SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between BAYERN MUNICH v HERTHA BERLIN, PSG v LORIENT and REAL VALLADOLID v ATLETICO MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V HERTHA BERLIN
2.30pm We have another brilliant day around Europe on Sunday with action from the Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Whisper it, but there seems to be a title race in Germany this season! Usually Bayern have the title won by now, but Dortmund started this weekend sitting one point ahead of Bayern at the top of the table after Bayern lost to Mainz last weekend. Including the Champions League Quarter-Final against Manchester City, that’s four games without a win in all competitions for Bayern. It hasn’t been an easy start for Thomas Tuchel – the only big success he’s had to far is the 4-2 win over Dortmund in his first game in charge. That was short lived however as Bayern crashed out of the German Cup quickly afterwards. Clearly Bayern haven’t been at their best this season, but it’s hard to see past a comfortable home win here against an average Hertha Berlin side. Bayern won’t have to be at their best to win here – Hertha Berlin sit bottom of the Bundesliga, and they have been woeful away from home this season too. They’ve only managed five points away from home all season – the worst record in the Bundesliga.
Bayern come into the game trading as short as 1.14 at the time of writing, which is the shortest price from Europe’s major leagues this weekend! With Bayern trading so short in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value here. This is all about how many goals Bayern can score rather than will they win in my opinion. The biggest question here is the angle between Bayern not being at their best going forward, but Hertha Berlin also conceding so many goals this season. They are conceding an average of two goals per game this season – their xG is only 1.5 so they have been a little unlucky in this area, but they are still conceding sloppy goals. Bayern have been conceding sloppy goals too this season, and I feel Hertha Berlin can get on the score sheet at some stage. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.11 and I feel this is worth a small bet – I can see Bayern running out easy winners, and probably leaving gaps at the back when they are three or four goals up. Hertha have managed to score in five of their last six, and they can find a goal here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.11 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayHer
PSG V LORIENT
4pm Next we move to Ligue 1 as PSG host Lorient. As is always the way in Paris, most of the drama is off the field rather than on it with PSG. They started the weekend sitting eight points ahead of Marseille, the title is pretty close to being won now, but all the talk is dressing room issues. I suppose with so many stars and egos in the camp, this is always going to be a problem! It seems, at the moment anyway, that Messi will be leaving Paris in the summer. On the face of it, he hasn’t really been a success at PSG – you wouldn’t say he has transformed the team or improved their Champions League performance. PSG will always be judged on their performance in the Champions League rather than winning Ligue 1. The issue has been what has been behind the famous top three – they were fully exposed as having a weak midfield behind the top three there. Even in Ligue 1, they haven’t exactly been very impressive. They lost recently to Rennes and Lyon – both times with home advantage too, and they haven’t exactly been creating chances for fun either. Their last five xG figures have been 1.38, 1.20, 1.22, 1.05 and 1.34. They actually conceded a higher xG figure than they created in their last three wins, so their run of form could actually be worse. They will win the title, but something is clearly amiss.
Although they haven’t been playing at the best recently, they don’t need to be at their best to beat mid-table side Lorient. They are conceding an average xG figure of 1.5 this season and only creating an average of 1.1. I wouldn’t say that they have been very poor away from home though – their position in the table doesn’t change there. PSG come into the game trading very short favourites at 1.2, and it would take a brave punter to trust them at those odds in my opinion. With PSG creating so little in front of goal, I was very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.3 when I clicked into the market. I’m going to keep stakes small here because it is a risky bet, but Under 2.5 goals looks nice value at 3.95. Lorient are clearly struggling in front of goal this season so they will approach this game for a draw, and PSG aren’t creating high quality chances. PSG are involved in high scoring Ligue 1 games though, so one point feels the right stake here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 3.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgLor
REAL VALLADOLID V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Real Valladolid host Atletico Madrid. Both sides were in action midweek with different fortunes. Unfortunately for Real Valladolid, they lost a huge relegation battle with Valencia – they couldn’t have asked for a better start too as they took an early lead, but Valencia came back and scored the winner in stoppage time. A hammer blow, and now Real Valladolid look to be back in the relegation mix. After back-to-back wins it looked like they were moved away from the relegation battle, but Almeria and Valencia both won midweek and now there is only four points between Real Valladolid and the relegation zone. There’s plenty of fixtures left of course, but they have to play Atletico Madrid here and Barcelona – they also have a lot of massive relegation battles against the likes of Cadiz, Almeria and Getafe – those games could go both ways obviously given the pressure! Big six point games where wins does damage to the other side as well. Nevertheless, they have their hands full against an Atletico Madrid side in superb form. There’s actually a chance now that Atletico catch Real Madrid and go past them given Real are going to focus on the Champions League Semi-Final.
Atletico Madrid notched up another win midweek against Mallorca, and they finished the game with another impressive xG figure at 2.57. That’s seven wins from eight games, their only loss coming away to Barcelona, and if you go back further they have won nine of their last eleven, against dropping points away to Real Madrid with a draw. It’s been quite the change in form since they started the season slowly – continue like this and they might even be in the title race next season. I have to say the 1.69 on Atletico Madrid jumps off the page here, and the only question for me is the staking. They have been in superb form lately, and they are creating a host of chances. Their average xG is creeping up towards 2.0, currently sitting at 1.8, and they are conceding less than one goal per game too. Real Valladolid have had issues at both ends of the pitch – their average xG conceded is a very high 2.1 and they are scoring less than one goal per game. I can’t see past the Atletico win here and the 1.69 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Atletico Madrid to beat Real Valladolid at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaAtm
