SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v GLADBACH, ALAVES v BARCELONA and GIRONA v REAL SOCIEDAD all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V GLADBACH
2.30pm It’s another cracking Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have action from the Bundesliga and La Liga with Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Girona all in action. We kick off the day in the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich hosting Gladbach. Bayern will be fully expected to win here, and they come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as short as 1.18 at the time of writing – no prizes for guessing that is the shortest price in Germany this weekend! Indeed, it’s one of the shortest prices around Europe. If you fancy a shock then Gladbach are 19.0 and the draw is 9.8. Bayern have bounced back since their shock loss here against Werder Bremen with wins against Union Berlin and Augsburg. Xabi Alonso has Bayer Leverkusen playing some immense football this season though, and Bayern Munich are still two points behind them. It could have been an even bigger gap though; after losing to Werder Bremen the gap was seven points with Bayern having a game in hand which they won. Gladbach actually held Bayer Leverkusen to a 0-0 draw away from home last weekend however!
Gladbach have been very average this season, and although they picked up that 0-0 draw away from home last weekend they were totally outplayed. Bayer Leverkusen finished the game with an xG of over 3.0 and we’re exceptionally unlucky not to score – it was just one of those days! After being a top four side, Gladbach are now closer to the relegation battle these days. Their average xG conceded this season is as high as 1.84 which is the worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga. They might have got lucky last weekend, but I can’t see lightening striking twice here. You’d have to fear for Gladbach here bringing that exceptionally high average xG conceded figure to Bayern Munich away! I feel this is about how many goals Bayern can score, and I can see them doing very well – Any Other Home Win (Bayern to score four or more and win) is trading 2.36 in the Correct Score market and that looks a very good option to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayGld
ALAVES V BARCELONA
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga as Alaves host Barcelona. Alaves will be very pleased with their season so far as they sit safely in mid-table after coming up from the Segunda playoffs. They have been pretty strong at home too, and it will be interesting to see how Barcelona get on here. Barcelona have the best attacking average xG figure in La Liga this season, but they have already dropped so many points. Another loss to Villarreal last weekend left them sitting eleven points behind Girona who topped the table. They played their game in hand midweek, and while Barcelona have been excellent going forward this season there have been signs all season that they have issues at the back. I feel the best word to describe them is sloppy really – their average xG conceded of 1.21 isn’t bad but they have been conceding more goals than that. They shouldn’t be shipping five goals to Villarreal when they have home advantage! Nevertheless, they come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.75 with Alaves 5.2 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. I felt that Barcelona were very short midweek trading in the 1.3’s to beat Osasuna, indeed they hit the 1.4’s before kick off, and again I feel that they are too short here at 1.75.
I just don’t see the value in that price, and it’s hard to argue the point that they should be a lot shorter considering the goals they are conceding. Real Madrid played Alaves here just before Christmas, and Real had to work exceptionally hard to win, only scoring in the 92nd minute for a 1-0 win. Alaves kept them down to an xG of 1.24 which was a very good performance; they come into this game in good form too and their figures at home have been impressive this season. Their average xG created at 1.43 is solid and their average xG conceded is only 1.12 which is impressive. I fully accept that Barcelona have been playing some excellent football at times, but things aren’t working as they should at the back either. That’s why Xavi is leaving after all and why they are out of the title race already. I expect a closer game than the odds suggest here, and the 1.75 is worth laying from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Alaves at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaBar
GIRONA V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish the day as Girona host Real Sociedad. Girona fans can still dream for the moment, but Real Madrid are starting to look unstoppable at the moment. It feels like they will soon take over, and that’s been reflected with the market moves. Still, Girona have to be absolutely delighted with where they are at this stage of the season. I suppose the reality of the situation with Girona is that they eventually have to start over-performing. Their goals scored and conceded are hugely over/under what is expected. Their average xG created is 1.55 which is the fifth best attacking figure in La Liga but their actual goals scored average is a whopping 2.36 which is the best figure in the league. It’s a similar story with their chances conceded too – their average xG conceded is 1.47 which is quite high for a side sitting in the top four, but their actual goals scored average is just 1.14. They are clearly having an amazing season, playing with so much confidence and everything is going well – but eventually they have to stop scoring from awkward angles and sides will start taking their chances against them too – that’s just probability.
That’s reflected in the odds here in my opinion. Girona have a whopping 19 point advantage over Real Sociedad, but they don’t come into the game as the odds on favourites. Girona are trading 2.26 with Real Sociedad 3.5 and the draw is the same price at 3.5 too at the time of writing. Real Sociedad will clearly be disappointed with their season and dropping out of the top four, but the way Girona have played is obviously exceptionally hard to live with. They have tried to keep games as tight as possible this season, and that’s probably cost them going forward. Their average xG created is just 1.17 which is a pretty poor level. They have an average xG conceded of 1.19 though which is why they are towards the European spots rather than the relegation spots! Obviously Girona have been massively over-performing this season, but their under-lining numbers are still way ahead of Sociedad. With home advantage, Girona are worth backing here at 2.26. I just feel Real Sociedad are there for the taking and obviously Girona are full of confidence at the moment. I feel the 2.26 is ten ticks too big, and it’s a confident bet to end the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Girona to beat Real Sociedad at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirSoc
