SUNDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s European action from La Liga and the Bundesliga with recommended BETDAQ bets.
HOFFENHEIM V UNION BERLIN
2.30pm What a Super Sunday ahead in Europe! We have some top class games today, and we start the day in the Bundesliga with Hoffenheim hosting Union Berlin. Hoffenheim were one of the most impressive sides over the opening weekend with a 4-0 win over Augsburg. I know Augsburg are a limited side, but it was still an impressive display and the xG figure was good. Union Berlin had a brilliant season last season and their xG figures actually placed them a little higher in the table so it just shows what an improved side they are. I can’t see them breaking into the Top Six, but they did get very close last season! They played out a pretty boring 1-1 with Bayer Leverkusen on the opening weekend, and to be fair to them that was a reasonable result considering Bayer Leverkusen would be considered much better than them.
Of course, it all comes down to the odds on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and that what makes this game interesting. I know Hoffenheim were very impressive on the opening weekend, but Union Berlin were rock solid and they tend to keep games very tight anyway. I feel Hoffenheim are pretty short here at 2.06 – I can definitely see the game being closer than those odds suggest. Hoffenheim gave away a lot of chances towards the end of last season, and if Union Berlin can keep it tight at the back they will likely get plenty of chances at the other end to win. A union Berlin win is a tempting bet as long shots go, but the Hoffenheim lay is my best bet to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay Hoffenheim to beat Union Berlin at 2.06 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQHofBer
BAYERN MUNICH V KOLN
4.30pm Next we have the German Champions in action as Bayern Munich take on Koln. Bayern may have had to settle for a 1-1 draw on the opening weekend with Gladbach but the game was completely different to the score line! The xG was 3.13 to 2.02 to Bayern at the end of a very entertaining game. Koln were also involved in an entertaining game with a 3-1 win over Hertha Berlin but it was pretty even on xG. Koln conceded an xG of 1.84 which is very like them based on the last few seasons – they tend to play a very open game and that is generally their downfall. It’s a very positive sign that they scored three times but let’s not judge them on one game only – they had to play a relegation playoff last season.
If Koln play their usual game here, Bayern will likely run riot. On paper football fans might be disappointed with their draw last weekend but the underlining numbers say they played superbly. The market is fully expecting a win for Bayern here with them trading 1.16 at the moment so this is a game to look at the side markets. I can’t see Koln changing their tactics here so I’m expecting goals for Bayern. Any Other Home Win (Bayern to score four or more and win) is trading 2.3 in the Correct Score market and that looks good value for a small bet. This is the game that Bayern announce they are back for another title in my view!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.3 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBayKln
ATLETICO MADRID V ELCHE
6.30pm We move to La Liga next as the Champions Atletico Madrid host Elche. Although Atletico started with an excellent win on the opening weekend, and landed a nice bet for us too, they did concede a worrying xG figure. They gave away an xG of 2.17 to Celta Vigo while Elche played out a relatively boring 0-0 with Athletic Bilbao. Elche finished last season very poorly and dropped down to 17th, so while Atletico are fully expected to win this game I was surprised to see them trading 1.23 when I clicked into the market. I feel they will win, but I’d have them a little bigger. Elche will be tough to break down, so we might see Atletico trade bigger in-running – you have to feel that Elche’s best chance of a result is a 0-0.
With that view in mind, I fully expect Elche to be very negative here with their tactics. That makes the goals market very interesting, and I’m a fan of under 2.5 goals here at 1.92. Atletico had to grind out a 1-0 win against Elche towards the end of last season and the xG figures from the game were pretty low too. Elche actually played very well that day and finished with an xG higher than Atletico but Elche will be quite negative here and I’m happy to play unders. I can see a 1-0 or 2-0 Atletico win, perhaps Elche can get to half-time at 0-0 too.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAtlElc
LEVANTE V REAL MADRID
9pm We finished the day in La Liga with Levante against Real Madrid. It was nice to land a very confident bet on Real Madrid on the opening weekend – I was keen to keep stakes reasonably low because it was the first week, but the odds on Real were too tempting to turn down and I feel the same applies here. Real are trading 1.65 and that looks a very good value price to beat this Levante side. Levante are your classic mid-to-low table side in La Liga, however it is worth noting that they have beaten Real in two of the last three meetings. Levante actually beat them 2-1 in January last season in what would have been a big result in the title race at the time.
Although I’m confident on the Real win here, there are reasons to keep stakes lower than last week. Real conceded an xG of 1.47 last weekend against Alaves which is reasonably high; although we all know that they like to play an open game and they did score four times too. Levante had a very even 1-1 draw with Cadiz and they had a reasonably low xG last season with just over one goal per game. Real have questions to answer this season with their new manager but as I said last week, I’m expecting them to come out of the blocks flying. The 1.65 is too big to turn down against an average Levante side.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid to beat Levante at 1.65 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLevRma
