SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the pick of the top European action this weekend starting with AC Milan v Lazio in Serie A. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V LAZIO
5pm What a fantastic Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have some brilliant fixtures from Serie A and the Bundesliga – all eyes will be on RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga but we start the day with a cracker in Serie A as AC Milan host Lazio. We had a very busy week in Serie A which saw two wins for these sides – AC Milan beat Cagliari while Lazio beat Torino. It was a fantastic week for AC Milan who joined Inter Milan at the top of the table with 15 points after Inter suffered a shock defeat at home to Sassuolo. I felt Inter were going to start running away with the title race, especially with Napoli dropping points, but that result open things up for the time being! Despite the win midweek, Lazio will be unhappy with their season so far. They currently sit in mid-table, and they’ve a lot of work to do already if they are going to get back into the top four race. You have to give them massive credit for grinding out so many results last season, but their under-lining numbers weren’t even close to the sides around them and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them not even involved in the top four race this season.
AC Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.84 at the time of writing with Lazio 5.1 and the draw is 3.75. I know Lazio haven’t been close to their best this season, but the 1.84 definitely feels a little short on AC Milan here. On paper they have started the season strongly, but their under-lining numbers tell a different story. They are only creating an average xG of 1.22 while conceding an average of 1.20. Only marginally creating more than they concede, and while I’m not a huge fan of Lazio I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest here. Lazio’s under-lining numbers aren’t impressive either, but they know how to grind out results. Their average xG created is the same as AC Milan, but they are conceding more chances. I’m happy to keep stakes small here because there are question marks about both sides, but the 1.84 on AC Milan looks a nice value lay. Lazio surprised Napoli away from home and they can get a result here.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Lazio at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmLzi
RB LEIPZIG V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga for the highlight of the day as RB Leipzig host Bayern Munich. After Bayern were held to a draw recently against Bayer Leverkusen, there’s only one point between the sides with plenty on the line here! Since losing their opening game of the season against Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig have been in superb form and have won every game since. It was a busy midweek in Europe, and both sides won their German Cup midweek fixtures. It’s no surprise that Bayern have the best under-lining numbers in the Bundesliga – they are just levels above everyone else really. Even when everything went wrong last season they still ended up winning the title on the final day. They come into this game with the highest average xG figure created this season, along with the lowest average conceded xG too. They are the only side conceding an average of under 1.0 – it’s only marginal at 0.97 but the Bundesliga is a high scoring league after all! RB Leipzig clearly can’t live up to those standards, but they have been playing a nice brand of football this season. They create a decent level at an average xG of 1.61 and they are solid at the back too – their average xG conceded is 1.18 which is the third best in the Bundesliga behind Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.
With RB Leipzig having home advantage, this should be a cracker. As you would expect though, Bayern Munich still come into the game as the favourites. They are trading ever so slightly odds on at the time of writing. The away win is 1.97 with RB Leipzig 3.65 and the draw is 4.4. I wouldn’t worry about Bayern away from home – they are actually conceding less chances away from home this season! RB Leipzig do have an excellent recent record against Bayern though – they beat them 3-1 and got a 1-1 draw last season, along with a 3-0 win in the German Super Cup as well. We generally see fireworks when these two meet, and it’s no surprise to see Both Teams To Score trading 1.45 with Over 2.5 goals the same price. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes here, but the 1.97 is too big on Bayern in my opinion. I know Leipzig have been playing some nice football, but Bayern are on a different level; you can clearly see how good they have been playing this season looking at the xG figures and they can get the win here. It’s not quite a Max Bet, but a confident one with controlled stakes!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat RB Leipzig at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiBay
SALERNITANA V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We move back to Serie A to finish a cracking Saturday as Salernitana host Inter Milan. As I mentioned above, Inter Milan had a shock setback midweek when losing to Sassuolo on Wednesday night with home advantage too. They had been so strong at the start of the season that result was definitely a big surprise – they were creating an average xG of very close to 2.0 and conceding an average very close to 1.0. Pretty much perfect, title winning figures. With Napoli already dropping points this season, I felt Inter might build up a little gap in the title race but that result has certainly added a nice spice to this weekend and opened things up. It was a full midweek fixture list so Salernitana were also in action, and they lost 1-0 to Empoli. Salernitana were 11 points away from the relegation zone last season, and while they weren’t really ever concerned with the relegation battle because the bottom four clubs were so far adrift, they were very average finishing in 15th. They have started this season on the backfoot too with just three points from their six games, and they could get dragged into the relegation battle this season.
Inter come into the game as the heavy favourites at 1.45, and if you fancy another shock Salernitana are 8.6 and the draw is 5.1. Salernitana are a pretty average side, the best that they can hope for a draw here in my opinion. They will approach the game in that fashion, and we could get quite a cagey start too. Salernitana haven’t been conceding too many chances this season; their average xG conceded is only 1.35. They are creating marginally less than that, and coupled with the Inter Milan figures at the back. This is a game for small stakes in my opinion, the 1.45 on Inter doesn’t make massive appeal and I’m happy to go with Both Teams Not To Score at 1.94. Salernitana will focus on being strong at the back here, and that will hugely hamper them going forward – I expect Inter to boss the game and have the lions share of the ball too. They can keep a clean sheet and the 1.94 is worth a small bet.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SlnInt
