BUNDESLIGA FRIDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews AUGSBURG v KOLN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

AUGSBURG V KOLN

7.30pm We only have one fixture in Europe on Friday night but it’s a massive game at the bottom of the Bundesliga. Augsburg won’t like me saying that however as they sit happily in 12th without much relegation worries. However, Koln recorded a massive 2-1 win against RB Leipzig on Tuesday night and that has really opened up the relegation battle. That win came from nowhere against an in-form Leipzig side, and although Koln didn’t deserve to win looking at the xG figures – it does make things more interesting at the bottom of the table. As a side note too, it did effectively put Leipzig’s title challenge to bed too.

It’s an interesting situation at the bottom of the Bundesliga at the moment as a draw here would see Koln go above Hertha Berlin and see Hertha Berlin into the relegation zone. However, Hertha Berlin would then have three games in hand on Koln. Hertha Berlin became the first side to be ordered into quarantine with Covid19 cases, and they won’t play at the weekend either. At the moment, Koln are level on points with Hertha Berlin, but they have played two games more. A win here would see a good bit of pressure put on Hertha, and I’m sure Koln will know that.

It’s not surprising to see an open market on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and you have to expect a close game here. Koln are favourites, and I’m not sure I agree with that – perhaps there is an element of “need to win” priced in. Don’t get me wrong, both sides are very limited and I’m not a fan of either, but I wouldn’t have Koln 2.62 and Augsburg 2.94. I would have the sides closer together.

This is a game for low stakes given it’s likely to be a very low quality affair, but I like the Koln lay here at the odds. I feel that offers the most value, as I expect Augsburg to make things tough for Koln. If you look at Koln’s xG figures you can see why they are in the relegation zone – they give away too many chances. Augsburg might be a limited side, but Koln will still give them a host of chances. Augsburg have been very average this season, but their last four games have been good from an xG point of view, despite only winning once and I’m happy with the Koln lay at the odds.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Koln to beat Augsburg at 2.62 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAugKln