MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ROMA v BOLOGNA and AC MILAN v INTER MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V BOLOGNA
5.30pm Some Monday night football fixtures are better than others, and we have a cracking Monday night on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE from Serie A! The highlight of the night is undoubtedly the Milan Derby, but we have a huge top four clash before that as Roma host Bologna. Roma have been on an incredible run since sacking Jose Mourinho – they progressed to the Europa League Semi-Finals on Thursday night and they’ve only lost once in Serie A with that coming against Inter Milan. As things stand, Roma are four points behind Bologna with a game in hand, so obviously this game is absolutely massive. I don’t think there’s anyone else in the mix for that fourth spot either; Lazio are within three points of Roma but they’ve played two more games – plus they have been pretty average this season. A massive game awaits then, and Roma will be delighted to have home advantage – the stadium will be absolutely rocking. We have an open market, Roma are the favourites at 2.42 with Bologna 3.4 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. The market is expecting a pretty cagey affair with Under 2.5 goals as short as 1.6.
Roma definitely opened up after sacking Jose Mourinho – we saw lots of goals in the games after but that has stopped in recent games. Obviously they had a very tight two legs against AC Milan in the Europa League but Unders has collect in the last three Roma Serie A games too. Plus, they haven’t created as much – their three xG figures have been 1.2, 1.19 and 1.3. Bologna have been very solid all over the pitch this season, and Roma are going to have to work very hard to win. Bologna have an average xG conceded of 1.16 which is the joint-fourth best defensive figure in Serie A; however that being said Roma aren’t far behind them at 1.21! It’s easy to see why we have an open market here and I would definitely recommend the draw at 3.25 in the match odds market. I couldn’t put anyone off a small bet at those odds, however this game screams a lack of chances and goals. I know the market is expecting Unders because it’s 1.6, but there’s still value in that price in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomBlg
AC MILAN V INTER MILAN
7.45pm Next we have the highlight of the night as AC Milan and Inter Milan clash in the latest Milan Derby. It’s a little unusual to have a game like this on a Monday night in Serie A, but obviously AC Milan were involved in the Europa League Quarter-Finals last Thursday. Unfortunately for them too, they exited Europe. Although this is a top of the table clash, the title race is most certainly over with Inter Milan 14 points clear! AC Milan will be delighted with a comfortable top four spot to be honest though; they finished fourth last season but that was due to the Juventus points deduction really. This is always an excellent clash, even if sometimes it’s a little cagey – Inter Milan are the favourites at 2.04 with AC Milan 4.0 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. There’s definitely a gulf in class between the sides when you look at the under-lining numbers, but obviously that’s well reflected in the table in fairness! Inter Milan have an average xG created of 1.82 compared to AC Milan at 1.58. Inter have been the best side at the back in Serie A with an average xG conceded of just 1.06 whereas AC Milan sit in mid-table with a figure of 1.3 in that department.
We’ve had a lot of massive games between these two, and Inter Milan can confirm the title with a win here – you could have said it was a “meaningless” game given the gap is so big, but Inter would dearly love to win confirm the title win against their rivals. Inter actually set a new record in their last game when scoring in their last 40 Serie A games – the 2.04 looks a good position here given they have won the last five derbies too. They have been a level above AC Milan for a while really. However, Over 2.5 goals is definitely another good option at 1.79. As I said above, we can get a cagey affair between these two but I just don’t see that being the case here and I expect them to go toe-to-toe. A draw is no good for either side – especially with Inter chasing the title confirmation against their bitter rivals. If Inter win they’ll actually set another record; you have to go back to the 1940s for the last time someone won six Milan derbies in a row. I couldn’t put anyone off Inter at 2.04, but I really like Overs at the odds in what should be an entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilMil
