FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between DORTMUND v RB LEIPZIG and NAPOLI v LAZIO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V RB LEIPZIG
7.30pm What a Friday night we have on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have two fantastic fixtures from the Bundesliga and Serie A – this is probably the best Friday night football line-up of the season so far in my opinion! We start the action in the Bundesliga as Dortmund host RB Leipzig. Bayern Munich recorded a big win last weekend against Union Berlin, but Dortmund also won and now they sit together at the top of the table on the same amount of points, three ahead of Union Berlin and four ahead of RB Leipzig. I don’t see a shock coming in the title race – Bayern Munich will end up winning of course – but it’s nice to be this deep into the season and we do have a reasonably close title race! If Bayern slipped up again things might even get interesting! Dortmund have put together seven wins in a row – they have actually won every Bundesliga game since the World Cup and winter break. They started grinding out results, but clearly the confidence of winning has come into the squad and now they are playing great football too. Their last four xG figures in the Bundesliga have been 2.34, 2.19, 2.14 and 2.87. They are in a nice position in the Champions League too, although they only take a 1-0 lead into the second leg away from home. RB Leipzig have been in good form since the World Cup too – they will be hoping to jump over Union Berlin and into the top three soon. They might even get into the title race too!
This should be a top class fixture. Dortmund come into the game as the favourites with home advantage – they are trading 2.34 at the time of writing with RB Leipzig 3.1 and the draw is 3.85. Home advantage could be a huge factor here because RB Leipzig haven’t been as comfortable away from home this season compared to at home. Dortmund have been excellent at home too – they have 25 points from their ten home games. Both sides like to play an attacking brand of football, and we could have a very entertaining affair here if we see an early goal. Both sides have an excellent average xG of 1.9 going forward – they actually have very similar stats at the back too – Dortmund’s average conceded is 1.2 while Leipzig’s is 1.1. There really won’t be much in this one, and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. This game screams goals in my opinion, and Over 2.5 goals looks too big to ignore at 1.67. Dortmund’s games have been very open recently – I know they only won 1-0 at the weekend, but their xG was 2.87 while RB Leipzig do concede a few sloppy goals. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get goals here!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorRbl
NAPOLI V LAZIO
7.45pm We move to Serie A to finish the evening with another cracker as Napoli host Lazio. Napoli are running away with the title in Italy this season – their fans are living the dream this season after waiting so long for a title. As I said a few weeks ago, some of their fans would have never seen them lift a title before. After Inter Milan lost again last weekend, Napoli now have an 18 point lead. There’s no catching them now, and they can focus on the Champions League at this stage. A few more wins and the title race will be officially over – it’s actually been a remarkable season. They’ve only lost once, which was their first game back after the World Cup against Inter Milan away from home. Since then they’ve put eight wins together in Serie A, and they are in a lovely position heading into their second leg in the Champions League too. Lazio have it all to do here looking at Napoli’s home form – they have recorded 31 points from their 11 home games, not many dropped points there! With Roma losing against Cremonese, Lazio moved up into fourth and they have a fantastic chance of Champions League football next season. Atalanta also lost at the weekend, now it looks like the race for fourth will be between Lazio and Roma – both clubs have hugely benefitted from Juventus getting docked 15 points obviously, but it’s going to be a dramatic finish to the season for both clubs with the stakes very high.
Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are currently trading 1.68 and to be honest it’s hard to be against them here. Their home form has been incredible, and when you look at the under-lining numbers it’s clear to see Lazio have been over-performing this season. They deserve huge credit for grinding out results, but they have been over-performing up front and at the back. They have created an average xG of 1.4, but their actual goals scored is 1.7. They have conceded an average xG of 1.2, but their actual goals conceded is 0.8. Not huge differences, but enough to suggest that they are “lucky” to be sitting in fourth ahead of Roma, Jose Mourinho’s team have much better stats for example. You can’t really fault Napoli this season – they seem to do everything well and while Lazio are a solid side, it’s clear that they aren’t at the same level as the home side. The 1.68 is big enough to back in my opinion as I thought Napoli would be sitting closer to 1.6, and they can make it nine wins in a row in Serie A!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Napoli to beat Lazio at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapLaz
