LA LIGA PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s feature Bundesliga and Liga games with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V WOLFSBURG
2.30pm What an interesting day ahead! We start with Dortmund hosting Wolfsburg in what should be a very close game. They started the weekend beside each other in the table, with Wolfsburg two points ahead of Dortmund. Wolfsburg have been unbeaten in the Bundesliga this season apart from a loss to Bayern Munich in which they deserved to lose but still played relatively well. Dortmund have been below their best this season and have had a couple of very surprising results – the 5-1 loss to Stuttgart stands out! They were flattered by xG last year, and perhaps they are reverting to the mean this season.
It’s fair to say that Wolfsburg have been rock solid this season, and I can’t get away from the Dortmund lay at 1.63. That looks very short to me given how the sides have performed this season. The market is expecting goals with over 2.5 goals in the 1.5’s and I feel Wolfsburg can score more than once here. Don’t get wrong, Dortmund are very good side going forward but I feel Wolfsburg can deal with them here. We should have a very good game to watch, and I’m very happy with my Dortmund lay at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Dortmund to beat Wolfsburg at 1.63 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQDorWol
BAYERN MUNICH V MAINZ
5pm You won’t find many shorter sides this weekend than Bayern Munich on Sunday afternoon. At the time of writing they are trading as short as 1.13 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s fair to say anything bar a Bayern win would be a massive shock here, and Mainz have been poor this season too. They started the year second last with only Schalke below them with the pair getting a little detached now. I feel it’s a case of “how many can Bayern score” rather than will they win. They haven’t been at their brilliant best this season and dropped some points, but they should win in style here.
To be fair to Mainz, they have been a little unlucky in certain games. But it’s clear to see looking at their xG figures that their problems are at the back rather than going forward. They are consistently giving away too many chances and if there’s one side you can’t do that against its Bayern. An early goal could see a very embarrassing score line for Mainz and I’m happy to back Any Other Home Win at 2.1 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBayMai
HUESCA V BARCELONA
8pm We finish the weekend in La Liga with Huesca hosting the troubled Barcelona. Huesca sit bottom of La Liga but they have had nine draws in 16 games. They’ve only managed one win and although they are bottom – I don’t feel they are as bad as their position points out. Put this way, if you were backing against them you’d be down on the P&L – only winning seven times from 16 bets. We all know that Barcelona have a number of issues this season, and it will be interesting to see what happens with the Messi situation in the transfer window. They dropped more points after Christmas with a 1-1 draw against Eibar who are towards the bottom of the table, although in fairness the xG figures say that they were very unlucky not to win.
Huesca are draw specialists and it’s fair to say that they will approach this game in a cagey fashion. They will know Barcelona have found it difficult to break down sides this season and Messi can’t do everything himself – and you’d have to question how motivated he is at the moment too given he wants to leave. I feel it’s worth backing under 2.5 goals at 2.4 given the make-up of both sides. Barcelona at 1.5 will attract a lot of punters, but they were the same price against Eibar and let their backers down. I can see a low scoring game here and unders should be shorter.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 with BETDAQ Sportsbook.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQHueBar
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