SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL BETIS v REAL MADRID, DORTMUND v RB LEIPZIG and INTER MILAN v UDINESE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL BETIS V REAL MADRID
3.15pm We have another cracking Saturday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! Real Madrid, Dortmund and Inter Milan are all in action in La Liga, the Bundesliga and Serie A. We should have an excellent day ahead, and we get the action started in La Liga with Real Betis hosting Real Madrid. It was a good weekend for Real Madrid last weekend; they held onto their spot at the top of the table on goal difference with Girona, but more importantly they still have a four point lead over their main title rivals Barcelona. Everyone is assuming that Girona surely fall away from the title race at some stage, but they are hanging on in fairness and just keep winning! At the moment, it looks like they are nailed on for a top four spot which would be an incredible achievement. Real Betis have been a little off the pace at the start of the season – any idea they had of moving from fifth into the top four when Sevilla dropped out quickly went away last season, and it’s been a similar story for them this season too. They start the weekend sitting in seventh, already six points from Atletico Madrid who actually have a game in hand too.
You could be forgiven for thinking this will be a routine win for Real Madrid. They come into the game as the odds on favourites, but they aren’t trading exceptionally short. They are 1.88 at the time of writing with Real Betis 4.4 and the draw is 4.0. There’s a huge gulf in performance level between the sides this season, and I really like the Real Madrid bet at 1.88 here. Real have been exceptional going forward; their average xG created of 2.0 is the best in La Liga and they have been rock solid at the back too. They are only conceding an average xG of 1.16 which is also the best figure in La Liga. Real Betis have been conceding more chances than they are creating – their average xG conceded of 1.48 is in the bottom six figures at the back. In fairness, their main issues at the back have some away from home. In front of their own fans they have been much more solid at the back, but they come up against one of the top sides in Europe here and given all their issues this season I just can’t see them stopping Jude Bellingham and co from scoring. Real Betis have actually only managed to score once in the last five meetings with Real Betis, but they have picked up three 0-0 draws in that period. I think 0-0 is the best they can hope for again, but the 1.88 on Real is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid to beat Real Betis at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetRea
DORTMUND V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga for the highlight of the day as Dortmund host RB Leipzig. This should be an absolute cracker! It’s a very important game for both sides too looking at the table; I’m sure they will expect Stuttgart to drop out of the top four but at the start of the weekend RB Leipzig sit in fourth with Dortmund just one point behind them in fifth. Stuttgart might not drop out either, which means one of these two will miss out on Champions League football next season. Stuttgart did finish in the relegation playoff spot last season though, so it’s likely these two will actually jump over Stuttgart but to be fair to Stuttgart their xG figures are very impressive this season and they deserve to be where they are. Stuttgart actually have a higher average xG than Dortmund and RB Leipzig. As you would expect, we have a very open market – Dortmund come into the game as marginal favourites with home advantage. Dortmund are trading 2.54 with RB Leipzig 2.68 and the draw is 4.0. The market is also expecting plenty of goals; Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.46 while Both Teams To Score is two ticks lower at 1.44.
Dortmund have been playing an exceptionally open game this season, so it’s hard not to expect goals here. Their average xG conceded is a very high 1.51 for a side that could be in the title race – the Bundesliga is a high scoring league of course, but that figure is simply too high. Especially when you also add into the mix that they are only creating an average of 1.56 so they are basically creating what they concede. RB Leipzig have been a lot more solid at the back, and that could be the difference here. Their average xG conceded is only 1.14 which is the fourth best figure in the Bundesliga – the four sides with the best record at the back are starting the weekend in the top four; that’s no surprise! Most of Dortmund’s issues have come away from home, so I’m not going to go crazy on RB Leipzig however I feel that the 2.68 is worth backing. They have won four of the last five meetings between the sides, and they are playing much better football this season.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win RB Leipzig to beat Dortmund at 2.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorLei
INTER MILAN V UDINESE
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish the action on Saturday as Inter Milan host Udinese. I have to say the situation in Serie A this season is fascinating. Juventus and Napoli clash on Friday night so Inter Milan should know where they stand when this game kicks off, but teams are playing well and not getting points. Others are grinding out results without playing well. AC Milan are one of those sides for example –their average xG created is only 1.32 which is mid-table form, and they are conceding an average very close to that at 1.3. Inter Milan are one of the sides who have been playing superb football, and they deserve to be sitting top of the table heading into this weekend. Napoli are actually creating more chances on average, but they have dropped so many points already this season. Inter Milan have an average xG created is 1.74 and they have been rock solid at the back too; their average xG conceded is only 1.02 which is the joint-best figure in Serie A this season along with Jose Mourinho’s Roma. Udinese have extremely similar stats to AC Milan as mentioned above; their average xG created is the same at 1.3, but they are conceding marginally over that at 1.31.
The difference between AC Milan and Udinese is 17 points; that’s the remarkable thing about the top four in Italy this season. Juventus have been playing average football too but grinding out so many results. Udinese are under pressure at the bottom of the table, they started the weekend sitting in 16th just two points off the relegation zone. They are too good to go down, but obviously it’s not a nice position to be in. As you would expect, Inter Milan come into this game as the heavy favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading as low as 1.28 with Udinese 12.0 and the draw is 6.4 at the time of writing. It’s hard to see past the Inter win here, and we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Udinese have really struggled to create chances away from home; their average xG is just 1.14 on the road this season and with Inter being so solid at the back, I like Both Teams Not To Score at 1.78 which looks cracking value. It takes out the element of how many goals can Inter score, and I really fancy them keeping a clean sheet on the way to winning here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntUdi
