FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s two games between BAYER LEVERKUSEN v MAINZ and REAL SOCIEDAD v VILLARREAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V MAINZ
7.30pm It’s been another hectic week in European football with the Champions League and Europe League! We return to domestic action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with our usual Friday night football slow of one Bundesliga game and one La Liga game. We kick off the night in the Bundesliga with league leaders Bayer Leverkusen hosting Mainz. It’s been a dream season for Bayer Leverkusen so far, and their dreams of winning the Bundesliga title and ending the long reign of Bayern Munich have become a very big reality over the last week or so. First, Leverkusen hammered Bayern 3-0 to go five points clear and then Bayern lost away to Bochum last weekend meaning Leverkusen now have an eight point advantage. They haven’t lost a Bundesliga game yet this season; surely the title is in the bag now? Bayern Munich are talking about who is possibly replacing Thomas Tuchel for next season rather than the title race for this season! The only bad thing from a Bayer Leverkusen point of view is that with Liverpool and Bayern Munich (likely) looking for a new manager it’s hard to see Xabi Alonso not leaving Leverkusen, which is a shame. For so long the rest of the Bundesliga have basically been feeder clubs for Bayern Munich.
Leverkusen will be fully expected to win here, and they could be even further ahead by the end of the weekend as Bayern Munich have to play RB Leipzig. Mainz have been struggling to get results this season, but they did win last weekend. They’re still in the relegation zone however, and they are seven points off Gladbach sitting in 15th. The best hope for Mainz seems to be the relegation playoff spot, and then take their chances there – they are only one point behind Koln there. Leverkusen come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.24 with Mainz 16.0 and the draw is 7.2 at the time of writing. Mainz haven’t been one of the worst sides in the Bundesliga this season but they find themselves in the relegation zone because they aren’t taking their chances. Their average xG created is 1.37 which is mid-table standard, but they are converting only half of those chances. They haven’t conceded many goals, and I feel that they can keep the score line respectable here. Under 3.5 goals is trading 1.58 and that looks nice value considering Mainz don’t score many but they have been reasonably solid at the back too.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LevMai
REAL SOCIEDAD V VILLARREAL
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Real Sociedad host Villarreal. It’s fair to say that these two sides will be disappointed with their season so far; Real Sociedad were always going to find it tough to hold onto their top four position but they have dropped down to sixth and there’s quite a gap to the top five now. They did well in the Champions League Group stage, but they’re likely heading out now that they’re 2-0 down to PSG after the first leg. Villarreal have been all over the place since Unai Emery left to be honest – they have gone to a banker for a European spot to being closer to a relegation fight. They are clearly miles too good for a relegation fight, but they’ve been hanging around the mid-to-low end of the table. Their average xG conceded is 1.65 this season which is the worst defensive figure in La Liga. Going forward they’ve been poor too; their average xG created is only 1.18. It will be a while before we see them in Europe again in my opinion, and it’s easy to see why Real Sociedad are the odds on favourites here. The home win is trading 1.8 with Villarreal 5.2 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing.
Real Sociedad have been playing better football than Villarreal this season; there’s no doubt about that. However, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.8 here for a number of reasons. The home and away tables are quite interesting here; at home Real Sociedad have been mid-table but away from home they sit in the top four – only Real Madrid, Girona and Barcelona have more points away from home. Sociedad have been excellent at the back compared to Villarreal though, and their average xG conceded of 1.14 is the second best defensive figure in La Liga. Only Real Madrid have conceded fewer chances. The Villarreal defensive figure definitely puts a negative on the Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.82 – only two ticks away from the price of the Real Sociedad win. Away from home Villarreal’s average xG created is only 1.01, and coupled with how good Sociedad have been at the back I feel they can keep a clean sheet here. Both Teams Not To Score looks a nice investment at 1.91.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocVll
