SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews STUTTGART v BAYER LEVERKUSEN, ROMA v FIORENTINA and BARCELONA v GIRONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
STUTTGART V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
2.30pm We have another cracking Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga! We start the day in the Bundesliga with a superb fixture as Stuttgart host Bayer Leverkusen. These two start the weekend sitting in the top three, and this is another huge challenge for Bayer Leverkusen who dropped points for the first time in a while last weekend with a draw against Dortmund. It’s hard to believe we are talking about Stuttgart like this given they finished in the relegation playoff spot last season, but credit where credit is due – they have been superb this season. They start the weekend in third four points ahead of RB Leipzig and five ahead of Dortmund – it would be quite the story if they could stop either of those sides getting Champions League football. Looking at the under-lining numbers too this isn’t a fluke! Stuttgart are averaging an xG created of 1.77 which is the third best figure in the Bundesliga behind Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen. Their average xG conceded is only 1.13 too; again the third best figure behind Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen come into this weekend sitting top of the table, but this is going to be a massive test for them. We have a reasonably open market, but Bayer Leverkusen are favourites at 2.3 with Stuttgart 3.05 and the draw is 3.95. Bayer Leverkusen are playing better football compared to Stuttgart this season, but there really isn’t much between the sides looking at the under-lining numbers. Leverkusen have been better going forward, with both sides very similar at the back. I do feel that the 2.3 is a little short on Leverkusen; I expect a closer game than the odds suggest here. I know it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in Stuttgart because of where they finished last season, but they have been very strong this season. Their average xG created at home is over 2.0 and their average conceded is under 1.0 – that’s an exceptional level, and they are obviously full of confidence at home. Leverkusen have decent figures away, and they have been fantastic this season too – I just can’t have them as short as 2.3 here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Bayer Leverkusen to beat Stuttgart at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/StuLev
ROMA V FIORENTINA
7.45pm Next we move over to Serie A as Roma host Fiorentina. After Napoli lost last weekend, Roma head into this matchday sitting in the top four. Of course, staying there is going to be a massive challenge. If I had to suggest what might happen – I would lean towards Napoli jumping over them back into the top four and possibly AC Milan dropping out. Fiorentina will be a massive test for Roma here; their xG figures are highly impressive. They are creating more chances than Roma – their average xG created is 1.55 which is the third best attacking figure in Serie A this season behind Napoli and Inter Milan. As we know though by looking at Napoli; chances created doesn’t always equal points! The 1.55 figure is a good bit better than Roma’s 1.37, but Roma have been excellent at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.02 is the joint-best figure in Serie A this season, but Fiorentina aren’t too far away with an average xG conceded of 1.16 too. Despite Roma having a reasonably low xG created figure – mid-table standard really – they have been banging in the goals from all angles, and they are definitely over-performing in front of goal at the moment.
Roma come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. They are 2.16 at the time of writing with Fiorentina 4.0 and the draw is 3.4. It’s easy to understand why Roma aren’t odds on favourites; Fiorentina are only one point behind Roma in the table and their performance level is very good. The big negative here for Fiorentina is they haven’t been as good away from home this season; they are conceding more chances than they are creating away from home. It’s hard to be confident with them looking at those figures, but you wouldn’t exactly be rushing to take the 2.16 on Roma. Like I said, they are over-performing in front of goal. They have been rock solid at the back though, and Fiorentina will want to keep this game as tight as possible. I’m going to stay away from the match odds market here as I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.71 – I think this game screams a cagey affair without many chances.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomFio
BARCELONA V GIRONA
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the Sunday action as Barcelona host Girona. If you were a casual football fan and didn’t follow La Liga, you might think this will be a routine win for Barcelona but that isn’t the case this season! Girona have been exceptional, and they started the weekend sitting in second place only behind Real Madrid on goal difference. They have a four point advantage over Barcelona who really need to win this game to close that gap. Everyone has just been waiting for Girona to drop points but they just keep on winning games and getting results; it’s hard to knock them! Their average xG figures have dropped a little in recent weeks, but their average xG created of 1.56 is still a solid figure. They have been grinding out results and getting the job done; you can’t knock that! It would be absolutely incredible if they could hang on and finish in the top four – they finished sixth in Segunda in 2021/22 before finishing in mid-table in La Liga this season. They could easily finish in the top four though; Sevilla are miles off the pace again closer to the relegation zone than the top four, and Real Sociedad who took their place last season have dropped plenty of points already this season.
Girona start this weekend with a ten point advantage over Athletic Bilbao who sit in fifth; that’s a huge cushion to have really. It will be fascinating to see how they perform here. I know Barcelona aren’t in the Camp Nou this season but they have been fantastic at home. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.56 with Girona 6.0 and the draw is 5.0. While Barcelona are four points behind Girona, it’s hard to fault them – their average xG is a high 1.78 and they are the second best team at the back with an average xG conceded of just 1.17. On paper, they are much better than Girona but you have to respect the fact Girona have collected so many points this season. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.56 on Barcelona here; it’s just hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter. Girona have been quite open in their away games though, and they have conceded a fair few chances away from home. I like Over 2.5 goals here at 1.51 – it’s only five ticks shorter than the Barcelona price, but it’s a much better value bet in my opinion. I can’t see Barcelona sitting back here, and Girona will fight fire-with-fire in my opinion. I’d be surprised if we don’t see plenty of goals here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrcGir