THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews BRIGHTON v TOTTENHAM and ARSENAL v WEST HAM both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRIGHTON V TOTTENHAM
7.30pm The Premier League action continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two fixtures on Thursday night. We have two cracking games, and two interesting markets too. We start the evening with Brighton hosting Spurs, and we have an exceptionally open market here! There’s only two ticks between the sides with Spurs at the marginal favourites at the time of writing. Spurs are trading 2.64 with Brighton 2.66 and the draw is 4.0. You can definitely poke holes in both of these sides – Brighton have been really struggling to get over the line lately. They’ve only managed two wins in 12 Premier League games and although they have had some difficult fixtures they have failed to beat the likes of Fulham, Everton, Sheffield United, Burnley and Crystal Palace on that run. For the volume of chances they create, they should be doing better. The problem for Brighton is they cannot buy a clean sheet – they actually haven’t managed to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season which is obviously making life very difficult. Their average xG created is impressive at 1.75 but if they don’t take those chances and they aren’t keep a clean sheet they run into obvious problems. Away from home they are conceding more than they are creating too.
Spurs fans have also been on a rollercoaster ride this season. They started the season fire, some said they were even in the title race before they went five games with a win including four losses, then they have steadied the ship with three wins leading into Christmas. They are playing solid football under Ange Postecoglou, but they are never too far away from doing something “Spursy” as they say! They are conceding plenty of chances – more than Brighton on average – but you have to give them credit that they are creating a lot. Their average xG created is the third best in the Premier League only behind Liverpool and Manchester City. It’s no surprise that we have an open market here with Brighton having home advantage, however I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.5 with Both Teams To Score at 1.48 – I like both bets, but I marginally prefer Both Teams To Score given the record of Brighton this season. I can see a very end-to-end and open game here, and BTTS is worth a very confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Both Teams To Score at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriTtm
ARSENAL V WEST HAM
8.15pm We finish Thursday night with a London Derby as Arsenal host West Ham. Arsenal fans and players enjoyed their Christmas dinner sitting top of the Premier League table – they aren’t as far clear as last season but they are bang in the title race again. It will be fascinating to see how they handle the run-in pressure after what happened last season; did they learn from it? They come into this game as the red-hot favourites; the home win is trading as short as 1.34 at the time of writing with West Ham 10.0 and the draw is 6.2 as Declan Rice faces his former club. We have one of the best defensive sides against one of the weakest here. Arsenal are conceding an average xG of just 0.91 which is the best defensive figure in the Premier League, while West Ham’s average xG conceded is 1.68 which is the third worst figure at the back. The Hammers went into Christmas siting in sixth position which is incredible looking at their stats. They have been massively over-performing up front – their average xG created is just 1.17 which is in the bottom seven going forward. However, their actual goals scored average works out at 1.72 which is a massive difference. Eventually West Ham will stop scoring from awkward angles, that’s just possibility, and then they will have massive issues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slip down the table as the season goes on.
It’s no surprise that Arsenal are the red-hot favourites here; although West Ham have been getting the results, the market knows their performance level has been poor. Although I’m not going to tip Arsenal at 1.34 – no prizes for that – I would recommend them for any Acca this week. West Ham are one of the biggest over-performing sides in the Premier League looking at their stats and it’s hard to see past an Arsenal win here. Arsenal have been excellent going forward too; their average xG created this season is 1.77 and at home that increases to 1.99. Away from home, West Ham’s stats have been so poor. Their average xG created is only 1.13 and their conceded figure is a whopping 1.91! Obviously they have been grinding out results and they deserve massive credit for that, I will lower stakes will that in mind, but Arsenal can produce a smooth win here. I like them to 1.5 goal Handicap and the 1.96 looks a cracking price. If West Ham weren’t grinding out so many results I’d have a Max Bet on this, but three points feels the right stake.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal -1.5 goals to beat West Ham at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsWhu
