BUNDESLIGA AND LA LIGA FRIDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the La Liga and Bundesliga games on Friday with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
STUTTGART V KOLN
7.30pm We have two very interesting fixtures in Europe on Friday night, and we start with Stuttgart hosting Koln in the Bundesliga. Koln have had a poor start to the Bundesliga, and sit in 16th position heading into this fixture. They have only managed one draw from four games, while Stuttgart are flying sitting up in fifth position.
I must say, Stuttgart have impressed me at the start of the season. They were unlucky to lose their opening fixture 3-2 against Freiburg in a game packed with chances; a draw would have been a fair result. They have created a lot in their four games, with xG’s of 2.4, 2.68, 0.89 and 1.44. That 0.89 came against Bayer Leverkusen, in a reasonably fair 1-1 draw.
Koln have created chances too, but apart from their 1-0 loss at Arminia Bielefeld their games have been more in line with xG. They were unlucky to lose against Hoffenheim because a draw would have been a fair result, but over all they have lacked the creativity that Stuttgart have at the start of the season.
Koln had an unlucky season last time, with xG saying they should have finished higher in the table. However, Stuttgart are a nice price to win tonight at 2.1. It seems like the perfect time to back Stuttgart, as I’m sure Koln will improve as the season goes on, but for today it’s Stuttgart who are firing and can take the three points.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Stuttgart to beat Koln at 2.1 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQStrKol
ELCHE V VALENCIA
8pm We have another interesting game as we move to La Liga in a busy night on on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Valencia made some massive changes at the club during the summer. Management were unhappy with where the club was heading in general and while these decisions are never easy, it looks like it’s going to be a very difficult season.
What do you do in these situations, when you don’t have millions and millions to spend? Do you pull the plug knowing that things will get worse before they get better, or just continue finishing in mid-to-low table with poor performances? It’s quite easy for us to judge them, but it’s a very difficult situation.
The early signs are that it hasn’t worked, and they’ll probably finish in the lower half again. Elche actually have the same amount of points, but they have played two games less. Elche have been exceptionally lucky though, as they “lost” the two games they won on xG, and didn’t deserve the 0-0 draw against Huesca. They have created xG’s of 1.12, 0.39, 0.19 and 0.97.
I think this will be a low quality affair, and while I would lean towards Valencia based on how poor Elche have performed, I think the draw is good value here at 3.25. Elche results just haven’t reflected how they have actually played, but Valencia are struggling too.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.25 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQEleVal
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