THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Thursday’s games between EVERTON V NEWCASTLE, SOUTHAMPTON V BOURNEMOUTH and TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED all with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V NEWCASTLE
7.45pm We have another superb night of Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Thursday with some massive games. Spurs v Manchester United will take the headlines, but we have two games that could have a massive impact on the relegation battle too. We start the evening with Everton hosting Newcastle – this is an interesting market, and I’m sure Newcastle will be a popular bet at 1.8 after hammering Spurs last weekend. Everton are trading 5.2 while the draw is 3.9, and to be fair to Everton they have been playing much better football since Sean Dyche took over. Unfortunately for them however they still sit in the bottom three – every Everton fan would have been glued to the Leeds v Leicester game on Tuesday night, and a draw there was a good result for Everton. They are one point behind Leicester and two behind Leeds. They’ve had a run of five games without a win, but they did have to play Chelsea away, Spurs and then Manchester United away. They finished the 3-1 loss to Fulham here with a higher xG figure than they conceded and they played out a very boring 0-0 with Crystal Palace at the weekend. They are playing some good football, obviously judging them from a low level, and while they might not be able to deal with this excellent Newcastle side they are giving themselves the best chance of staying up. They aren’t just waving the white flag.
Newcastle absolutely hammered Spurs 6-1 last weekend, we saw scenes of the Spurs fans leaving after 20 minutes with Newcastle 5-0 up! Newcastle put Spurs to the sword, but we also have to remember Spurs have been all over the place lately. In general though you can’t knock Newcastle this season – I know they were totally outplayed by Aston Villa recently but that has been rare this season. Their average xG created is 2.0 while they are only conceding an average xG of 1.1. Pretty bombproof stats at both ends of the pitch, and you can see why they are in the Top Four. I feel Newcastle will grind out a win here, but I respect the fact that Everton have been creating a lot under Dyche – with home advantage I feel the 1.8 on Newcastle is a fair price. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, and I like Over 2.5 goals at 2.07 – Newcastle have played an open game this season and they have been scoring plenty of goals too. Everton have always attacked at home under Dyche, and we should get a very entertaining game here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.07 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton have won just one of their last six Premier League games against Newcastle (D1 L4), though it did come in this exact fixture last season (1-0).
● Newcastle have won four of their last five Premier League games against Everton (L1), as many as they had in their previous 21 against the Toffees (D5 L12).
● Newcastle have won just one of their last 10 Premier League away games against Everton (D3 L6), a 2-0 victory in January 2021.
● Everton are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games played on Thursday (W4 D4) since a 2-0 loss at Hull on New Year’s Day 2015. However, the Toffees have lost each of their last three midweek (Tues, Weds, Thurs) Premier League games by an aggregate score of 9-1.
● Having kept a clean sheet in each of their first three Premier League away games following the World Cup, Newcastle have now conceded in each of their last six on the road. They lost 3-0 at Aston Villa last time out, last losing consecutively away from home in March/April last year.
● Newcastle have scored 54 goals in the Premier League this season, their most after 31 games of a top-flight campaign since 2002-03 (also 54), when they went on to finish third in the table. Their six goals against Spurs last time out were their most in a Premier League game since October 2015, in a 6-2 win over Norwich.
● Everton boss Sean Dyche has won six of his nine Premier League meetings with Newcastle’s Eddie Howe (L3), his most wins and highest win rate (67% – min. 4 meetings) against any manager in the competition.
● Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has scored six goals in his last five Premier League games against Everton, only netting more often against West Ham (12) in the competition. These six goals have come in three different games, netting braces in September 2019 (Vitality Stadium), November 2020 (St James’ Park) and January 2021 (Goodison Park).
● No Everton player has been directly involved in more Premier League goals at Goodison Park this season than Dwight McNeil (5). Indeed, he is the only Everton player to have both scored (3) and assisted (2) more than once in Premier League home games for the Toffees this term.
● In Miguel Almirón (11), Callum Wilson (11) and Alexander Isak (10), this is the first time that Newcastle have had as many as three different players reach double figures for goals in a Premier League season. Indeed, Arsenal are the only other side with as many players on 10+ goals in the competition this term (3 – Saka, Martinelli and Ødegaard).
SOUTHAMPTON V BOURNEMOUTH
7.45pm Southampton host Bournemouth next in a game that will have a big impact on the relegation battle. This isn’t quite a “relegation six pointer” with Southampton nailed to the bottom of the table and Bournemouth sitting five points away from Everton in 18th. Things could look very different for Bournemouth if Everton win and they lose here, but at the moment they look in a decent position to stay up. Bournemouth have some huge games to finish the season – they’re going to play Leeds and Everton in the run-in, plus they have to play Chelsea and Manchester United. A win here would give them a much needed cushion going into some big games, they could do without getting dragged into a relegation battle for the Leeds and Everton games – especially the Everton game because it’s the final game of the season! Southampton have to play Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool without their final six games, and they have very little chance of staying up. It goes without saying that this is a must win game, but a win wouldn’t even get them off the bottom of the table just back in touch in the relegation battle. I know they got a result away to Arsenal, but that was more to do with Arsenal fluffing their lines in the title race rather than Southampton’s excellent play. We should get a lot of answers from this game anyway – a loss for Southampton sees them nailed on to go down and really gives Bournemouth a big cushion to stay up.
You have to hand it to Bournemouth – they were long odds on to go down at some stages this season but they have really grinded out results. Recent wins over Fulham, Leicester and Spurs have been dramatic and fantastic – that’s not even mentioning the 1-0 win over Liverpool! Obviously we have two fairly limited sides here, and I was surprised to see Southampton trading as short as 2.36 when I clicked into the market. For me that price is much too short – Southampton haven’t even been strong at home this season. They are nailed to the bottom of the home form table with only ten points from 16 games – that’s five points off the side above them too. They have put in better performances away from home, I know Bournemouth aren’t what you would call a very reliable side, but I feel the odds are so far wrong here I’m happy to have a Max Lay on Southampton. I believe we’re getting plenty of value here and I expect Bournemouth to make it a much closer game than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Southampton to beat Bournemouth at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 1-0 win at the Vitality Stadium in October, Southampton are looking to complete their first league double over Bournemouth since 2010-11, when the sides competed in League One.
● Having won none of their first 12 league visits to Southampton between 1953 and 2019 (D4 L8), Bournemouth won their last away league game against Saints 3-1 in September 2019.
● The away side has won the last four meetings between Southampton and Bournemouth in all competitions, with Saints winning the last three by an aggregate score of 6-0.
● Bournemouth are winless in their last nine midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D2 L7), failing to score a single goal in their five such games so far this season (D1 L4).
● Southampton have lost 10 Premier League home games this season, their joint-highest number of home defeats in a single league campaign (also 1993-94 and 2019-20). Indeed, Saints have the fewest home wins (2), fewest home points (10), most home defeats (10) and worst home goal difference (-15) of any Premier League side this season.
● Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League away games, as many as they had in their first 14 on the road this season (D2 L10) – they’ve never won three in a row on their travels in the top-flight before.
● Having won two of their first three Premier League games under Ruben Selles (L1), Southampton are now winless in seven (D3 L4). They kept a clean sheet in three of their first four under the Spaniard, but have since conceded in each of the last six (15 goals in total).
● Since his first Premier League start in February, Carlos Alcaraz has scored more league goals than any other Southampton player (3). All three of his strikes have put Saints 1-0 up in the match, including a strike after just 27 seconds against Arsenal last time out.
● Southampton’s Theo Walcott has been involved in three goals in his last five Premier League appearances (2 goals, 1 assist), as many as he had in his previous 35. He’s looking to score in consecutive league games for the first time since August 2018 while at Everton, the second game of which was against Bournemouth.
● Philip Billing has scored five away goals for Bournemouth in the Premier League this season, with only Josh King in 2016-17 and Callum Wilson in 2018-19 (both 9) ever netting more on the road in a single campaign for the Cherries. Meanwhile, Dominic Solanke has scored four away league goals this season – it’s never happened that two Bournemouth players have scored 5+ away goals in a single Premier League campaign.
TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
8.15pm The Premier League have saved the best until last again tonight as Spurs host Manchester United to finish the evening. It’s been an eventful time for both clubs recently – I suppose when are things not eventful for both of these clubs! Spurs have been the laughing stock of the Premier League lately, and Newcastle hammering them 6-1 last weekend didn’t help that. They had to win that game to have any chance of a Top Four finish, but now their chances are almost gone – I suppose a win here might put them back into the mix, but even then I would give them no chance. Manchester United have been on a Cup rollercoaster over the last week – last Thursday they got dumped out of the Europa League with a very poor performance away from home, and then they got through Brighton at Wembley at the weekend to reach the FA Cup Final. Spurs will be hoping the same United turn up that played Sevilla last week! Spurs have to play Liverpool at the weekend as well, and to be honest with their Top Four hopes almost gone that’s going to have a massive knock on effect this summer. Will Harry Kane want to stay? I would suggest not – him leaving and the ability to attract star names suffering a big blow with no Champions League football means they could be missing out on a Top Four finish for a few years. It was a gamble taking on Conte, especially with his hot-header nature, and in hindsight it has massively backfired now. He’s left them in a worse position than when he arrived.
As you would expect with question marks about both sides, we have a very open market. Manchester United are trading as favourites at the time of writing, they are currently 2.54 with Spurs 2.88 and the draw is 3.8. Spurs have been all over the place against Bournemouth and Newcastle, it’s hard to have any faith in them. Most of the poorer United performances this season have come away from home, and it’s hard to have any great faith in them either. I feel the best option here is keeping stakes small – even if you approach the game from an Under/Over 2.5 goals point of view; Spurs have been very open recently while United have had Unders win in four of their last six in all competitions – plus the two times Overs won was in Europe not domestically. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but the draw makes a lot of appeal at 3.8. Spurs have been better at home, and United are prone to a mistake at the back as well – I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-1 here, or a boring and cagey 0-0.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have lost their last four Premier League games against Man Utd, last having a longer losing run against them between September 2001 and September 2004 (7).
● Manchester United have won 39 Premier League games against Tottenham – no side has beaten an opponent more often in the competition.
● Spurs have won just three of their last 21 Premier League home games against Man Utd (D7 L11), with these victories all coming consecutively between April 2016 and January 2018.
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last 15 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (W9 D5), and are unbeaten in all seven such matches this season (W5 D2).
● None of Tottenham’s last 26 Premier League home games have been drawn (W18 L8), while none of their last 108 at home have finished goalless. It’s the longest run any team has had without a 0-0 draw at home in the competition, while the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (78 games) is one of just three grounds never to see a goalless draw in the Premier League (also Burnden Park and Oakwell, 19 games each).
● Manchester United have won their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score 5-0. They’ve not won 4+ in a row without conceding within the same campaign since a run of six in February/March 2013 in their final season under Sir Alex Ferguson.
● Manchester United have conceded 29 away goals in the Premier League this season, only ever shipping more on the road in a single campaign last term (35). They’ve conceded just eight goals at home, with their difference of 21 goals conceded between home and away games currently their biggest such gulf in a Premier League season.
● Harry Kane has scored 99 Premier League home goals for Tottenham, and could be the first player to reach a century of goals in both home and away games in the competition. He’s scored five league goals against Manchester United, but his only one at home came in the final game at White Hart Lane in May 2017.
● Having scored 10 goals in his first 10 Premier League appearances following the World Cup break, Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford has now scored just once in his last five. Just three of his 15 league goals overall this term have come away from home.
● Son Heung-min has scored in each of his last three Premier League home games (3 goals in total), having netted in just two of his first 11 games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this term (4 goals).