FRIDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v MONZA and GENOA v INTER MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V MONZA
5.30pm Serie A returns from their Christmas break on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two very interesting markets on Friday. Napoli and Inter Milan are both in action, and we have two very similar priced favourites too. Napoli and Inter Milan are the best two performing sides in Serie A this season, however there’s a whopping 17 points between them in the table. We start the evening with Napoli hosting Monza, and the home side come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.68 at the time of writing with Monza 6.0 and the draw is 4.1. Napoli have an average xG created of 1.86 this season which is the highest attacking figure in Serie A but they might not even make the top four. They have dropped so many points this season, and just haven’t been getting over the line. On the face of things, it’s a big drop off after lifting the title last season but their under-lining numbers are clearly still very good. It is hard to trust them though; you can play all the good football you want but at the end of the day you have to win games. At the moment, they aren’t taking their chances and they are conceding more goals than they should.
The confusing thing with Napoli is that there isn’t a huge amount in the difference. For example, their average xG created is 1.86 but their actual goals scored average is 1.65. Their average xG conceded is 1.16 but their actual goals conceded is 1.24. Not huge differences, but it’s costs them 17 points on Inter! Although it’s hard to fully trust Napoli to get the job done, they face a Monza side here who have been really struggling this season. They are scoring less than a goal a game on average, and conceding more chances than that. In fairness to Monza, they are creating more than they are scoring – and they have been keeping games as tight as possible. Under 2.5 goals is an appealing bet here at 2.06 – I was surprised to see it trading odds against when I clicked into the market to be honest. Monza have had very few goals in their games this season, and Napoli have been pretty solid at the back despite their lack of results. I’d have the Unders as the favourite here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapMon
GENOA V INTER MILAN
7.45pm Next we have Genoa hosting Inter Milan, and we have a very similar market to the above game, just this time the away side is the favourite. Inter Milan went into the short Christmas break with a four point advantage sitting at the top of the table. They have an eleven point advantage over AC Milan sitting in third, so it’s only really Inter Milan and Juventus in the title race this season. Juventus have been grinding out a lot of results, but they haven’t been close to the level of Inter Milan. At this stage, I would suggest Inter Milan are almost locked in for the title in my opinion! This is another game that they should win – Genoa have been very poor going forward this season. They have an average xG created of just 0.90 which is the worst attacking figure in Serie A this season – obviously they are conceding more chances than they are creating with that figure! In fairness to Genoa, they actually haven’t been bad at the back and Inter will have to work hard for the win. Genoa have had Under 2.5 goals collect in their last five home Serie A games, and the figures back that up too. At home, their average xG created is only 0.90 and their average conceded is also low at 1.13.
I would expect Genoa to set up quite negatively here and play for a draw; it will be up to Inter to make the running here. The under-lining numbers are night-and-day apart though; Inter have been superb going forward. Their average xG created is 1.79 which drops away from home, but it’s still high. At the back, they have been the best side in Serie A this season – their average xG conceded is only 1.05 and they have been just as solid at the back away from home because it’s only 1.09 away. We have the best defence against the worst attack here, and there are a couple of options. My three options would be the Inter win at 1.65, Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 or Both Teams Not To Score at 1.77. I feel all three are good options to be honest. We landed a nice bet on Inter to keep a clean sheet against Lecce prior to Christmas, and they can do the same here on the way to winning.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GenInt
