FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews HOFFENHEIM v DORTMUND and BARCELONA v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HOFFENHEIM V DORTMUND
7.30pm It’s been a hectic week in Europe, and the action keeps coming on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We kick off the weekend round of fixtures on Friday night with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. It was a very busy week in Serie A and La Liga, while in Germany they played the remaining fixtures left in the German Cup. We start Friday night in the Bundesliga as Hoffenheim host Dortmund, who both had a week of rest after already progressing in the German Cup. This should be a cracking game – Hoffenheim actually have one more point than Dortmund at the moment and they will be full of confidence after a 2-0 win away to Union Berlin last weekend. Not many sides manage to beat Union Berlin in their own back yard, but it’s also fair to say Union haven’t had a fantastic start to the season – it’s very unlikely they’ll hold onto their top four spot. Dortmund will be disappointed with their start to the season; they’ve been held to two draws in their five games, and they came against Bochum and Heidenheim – two sides that will be in the relegation battle this season and games Dortmund should be winning to be honest.
Dortmund come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. At the time of writing, Dortmund are 2.22, Hoffenheim 3.1 and the draw is 4.3. Both sides enjoy playing a very open game, so we should have a very entertaining end-to-end game here. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.45. I feel this game screams goals though, and Over 3.5 goals is worth backing at 2.06. You only have to look at the under-lining numbers here to see how many chances we’re going to have in this game. Hoffenheim might have started the season with good results, but they are conceding an average xG of 1.98 which is exceptionally high. That’s the second highest figure conceded in the Bundesliga this season, but they are creating a decent average going forward too. It’s not as big as Dortmund at 1.75 which is the fifth best record going forward this season. They are conceding chances and sloppy goals too though, and Over 3.5 goals looks a nice option to start the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 3.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HofDor
BARCELONA V SEVILLA
8pm We move to La Liga next to finish Friday night as Barcelona host Sevilla. We had a busy midweek round of fixtures in La Liga, and Barcelona dropped points with a 2-2 draw at Mallorca. That was a surprise given how well they had been playing heading into that game, and they can just got back to the top of the table after Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid last weekend in the Madrid Derby. You couldn’t say that they fully deserved to win looking at the game and the xG figures, even though they did finish with a figure around 0.3 higher than the conceded. It’s not like they bossed the game. Sevilla were also in action on Tuesday night, they ran out easy 5-1 winners against Almeria. After a terrible start to the season when Sevilla fans must have been thinking “oh no, not again” as they sat in the bottom three, Sevilla have actually been playing pretty well. Their average xG created is a high 1.81 which is only behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. Getting into the top four again might be tough, but if they keep playing the way they have then surely they’ll be in the mix for those European spots again. This used to be a blockbuster top four clash in fairness, but it’s a sign of the times to see Barcelona trading as short as 1.38. Sevilla just haven’t been at that top level recently, even while not competing for the title they could always hold their own in 90 minutes.
Barcelona have won five of the last six meetings between the sides, and there was a huge gulf between the sides last season with two 3-0 wins for Barcelona. We tend to see plenty of action when these two meet – 70% of their meetings have had Over 2.5 goals which is quite a high stat. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.51 and I’m sure that will be a popular bet – I actually thought it would be trading shorter. I do feel that the 1.38 on Barcelona is a little short; Sevilla are clearly playing some decent football at the start of the season looking at their under-lining numbers and I couldn’t put anyone off a small Barca lay. The best that stands out here however is Both Teams To Score at 1.83. As highlighted above, Sevilla have a very good average xG created this season and they can find the net at some stage here in what should be an open game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-2 win either way to be honest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarSel
