MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LECCE v UDINESE and BARCELONA v REAL SOCIEDAD both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LECCE V UDINESE
5.30pm Monday night football from Europe comes from Serie A and La Liga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! We have two fascinating games to look at, Barcelona v Real Sociedad is undoubtedly the high quality game of the night in La Liga, but we kick it off with a huge game in the relegation battle from Serie A. Lecce host Udinese with Udinese sitting in the bottom three at the moment – however with Frosinone losing to Inter Milan on Friday night, a win here for Udinese would see them jump over Frosinone as the gap is only two points. There’s actually plenty of sides in the Serie A relegation battle this season – even Lecce who sit up in 13th are only seven points ahead of Udinese – obviously they are safe but from 14th down have been in the relegation battle. We have an exceptionally open betting heat, and Lecce some into the game as favourites at 2.82 with Udinese 2.98 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. These two have really struggled to score goals this season, and it’s not a surprise to see such an open market – everything suggests this will be a very close game.
Both sides are scoring less than one goal per game on average this season. Lecce have been creating the better chances – their average xG created is 1.36 compared to Udinese at only 1.08. That Udinese figure puts them in the bottom four for chances created this season, so it’s no surprise to see them struggling and in the relegation zone. They both have exactly the same figure at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.45, and they are both within 0.05 of that range too for actual goals conceded. For a side scoring so little goals, Udinese actually haven’t done that badly away from home – it is their home form that’s been a major issue for them this season. They actually have more points away from home compared to at home – I always feel in a relegation battle home form is always key and that really hurt Udinese this season. Everything I see here screams a very close game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 to be honest, however the draw stands out as the best bet here at 3.2. I know we have an open market, I would have it almost 3.0 on every outcome.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Draw at 3.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LecUdi
BARCELONA V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night with a cracker as Barcelona host Real Sociedad. It’s going to be interesting times ahead at Barcelona over the summer – Real Madrid have won the title quite easily this season, their bitter rivals are also in the Champions League Final and arguably the best player in the world is arriving soon in Mbappe. Barcelona can’t afford to sit still, but then they’ve had all those money issues so it’s unlikely they spend big in the transfer market. Although Barcelona never really got into the title race this season, their under-lining numbers have always been very close to Real Madrid. They are only 0.07 behind them going forward and 0.11 at the back on xG. They’ve been a little sloppy at the back at times this season, and that’s cost them. I wouldn’t say they have to change much going forward at all, they just need to focus on being tighter at the back. This season feels like the start of a run of dominance from Real Madrid now with Mbappe arriving too; Barcelona have to be panicking and if they aren’t then you’d wonder why not.
They come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.86 with Real Sociedad 4.7 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Real Sociedad came into this matchday only two points ahead of Real Betis in the race for sixth spot and a place in Europe so they are finishing the season under pressure. They have been exceptionally strong at the back this season – they are in the top three for goals conceded and their average xG conceded is only 1.09. That’s only 0.01 behind Real Madrid for example. Obviously they are going to come into this game with quite negative tactics; a draw away to Barcelona is always a good result in fairness. That would make you lean towards Under 2.5 goals at 1.99 but the worry is that Barcelona have played such an open game this season. With the title gone they have opened up even more – since losing El Clasico 3-2 they have won and lost 4-2 to Valencia and Girona. I’m going to keep stakes small here because of that, but the way Sociedad will set up here makes me feel that the 1.99 is value on Under 2.5 goals. Sociedad won’t see a lot of the ball to create chances, and they are very solid at the back so I expect a low scoring game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarSci
