MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s matches between FIORENTINA v LAZIO and ELCHE v MALLORCA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FIORENTINA V LAZIO
7.45pm The fixtures keep coming thick and fast in Europe at the moment as we start another week of action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have some huge European ties in the Champions League to enjoy this week, but we kick the week off with Monday night football from Serie A and La Liga! We have a cracking fixture in Serie A to start the week as Fiorentina lost Lazio; this should be a high quality game and it’s no surprise that we have an open market too. As you would expect with home advantage, Fiorentina come into the game as favourites but Lazio have started the season very strongly – whatever way you look at things we should have a very close game here! Lazio started the weekend sitting just within the top four in fourth – they have collected 17 points from their eight games and given the slow starts from Inter Milan and Juventus, they can be hopeful of actually breaking into the top four this season. They finished six points behind Juventus last season, but Juventus have started very poorly and they look pretty average so far – there is definitely a chance there for Lazio to jump into fourth from finishing fifth last season. Of course, Jose Mourinho’s Roma are also in the mix and while they started the weekend one point behind Lazio they have been playing superb football. They actually top the xG table.
Fiorentina currently sit in mid-table, but I’m sure they will climb up as the season goes on. They did well to finish in seventh last season and get a spot in the Europa Conference League. If you look at the xG table, Fiorentina actually move up to seventh, but very interestingly for this fixture we can see Lazio are down in the bottom half of the table! You can see why Fiorentina are favourites but I wouldn’t say they have really been impressive this season. They have thrown in some games with impressive performances like the xG of 1.81 in a 1-1 draw with Juventus here, but then they have put in a lot of sub 1.0 xG performances too. I basically think summing up Fiorentina is a Europa Conference spot is a fair reflection of their level. Lazio have rode their luck at times – for example they beat Inter Milan 3-1 while conceding an xG of over double what they managed, but that’s what you have to do against Inter – they aren’t giving away many chances. They have been consistent this season and scored a lot of goals – they arrive here off the back of two 4-0 wins against Spezia and Cremonese. I have to say the 5-1 loss to Midtjylland in the Europa League was bizarre, but you can’t knock them in Serie A – I feel they will get a result here, and I’m happy to lay Fiorentina without going too mad on the staking.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Fiorentina to beat Lazio at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioLaz
ELCHE V MALLORCA
8pm Next we move to La Liga as Elche host Mallorca. Perhaps it’s unfair on Mallorca to call this a relegation battle given they started the weekend sitting in 12th, however they did only stay up on the final day last season and I’m sure they will be in the mix again this season. I feel they will finish a little higher this season and have a little less stress – there definitely looks to be at least four teams worse than them this season. Unfortunately for Elche, they appear to be one of them. Elche are nailed to the bottom of the table at the moment with just one point from their opening seven games. It’s a little surprising that they have been this bad because they did managed to end up finishing in 13th last season – I know they are always one of the more likely teams to be involved in a relegation battle but usually they grind out a few results. The main problem for Elche now is that Cadiz are starting to grind out results now, and it’s obvious Sevilla won’t be here for long – Almeria look like they will probably go down, and Elche just need to start putting a few points together before the gap gets too big. Morale must be low at this stage, and they really do need a confidence boosting win – you’d have to feel at home to Mallorca is a likely fixture for this, but Elche haven’t got much going for them.
They have had a reasonably difficult fixture list – they have had to play Real Betis, Real Sociedad, Villarreal and Barcelona already. They also lost 4-1 to Athletic Bilbao too. They lost a tight game last weekend to Rayo Vallecano, but they could only manage a 1-1 draw here against Almeria which is worrying. To be honest there isn’t much to write home about in their performances – they generally don’t create much. Their xG against Barcelona was only 0.03! I know it’s Barcelona but that’s probably going to be the lowest xG figure all season in La Liga. Mallorca actually played really well against Barcelona last weekend, and they didn’t deserve to lose. They have definitely created more than Elche this season and they have been able to grind out results too. It’s easy to understand why we have an open market here with Elche having home advantage, but I think it will pay to back Mallorca here. Elche have looked terrible this season and Mallorca have definitely been better going forward – they are worth backing at 2.48.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Mallorca to beat Elche at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ElcMal
