FRIDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews EMPOLI v LAZIO and SALERNITANA v AC MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EMPOLI V LAZIO
5.30pm It’s the final Matchday before Christmas, and Friday night football is all about Serie A this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. The Bundesliga have gone on their winter break after their mid-week fixture list, and we only have one La Liga fixture this weekend too; the only catch-up fixture between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla. We do have some cracking action to enjoy from Serie A though, and we kick off Friday night with Empoli hosting Lazio. Both sides are having very disappointing seasons thus far, and they both need a morale boosting win heading into Christmas! Empoli start this weekend sitting in the relegation zone – never a good place to be over Christmas, but they are only within one point of Cagliari and Udinese. After managing to finish second last season, Lazio are miles off the top four this season. They aren’t even in the top half of the table as they sit in eleventh – already seven points off the top four. As many xG fans will know though, Lazio were exceptionally lucky to finish in the top four last season based on their performance level.
You have to give Lazio credit for how many results they were able to grind out last season, but that hasn’t been the case this season. Their average xG created is just 1.12, and they aren’t even taking those chances. That attacking figure puts them in the bottom six, but they do face a side with a worse attacking figure here; Empoli’s average xG created is just 0.94. Lazio come into the game as the favourites, but as you would expect they aren’t trading odds on. Lazio are 2.08 with Empoli 4.2 and the draw is 3.5. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Lazio at 2.08 here given they have struggled so much in front of goal – they are conceding more than they are creating too. It’s very hard to have any confidence in Empoli though; their average xG conceded of 1.70 is the worst defensive figure in Serie A. At home they have been a little more solid, but hardly impressive. I think this game screams Under 2.5 goals; two poor attacking sides, and although Empoli are poor at the back they do have home advantage here. I don’t see many goals, or chances in this one.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EmpLaz
SALERNITANA V AC MILAN
7.45pm Next we have the only odds on favourite in Serie A on Friday as AC Milan travel to take on Salernitana. This should be an interesting market, and I’m sure we’ll have some big opinion either side of the book here. AC Milan come in as the red-hot favourites, they are trading 1.47 with Salernitana 7.6 and the draw is 4.9. On paper, this should be a straightforward win for AC Milan but there have been some major red flags in their performance figures this season. They are creating exactly what they are conceding – their average xG created and conceded is 1.36. That’s basically mid-table form, but they start the weekend sitting in third spot. They are nine points off Inter Milan, so they aren’t really in the title race but they are massively over-performing to be sitting in third. Their actual goals scored average is 1.81 which is the second best record in Serie A; they are also over-performing at the back – eventually they will stop scoring from awkward angles and sides will start taking their chances against them – that’s just probability. For the moment though with everyone else dropping points, they need to build a lead in the top four race because you could easily see the dropping out if they don’t improve their performance levels.
Once again, much like the game above – we have a favourite away from home who aren’t playing great but they are playing a side with less quality than them. Although the 1.47 on AC Milan feels short given their xG figures, Salernitana are worse! Salernitana are averaging an xG created of just 0.90 – they are one of only three sides with an average under 1.0. They are also in the bottom three when it comes to defending too, and they are nailed to the bottom of the table at the moment. There just isn’t anything positive to say about Salernitana! I don’t have much confidence on AC Milan, but they should win here, there’s just too much of a gulf in class between the sides. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading odds on, and I don’t agree with that. Salernitana are very poor going forward, and although AC Milan have been scoring goals they are performing way above their chances created. I like a value bet on Under 2.5 goals at 2.24. I can see AC Milan having to grind their way to a win here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SalAcm
