MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FIORENTINA v GENOA and ATALANTA v VERONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FIORENTINA V GENOA
5.30pm The focus for Monday night football from Europe is on Serie A this week! We have two fixtures to enjoy on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two home favourites. We start with Fiorentina hosting Genoa, and Fiorentina come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.95 with Genoa 4.7 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. Fiorentina have really struggled for wins recently, after a red-hot start to the season they have only recorded two Serie A wins in their last twelve games. That’s not a good stat to read when considering whether or not to back an odds on shot, but there are a lot of reasons to like Fiorentina at 1.95 here. Their performance levels have been much better at home compared away this season – at home they have been creating a decent level of chances and they have been reasonably solid at the back too. Their average xG conceded at home is just 1.12, while I know they have been struggling to get over the line and win games, from that run of twelve games they just lost at home to Inter Milan and AC Milan – every other game they drew, and their two wins in that run came here too.
I was surprised to see them trading as high as 1.95 when I clicked into the market. Genoa are only one of three sides in Serie A with an average xG created under 1.0 this season; they have been very limited going forward but the reason why they aren’t closer to the relegation battle with that stat is that they have been pretty solid at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.3 is very respectable. They are clearly well set up at the back, and Fiorentina are going to have to work very hard to break through. However, Genoa’s average xG created away from home is only 0.83 which is an exceptionally low figure. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.83 and Both Teams Not To Score is 1.97 which is a very attractive price in my opinion. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest; I do like the Fiorentina bet but with that Genoa attacking figure away from home I feel we’re getting the best value with Both Teams Not To Score at 1.97.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioGen
ATALANTA V VERONA
7.45pm Next we have Atalanta hosting Verona, and this is a massive game for both sides for different reasons. Atalanta have had a very poor run of results domestically recently; just one win from their last six Serie A games. That has put them on the backfoot in the race for the European spots and they started this matchday sitting in sixth place five points behind Roma. They do have a game in hand though. They shocked everyone last Thursday night with a 3-0 win at Anfield – Liverpool started that game at 1.38 to win and Atalanta went a long way to putting the tie to bed! It was an incredible result for them. While they have the second leg of that tie coming up on Thursday night, they can’t afford to take their eye off the ball here – they could easily miss out on a European spot this season. Verona are slap-bang in the relegation battle this season, there’s actually a lot of sides included in the Serie A relegation battle; Genoa are the only side safe from 12th down! Verona started this matchday sitting in 17th spot, only one point away from the relegation zone.
Atalanta will be expected to win here, and they come into the game as the 1.49 favourites with Verona 7.8 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. Despite Atalanta’s recent run, they have an average xG created of 1.58 which is the third best attacking figure in Serie A – there’s quite a gap but only Napoli and Inter Milan are creating more. Verona have an average xG created of 1.25 which is basically a mid-table level, it’s not an impressive figure but it’s better than a lot of sides around them in the relegation battle. They have really struggled to convert those chances though, they are scoring less than one goal per game on average. This should be an interesting game; Atalanta look the right price at 1.49 – it’s hard to argue that they should be shorter to be honest, although they have had a very difficult fixture list in that poor run of results. Verona don’t create much away from home, and they are more solid at the back than some of the other sides in the relegation battle. I feel Atalanta will have to grind out a win here, and Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 2.15.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaVer
