FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews AUGSBURG v RB LEIPZIG and GIRONA v GETAFE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUGSBURG V RB LEIPZIG
7.30pm It’s been a blockbuster week from Europe, and while we don’t quite have the same quality on offer for Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, we do have two interesting markets from the Bundesliga and La Liga! I don’t think we’re going to get more drama than we had between Manchester City and Real Madrid in the Champions League, but could see plenty of goals as we start the evening with Augsburg hosting RB Leipzig. A quick look at the Bundesliga table would make you think this will likely be a smooth win for RB Leipzig, but their under-lining numbers have had a lot of red flags this season. It’s not a surprise to see RB Leipzig odds against. They are trading 2.2 with Augsburg 3.55 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. RB Leipzig are sitting in the top four coming into the weekend, but they have been massively over-performing this season. As I said above, their under-lining numbers are quite poor – they have the joint-third worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga this season! Their average xG created is only 1.26 this season, but their actual goals scored average is much higher at 1.71 – hence why they sit in fourth place.
They’ve been over-performing at the back too; their average xG conceded is 1.53 which is a very poor defensive figure; so far this season sides haven’t been taking all their chances against Leipzig though! What makes this game interesting is Augsburg have a very similar performance level to Leipzig – their average xG created is actually the exact same as Leipzig at 1.26! Augsburg have a better defensive figure compared to Leipzig – why Augsburg are further down the table is they haven’t been taking their limited chances, and they’ve been sloppy at the back too. Obviously both sides are playing quite limited football this season – you have to give Leipzig credit for getting as many results as they have managed this season. I’m going to keep stakes small because of that, but in my opinion the 2.2 is far too short here given the sides have the same attacking figure this season. I just expect a closer game than the odds suggest, the Leipzig lay looks the value call.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) RB Leipzig to beat Augsburg at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AugLei
GIRONA V GETAFE
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football as Girona host Getafe. This is another interesting market – Girona are rightfully favourites with home advantage but Getafe have been on a good run recently. Getafe are unbeaten in their last five La Liga games, and they’ve won three of those. They have been keeping games exceptionally tight this season – only Real Valladolid have scored less goals this season and only Atletico Madrid have conceded less. Safe to say there hasn’t been much action in Getafe games, and Girona will have to work very hard to win here. Girona come into the game as 2.04 favourites with Getafe 4.6 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Girona were always going to go backwards this season after such a good season last time – they were always highly unlikely to retain their top four spot. However, their performance levels have been quite poor this season. Their average xG created is only 1.21 – Getafe aren’t a million miles away from the relegation zone, but they have a similar attacking figure at 1.2. Girona are marginally scoring more than they are creating, quite for Getafe they are scoring less.
Getafe have been better at the back – their average xG conceded is only 1.13 whereas for Girona their defensive figure is 1.29. Only Athletic Bilbao, Barcelona and Real Madrid have conceded less chances at the back this season which is an impressive stat from a Getafe point of view! I have to say looking at how the sides have been playing, the 2.04 feels a little short on Girona. With that being said, it’s quite obvious that they are a much better side with home advantage compared to when they are away. For that reason, I’m going to keep stakes low here but I still feel Girona are worth laying at 2.04 – Getafe have been very tough to beat this season and they’ve conceded very few goals too. I expect them to make this a difficult night for Girona, and the game should be closer than odds of 2.04 suggest. I’m happy with a small Girona lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Girona to beat Getafe at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirGet
