MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between CREMONESE v SAMPDORIA and CELTA VIGO v GETAFE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CREMONESE V SAMPDORIA
5.30pm The busy run of fixtures around Europe continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Monday night football coming from Serie A and La Liga. We have another very busy week as we return to Champions League and Europa League action, but we start it with a huge relegation six pointer in Serie A. Cremonese host Sampdoria with both sides taking up the bottom two places in the table. At the moment Sampdoria sit bottom with three points, while Cremonese are sitting just above them on four. They are the only sides left in Serie A this season not to win a game, and after both playing ten games each they are clearly in big trouble. Even if there is a winner today, both sides can easily still go down this season. Even though they are in a very worrying position already, probably more worrying has been their performances. They are both sitting in the bottom three on the xG table too, showing that they actually deserve to be where they are. As you would expect, we have a reasonably open market. Cremonese come into the game as favourites with home advantage – currently trading 2.44 at the time of writing.
With both sides playing such average football, keeping stakes low in this one is a must. It’s actually hard to judge their under-lining numbers because both are clearly playing at a poor level. Probably as you would expect, their figures are poor. Cremonese are conceding an average xG of 2.1 this season and only creating 1.2. While Sampdoria are conceding an average of 1.6 but only creating 0.8. Sampdoria clearly have bigger issues going forward, while Cremonese have bigger issues at the back! What will likely decide the game here is that battle, and who wins out between the Sampdoria attack and Cremonese defence. Given Cremonese have home advantage, the average football fan will feel that definitely helps them a little here but they have been so poor at home. Their xG figures at home this season have been 0.86, 0.43, 1.31 and 0.98 while conceding 2.39, 1.59, 3.14 and 4.16. Admittedly those last two figures came against Napoli and Lazio but they just aren’t creating chances at home. I know Sampdoria are a very limited side too, but their away performances haven’t been as bad as Cremonese at home. Like I said I’m happy to keep stakes small here, and I’m happy to take a chance with one point on Sampdoria at 3.2.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Sampdoria to beat Cremonese at 3.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CreSam
CELTA VIGO V GETAFE
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Celta Vigo host Getafe. While these two aren’t quite in the position of the Serie A game above, they have both started the season very poorly. They are hanging around the La Liga relegation battle and you’d have to say they are both in the mix this season sitting in the bottom five. Celta Vigo come into the game as odds on favourites, but they have only managed one more point than Getafe this season and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top. Getafe clearly had issues away from home last season – on the away table they finished in the bottom three, however it’s not like Celta were rock solid at home. They did beat Real Betis 1-0 here after the International break though which is clearly a good performance – it was a tight game and they grinded out a win. Other than that result, their xG figures have been reasonably low at home, but what I would say overall is that Celta haven’t been playing as bad as their position in the table suggests. For example their average xG conceded this season is sitting at 1.5 but they are actually conceding 2 goals per game – given they haven’t been that bad at the back you would expect them to concede less goals as the season goes on. If they keep conceding an average of 2 though then they are in big trouble! Getafe’s issues also come at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.6, again they are conceding over that just like Celta and both sides are very similar going forward – averaging about 1 goal per game.
Although Getafe were poor away from home last season, and indeed start the season poorly losing 3-1 to Girona and then 5-1 against Valencia, they have improved since. They grinded out a 2-0 win over Osasuna and drew 0-0 with Rayo Vallecano. Both times they were a little lucky looking at the xG figures, and while Celta should get the job done here I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.78. I wouldn’t want to be against Celta here, but it’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter given their low level this season. Getafe are going to try and keep this game tight, but with so many mistakes from both sides at the back I’m going to take a chance on goals here. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 2.5 when I clicked into the market – perhaps the market is focusing on both sides going forward but I can see a lot of mistakes here. It only takes an early goal to see the game really open up and then we could see a host of chances. Obviously I am happy to keep stakes limited given the level of both sides, but Over 2.5 goals looks a nice option.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelGet
