SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v REAL SOCIEDAD, BAYERN MUNICH v FREIBURG and GRANADA v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL SOCIEDAD
3.15pm What a Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have some top class action from La Liga and the Bundesliga with Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona all in action. It’s definitely a day to enjoy, especially because it’s our last football before we head into the next International break! We start the day in La Liga with a cracker as Atletico Madrid host Real Sociedad. Both sides have had positive starts to the season – they are off the pace of Real Madrid and Barcelona at the top of the table, but they started the weekend sitting in fourth and fifth with just one point between them. You’d expect Girona to drop out of the European spots as the season goes on, and with Sevilla starting the season slowly again you’d have to fancy Real Sociedad to hold onto their spot in the top four. Back-to-back top fours and thus Champions League football would be a huge boost for the club bringing in more money and better quality players; they could actually build a gap to the others with that if they get things right behind the scenes. This should be a fascinating game though, and it will give us an idea where the teams stand this season.
Atletico Madrid come into the game as the favourites; they are trading slightly odds on at the time of writing. The home win is 1.96 with Real Sociedad at 4.7 and the draw is 3.5. Looking at the under-lining numbers from both sides you would say that Real Sociedad have been lucky to get the points they have this season. Their average xG created is only 1.06 which is the fourth lowest figure in La Liga prior to the weekend fixtures. I wouldn’t say that Atletico are playing superb football, but they are playing at a much better level than that. Add to that as well that they managed to beat Real Madrid at home recently too. They have had two wild 3-2 wins here in the last two games, in La Liga and then the Champions League midweek, and the 1.96 is big enough to tempt me in here. Real Sociedad’s average xG created away from home this season is only 0.84, and Atletico can grind out a win here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid to beat Real Sociedad at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlSci
BAYERN MUNICH V FREIBURG
4.30pm We move to the Bundesliga next as Bayern Munich host Freiburg. Although Freiburg finished a rock solid fifth last season, it’s a sign of the gulf in class between Bayern Munich and the rest that Bayern are trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing! That’s one of the shortest prices around the major leagues in Europe this weekend, and it’s not like it’s a game against a side in a relegation battle! Fair to say the market can’t see past a comfortable home win here. Bayern have drawn two of their last three Bundesliga games, so they actually come into this weekend not sitting top of the table! Those draws came against Bayer Leverkusen, who started the weekend top and RB Leipzig – so nothing to worry about really from a Bayern point of view. The big surprise this season has actually been Stuttgart! They started the weekend one point ahead of Bayern Munich – last season they finished in the relegation playoff spot! Freiburg were in action on Thursday night in the Europa League against West Ham, while Bayern made hard work of their midweek win in the Champions League. We should have an entertaining game here with plenty of chances.
Freiburg have been playing a very open game this season. Their average xG created is 1.42 and their average conceded is 1.5. While 1.5 isn’t an exceptionally high figure, it is high when you consider you’re coming to Bayern Munich away. Bayern’s average xG created is a whopping 2.44 and they are also the only side in the Bundesliga with an average conceded of under 1.0. The stats scream a very high scoring game here, and the market is expecting one too – Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.3! In fairness, Over 2.5 goals has won in 70% of the meetings between the sides. Both Teams To Score is an interesting price at 1.89 however; Freiburg won’t sit back and we have had BTTS is 63% of the past meetings. With Bayern so short, that does make the handicap prices short too but I feel Freiburg can score at some stage here so I’m happy with a small bet on BTTS.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BynFre
GRANADA V BARCELONA
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish a wonderful Sunday as Granada host Barcelona. Most football fans will be expecting Barcelona to win here as Granada started the weekend sitting in the relegation zone. They have only managed five points from their eight games, and while their performance levels haven’t been too bad they are conceding more chances than they are creating at the moment. That’s to be expected really given their position in the table. Barcelona are at the opposite end, and they are creating an average xG of 1.99 this season which is obviously very impressive. Not as good as Real Madrid’s 2.17 but still very good! Barcelona are the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.47 with Granada 7.6 and the draw is 5.3. Away from home, Barcelona have still be creating a lot of chances too; they average xG created is 1.78 away from home and they have actually been more solid away from home too. They are conceding less chances away from home compared to at home!
Barcelona have a good record against Granada; they’ve won 14 of the 19 matches but we tend to see a reasonably tight game. Only 58% of meetings have had Over 2.5 goals, but in 2021 here we had a crazy game that Barcelona won 5-3! Last season, Granada managed to get two 1-1 draws and that was pretty decent considering Barcelona ran away with the title. Barcelona were unlucky not to win their home game, but Granada actually finished with a marginally higher xG figure when they had home advantage. While I feel Barcelona will win, it’s hard to make a massive case that they should be massively shorter than their current 1.47. Over 2.5 goals is four ticks bigger at 1.51, but I prefer Both Teams To Score here at 1.74. Granada have been creating a reasonable amount this season, and we have seen Barcelona concede some sloppy goals. I feel this is a game for small stakes, and BTTS looks a nice option at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GrnBar
