FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between MAINZ v KOLN (Bundesliga) and JUVENTUS v EMPOLI (Serie A) both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V KOLN
7.30pm It’s been a hectic week around Europe with plenty of action, and we kick off the weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Friday night football from the Bundesliga and Serie A! We start the evening in the Bundesliga as Mainz host Koln. This should be a good game – there;s only one point between the sides at the moment, and things are looking very tight between 6th and 11th at the moment – only one point between all those sides! Both sides will be reasonably happy with their start to the season – Koln will feel that they are in the mix for a European spot again but the Europa Conference League is their most likely target again. Mainz finished just behind Koln in the table last season, and although there was six points between them surely the aim for Mainz this season is to break into that Europa Conference League spot. Perhaps this isn’t the most glamorous Bundesliga tie, but it’s actually a massive game for both sides – it will be very competitive too. I was slightly surprised to see Mainz trading as short as 2.24 when I clicked into the market. I felt we’d see a pretty open market; Mainz should be the favourites given they have home advantage, but I wouldn’t have them this short.
I can understand the market a little when you look at the Home & Away tables from last season. Mainz had an incredibly up-and-down season because they finished fourth in the home form table and then in the relegation zone in the away form table. Only Greuther Furth finished below them in that table and they just didn’t look Bundesliga standard at all last season. Mainz were able to hold Union Berlin to a 0-0 draw here earlier in the season but since then they have been that good. They were beaten by Bayer Leverkusen and then drew with Hertha Berlin and RB Leipzig recently. They might have been strong at home last season, but they have yet to put in a real solid performance at home. Koln are a very entertaining side who like to play an open game – their recent games have been jam packed with action and to be honest you see both teams score in a lot of Mainz games too. I would be very happy to lay Mainz at the odds here because I expect a closer game than 2.24 suggests; however Over 2.5 goals looks a standout bet here at 1.79. Both these sides like to attack and I can see a very end-to-end game here. It’s not quite a Max Bet but it’s a very confident one.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiKol
JUVENTUS V EMPOLI
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish the evening as Juventus host Empoli. Both these sides are sitting in mid-table to start the weekend, but only one of them will be happy with that. Juventus will be very disappointed with their start to the season, and it won’t be long until they hit the panic button. They start the weekend sitting in 8th, and although they are just behind Inter Milan they are already ten points behind league leaders Napoli. The thing about the others dropping points is that is going to make life very difficult for Juventus to break back into the top four like they did last season. Atalanta and Roma look much stronger this season – even Lazio could finish ahead of Juventus based on current form. The main problem for Juventus has been scoring goals – they are only creating an average xG of 1.3 in Serie A this season. In every big league around Europe, the top sides are usually creating 2.0+ and conceding just under 1. Juventus are creating 1.3 and conceding 1.2 so you can see where the problems are. They have been that unlucky looking at all their results either, but they have thrown in some shocking performances. They did play well last weekend though in a 2-0 win away to Torino, and Torino have the same amount of points as Empoli. It’s fair to say that Juventus will be fully expected to win this game, but I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.44.
It’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter than 1.44 here based on their performances. From that point of view I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. Empoli have got some results away from home this season, but their performances haven’t been great. Since the start of the season their xG figures away from home read; 0.79, 0.33, 0.84, 1.66 and 0.23. Those figures just aren’t good enough if you want to get a result against a side like Juventus, even allowing for the fact that Juventus haven’t been playing that well this season. With Juventus struggling so much to create chances this season and Empoli not creating much away from home, Under 2.5 goals looks cracking value here at 2.1. I can see Empoli putting XI men behind the ball and trying to really frustrate Juventus. With their lack of creativity this season, we could actually see a dull game here. We’ll likely see Juventus grind out a 1-0 win or something, but I’m happy with Under 2.5 goals at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvEmp