FANTASTIC MOON WILL RUN IN PARIS: With the news of drying conditions for a sunshine Arc de Triomphe on Sunday, German Derby winner Fantastic Moon will be re-entered, says trainer Sarah Steinberg. Ballydoyle’s Continuous has already been put on the supplementary list but Emily Dickinson is likely to be switched to the Cadran.
RELY ON BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman bets at Goodwood and Redcar today, relying on BETDAQ value in some tough races. There is a storm warning for Redcar. Goodwood is already soft.
KEY FORM FOR THE ARC TOP TEN
SIX of the last nine winners of Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe had previously run in the race or had form relating to a previous winner. That’s one of the keys (E in the list) to finding this year’s best bet.
Daqman’s short-list is made up of 10 Group-1 winners, which can be marked up now for other key trends. The draw and odds stats await the allocation of stalls and the betting on the day.
A: CLASS: 19 of the last 20 winners previously won a Group 1
B: EIGHT of the last 11 have been aged 4 or 5.
C: TEN of the last 16 have been trained outside France.
D: TEN of the last 16 have been fillies or mares.
E: SIX of the last 9 had Arc form or related form
F: TRAINER or JOCKEY with more than 33% top three finishes
+ DRAW (last eight years at Longchamp): 15, 3, 14, 2, 3, 4, 12, 6
+ ODDS: 22 of the last 30 winners were single-unit odds SP
ABCE SISFAHAN German Derby winner of 2021 (pictured below), then third to 2022 Arc winner in the Preis Von Europa in Hamburg. Narrow defeat by Simca Mille in the Grosser Preis von Berlin at the Hoppegarten this summer.
ABCE WESTOVER Irish Derby winner of 2022 and sixth in the Arc; won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July; in the frame 10 times from 12 starts.
ABC BAY BRIDGE Second-season five wins in a row and took the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October. Showed stamina for 1m 4f the last day.
ABDF PLACE DU CARROUSEL Won her first Group 1 in the Opera at last year’s Arc meeting (beat Nashwa). Back–to-back strikes since, including shock defeat of odds-on Foy-trial favourite, Iresine, in late September.
ABE ONESTO Beat Simca Mille a neck in the Grand Prix de Paris last July and showed strong autumn promise, second to Luxembourg in the Irish Champion Stakes (2022). Failed to reach the frame in four Group-1 tries this term.
AB SIMCA MILLE Won the Prix Niel (2022) as a three-year-old but form really solid this year, taking the Prix d’Harcourt at Longchamp and the Grand Prix de Chantilly; just pipped Sisfahan in the Grosser Preis von Berlin at the Hoppegarten.
Head in front of Bay Bridge when they were second and third in the Ganay at Longchamp; Place Du Carrousel 5th (very soft ground).
AC FANTASTIC MOON German Derby victory (going good) among three wins out of the last four runs, his only blip on soft ground. Beat Feed The Flame (see below) ‘readily’ in the Prix Niel trial (Longchamp, good).
ACE HUKUM Power-charged, game individual bettered his five Group/Grade wins with a stunning hat-trick, slamming subsequent King George winner Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup (2022), beating Derby winner Desert Crown (Brigadier Gerard Stakes in May) and stopping Westover by a head in the King George in July.
AF FEED THE FLAME Only fourth behind Ace Impact in the French Derby but eased past Irish Derby runner-up Adelaide River in Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp when stepped up to 1m 4f (Group 1).
A ACE IMPACT Truly an ace, making a huge impact with five out of five at around 1m 2f, including the French Derby in June, pulverising hat-trick colt Big Rock with the French Guineas winner in third.
Update on Sunday. Assumption at this stage is that Christophe Soumillon rides Feed The Flame. Frankie Dettori (also key F) is on Free Wind, who has scored in three Group-2 events but none at Group-1 level.
LATTAM IN REVENGE ON KEEPER
⭕ 2.30 Goodwood As so many Johnson runners of old used to do, The Gatekeeper has loved his time at Goodwood: runner-up of 20 in the Golden Mile in August.
He made up for that defeat in the Stewards’ Room when, done a nose, he was awarded a small-field mile, also on the soft, back there about a month ago.
Lattam did well on soft ground in the Spring, taking the Irish Lincolnshire for William Haggas and second, attempting to follow up in the Newbury Spring Cup.
He was favourite for the Golden Mile but we will know only today how he might have done relative to The Gatekeeper, as he dwelt at the start, then was hampered a furlong or so out. Goes well fresh.
Rhoscolyn has run his best races here over 7f and is another who was denied a clear run in the Golden Mile.
He would have a big chance if he could reproduce his 7f (heavy) success at Goodwood in August when he gave a couple of pounds yet had the beating by a length of the weekend’s Silver Cup winner, Wobwobwob.
Betdaq Betting Exchange. 3.1 Lattam, 4.4 Rhoscolyn, 6.3 The Gatekeeper
BLEUS BIG WEIGHT ADVANTAGE
⭕ 4.15 Goodwood (2YO fillies’ series final) There hasn’t been any money for Les Bleus since she won a low-level novice at Newmarket on the July Course.
But she’s not run badly – third or fourth – in the Sweet Solera, Calvados and May Hill Stakes, the last two in deep ground.
Today is a big drop in class but, because they have all scored the last day, the top three are giving her weight: so that, in theory, she has 12lb to spare over little Adaay In Devon, 11lb on Chic Columbine, and 15lb on the more remote Lexington Belle.
That’s massive in the mud but Chic Columbine, who completed a hat-trick at the Doncaster St Leger meeting, has a stamina-packed pedigree yet was dropping to 6.5f on Town Moor and slammed two previous winners into the places.
This is clearly a race well worth the £50,000 first prize. It’s a good move by connections of Les Bleus, though anybody’s guess how much Chic Columbine will improve again, given this more severe test.
BETDAQ value 3.55 Chic Columbine, 4.5 Les Bleus
LOTUS LOOKS SET FOR REPEAT
⭕ 5.02 Redcar LAYS LOGIC After scoring two out of three on AW as a two-year-old in 2018, Stone Of Destiny has been determined not to win again. And he’s almost made it!
He’s lost 13 straight AW races and his turf score is 2-47 (that’s a grand total of 2-60, according to my maths).
Stone Of Destiny, who was finally given up by Andrew Balding, ran second the last day at Doncaster for Michael Appleby, but in the past that’s not been a reliable indicator of his mood next time out.
His two turf wins were on good ground but today has a weather warning for thundery showers from 2 o’clock onwards.
FORM: The four years younger Lotus Rose won this race last year (one of two CD strikes) on similar firmish ground, as it stands this morning, but is a Thirsk winner on soft.
Albegone has won two of his last three races on the soft, with Tim Easterby back to form (12 hits in the last fortnight). You need to wait and check the ground before the race.
Three-year-olds have taken this race four years in the last five, and Castan’s stable is in fine form, while Zuffalo is also a CD winner here at Redcar. Doctor Mozart has won only on man-made surfaces.
BETDAQ value: 5.1 Albegone, 8.6 Lotus Rose, 13.5 Castan
2.30 Goodwood (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win LATTAM
4.15 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 6pts win LES BLEUS
Bet 2pts win (saver) CHIC COLUMBINE
5.02 Redcar (win 20,win 12)
BET 2.5pts win LOTUS ROSE
BET 1pt win and place CASTAN
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