SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s action with recommended BETDAQ bets starting with EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V DORTMUND at 2.30pm.
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V DORTMUND
2.30pm We have another fantastic Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! There’s two blockbuster fixtures from Serie A later in the day, but we start the action in the Bundesliga as Eintracht Frankfurt host Dortmund. This should be a cracker, and Dortmund will be buzzing after a massive win away to Newcastle in the Champions League midweek. That Group is hugely open now, and Dortmund are just two points behind PSG at the top of the table so everything is to play for. Dortmund are in a decent position in the Bundesliga too – they start the weekend two points behind Bayer Leverkusen at the top of the table. To be honest, and I said this midweek too, they will actually be gutted to be two points behind because their two draws have come against Bochum and Heidenheim – two sides that will be in the relegation battle this season! Eintracht Frankfurt are having a solid season so far, they start the weekend sitting in seventh which is where they finished last season. However, there are some major red flags for Frankfurt when you look at the under-lining numbers.
Frankfurt currently have the worst attacking record in the Bundesliga. Their average xG created is only 0.95 – they are one of only two sides with an average xG of under 1.0. They have been keeping things reasonably tight at the back and that is what is saving them at the moment. If they want to hold onto their spot in Europe, they simply have to start creating more chances. Dortmund come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. The away win is trading 2.24, Eintracht Frankfurt are 3.4 and the draw is 3.8. Dortmund have been much better than Frankfurt going forward this season, and I would have them a little shorter than 2.24. My main worry about Dortmund is that they have been conceding plenty of chances away from home, but they could easily get away with that here against a very limited attacking side. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but Dortmund at 2.24 looks a nice position to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Dortmund to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FraDrt
INTER MILAN V ROMA
5pm Next we move over to Serie A for the first of two fantastic fixtures! It’s a massive evening in Italy Inter Milan host Roma, while Napoli will host AC Milan later on. The top of the table could look very different after this weekend! Inter Milan sit top at the start of the weekend, but only by one point ahead of AC Milan. Roma had a very slow start to the season, and even spent time in the relegation zone but they have jumped up the table now. They start the weekend in seventh, and they’ll be hoping to move into the European spots soon. It’s hard to see them breaking into the top four – in fairness they had a superb chance last season and finished the season very poorly with all their focus on the Europa League which they lost on penalties in the Final. While Napoli have dropped plenty of points already this season, they are the best performing side in Serie A. Inter Milan are second on chances created – their average xG created is a high 1.83, and they have been very good at the back too. Their average xG conceded is only 1.01 – it will be very interesting to see how this game plays out because there’s only one side with a better record at the back this season, and that’s Jose Mourinho’s Roma!
Roma haven’t been as good as Inter going forward, their average xG created is 1.51 which is still top four on performance level, but obviously not as good as Inter. I have to say I was very surprised when I clicked into the market and saw the odds here. Inter are trading odds on at 1.64 with Roma 6.0 and the draw is 4.2. I know Roma have had plenty of setbacks at the start of the season, and they have also got themselves into some tricky situations. Jose Mourinho even got sent off recently! However, the 1.64 on Inter is just too short in my opinion. As I highlighted above, Roma have been rock solid at the back and I see a much closer game here than the odds suggest. I fully accept Inter have been a better side, but 1.64 is at least ten ticks too short in my opinion and I’m very happy with the Inter lay. It would be a surprise if Jose Mourinho didn’t park the bus to be honest; a fascinating game awaits.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat Roma at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ItrRom
NAPOLI V AC MILAN
7.45pm We have another blockbuster to finish the day in Serie A as Napoli host AC Milan. I mentioned above that Napoli have dropped plenty of points already this season – they start the weekend five points behind league leaders Inter Milan. They are still playing superb football however; their average xG created is 1.99 which is the best figure in Serie A this season. They are only conceding an average of 1.08 too which is very good and only 0.07 behind Inter Milan. Their difference in chances created compared to conceded is +0.91 which is the best record in Serie A. A lot of football fans, myself included to be honest, might have questioned their hunger this season after lifting the title last season after having to wait so long – however their performance levels are still exceptional. They just haven’t got the results and that’s variance over the course of the season. Five points is a decent gap, but that could easily change if Roma got a result at Inter and Napoli win here – I would suggest Napoli will still be heavily involved in the title race. AC Milan start this weekend four points ahead of Napoli, just one behind Inter Milan but their performance levels have been poor compared to Napoli.
AC Milan have only been creating an average xG of 1.27 which is mid-table form. They are conceding close to that figure too, which means the difference in their chances created v their chances conceded is only +0.07. Football doesn’t always work out the way the stats and facts point, but you’d have to say everything points to a Napoli win here. I was very surprised to see Napoli trading as big as 2.3 when I clicked into the market; AC Milan are 3.45 and the draw is 3.55. I feel the 2.3 is exceptional value; I can see why plenty of punters want to be against Napoli given their results this season but they are still playing superb football. AC Milan have been pretty average away from home too while Napoli are creating an average xG of 2.16 at home which is a very high figure. Personally I would have Napoli odds on here, and the 2.3 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion. I feel we’re getting a lot of value here! You’d have to expect a reasonably cagey classic Serie A big game, but Napoli will create chances at some stage, and hopefully they can take them.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Napoli to beat AC Milan at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapMil
