers 2-1 ahead in their 3-2 victory in this exact fixture last season.
● Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in half of Liverpool’s 20 away goals in the Premier League this season, scoring eight and assisting two. The Egyptian has also been involved in seven goals in five league games against West Ham at the London Stadium (5 goals, 2 assists), with Raheem Sterling (9) the only visiting player to be involved in more at the ground.
● Diogo Jota – who has lost none of the 35 Premier League games he’s scored in – has scored braces in each of his last two appearances for Liverpool. The last player to net 2+ goals in more consecutive league games for the Reds was Luis Suárez in December 2013 (a run of four, with the second game in that run coming against West Ham).
● Saïd Benrahma has been directly involved in 5.4 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season (3.3 shots and 2.1 chances created), the most by a West Ham player in a single campaign (500+ mins played) since Dimitri Payet in 2016-17 (7.7 per 90).
MANCHESTER CITY V ARSENAL
8pm The Premier League have saved the best until last on Wednesday as Manchester City and Arsenal clash to decide the title! At the moment City are five points behind Arsenal, but two games in hand gives them the advantage. A draw here “wouldn’t be a bad result” for either side really. For City, it still gives them the advantage if they win their two games in hand and for Arsenal, a draw away to City is never a bad result. The reality however is that Arsenal need to win here – they have all the signs of a side feeling the pressure in recent weeks, and the draw against Southampton was a shocking result really. That was a game that they really should be winning – they were trading at 1.2 to win before the off. City have been finishing the season like a train, and they have just been relentlessly scoring goals and winning games. Their only game they didn’t win recently was the 1-1 away to Bayern Munich in the Champions League when they won the first leg 3-0 and just had to see how the 90 minutes. Arsenal really need to sort out their issues at the back; they’ve conceded seven goals in three games, and that doesn’t tell the full story either. They conceded an xG of 4.40 away to Liverpool, so you’d have to worry how much they are going to concede against a City team in top form.
Manchester City are trading 1.6 at the time of writing, with Arsenal 5.9 and the draw is 4.7. City are going to be a very popular bet at 1.6, and to be honest I couldn’t put anyone off a home win here. The only positive for Arsenal at the moment is that everyone will expect City to win here – that might take away the nerves that they have been feeling in recent weeks and free them up. Their average xG created is a very high 2.1 this season so they have been excellent going forward this season – the problem recently has been mistakes at the back and sloppy goals – the underdog tag here might actually suit them. How they deal with City is another matter though – City were able to win when they were away from home to go top, and then they dropped points after. This time around, it’s been Arsenal dropping points. I couldn’t put anyone off City at 1.63, but I do like goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading three ticks bigger at 1.63 than the city win and this game screams goals in my opinion. Arsenal have been conceding a lot of goals lately, and City always like to play an open game. I wouldn’t be very surprised if we didn’t see goals here, and the 1.63 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Man City have won all six of their Premier League home games against Arsenal under Pep Guardiola by an aggregate score of 17-3. They last lost at home to the Gunners in January 2015 (0-2).
● Arsenal have lost their last 11 Premier League games against Man City, their longest losing streak against an opponent in their league history.
● Arsenal have scored just three goals in their last 10 Premier League games against Man City, failing to score on seven occasions. They’d only failed to score in six of their previous 37 against the Citizens in the competition.
● Man City have beaten Arsenal twice this season, winning 3-1 in the Premier League and 1-0 in the FA Cup. They’ve already beaten the Gunners three times in a single season twice before (2017-18 and 2020-21) – only Liverpool have ever beaten them three times in three different campaigns (1994-95, 1996-97 and 2021-22).
● Manchester City have won eight of their last nine Premier League games, including their last six in a row. At home they’ve won 17 of their last 19 league games (D1 L1), though their last four defeats at the Etihad have been against London sides (Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Tottenham and Brentford).
● Arsenal have conceded at least twice in six of their last 11 Premier League games, including each of the last three in a row – they’d only conceded multiple goals five times in their first 21 this season. However, they’ve also scored at least twice in each of their last eight league games, last having a longer such run between August-October 2018 (9).
● Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has lost all six of his Premier League games against Man City – they’re the only side the Spaniard has faced but failed to beat as a manager in the competition.
● Bukayo Saka has scored Arsenal’s last two Premier League goals against Man City, though both of these have come in home games. The last Arsenal player to score home and away against Man City in the same season was Theo Walcott in 2016-17.
● Erling Haaland has scored 32 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, the joint-most ever by a player in a 38-game campaign in the competition. 20 of these goals have come at the Etihad Stadium, the most home goals by a player in a season since 2007-08 when Cristiano Ronaldo (Old Trafford) and Fernando Torres (Anfield) each scored 21.
● Gabriel Martinelli has been involved in 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League games for Arsenal (8 goals, 3 assists). Overall, he has 15 Premier League goals this season, the joint-most by a Brazilian player in a single campaign, along with Roberto Firmino in 2017-18.
