SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews a fantastic Sunday in the Premier League with the headline act MAN U v MAN CITY at 3.30pm. All games previews with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V EVERTON
1pm We have a blockbuster Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! All eyes will be on the Manchester Derby later as the highlight of the day, but we have four other games to go through before we get there. We start the day with West Ham hosting Everton, at the earlier than usual kick off time at 1pm. This game has been moved forward for Sky Sports because the Manchester Derby kicks off at the unusual TV slot of 3-30pm. Manchester United issued a statement saying the clubs, broadcaster and local authorities had all come together to agree the time. This is the only game where we don’t have an odds on favourite today, so even though West Ham are clear favourites at 2.2 it is still the most open market of the day; Everton are trading 3.55 and the draw is 3.7. West Ham had a setback midweek in the Europa League with a loss away to Olympiacos after winning their first two games. They will still very likely go through with Freiburg, and after beating them away from home they’ll probably still top the group too.
Although West Ham sit comfortably in mid-table, there have been worries this season. Their average xG conceded is an exceptionally high 1.91 and that’s a major worry. Only Sheffield United are conceding more chances than the Hammers this season; as I have said for the past few weeks, eventually sides will start taking their chances against them. If you look at the gap between chances created and conceded; West Ham have the fifth worst record in the Premier League this season; the four clubs worse are Sheffield United, Burnley, Bournemouth and Luton Town – all the clubs in the relegation battle! West Ham are too good to go down, but they need to start playing better. Everton were a side thought to be heavily included in the relegation battle this season, but they are creating a lot of chances – their average xG created is a high 1.61. With West Ham conceding so many chances, I would have them bigger than 2.2 here and from a value point of view I’m happy with the home lay. Not going crazy with stakes here because Everton are still an average side, but this game should be closer than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Everton at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuEvr
ASTON VILLA V LUTON TOWN
2pm We have three games kicking off at 2pm, and we start with Aston Villa hosting Luton Town. We have two very short odds favourites in the Premier League for Super Sunday, and Aston Villa are one of them here at 1.29. That’s only one tick bigger than the shortest price of the day as Liverpool are at home to Nottingham Forest too. To be honest, Luton Town haven’t looked up to Premier League standard so far this season, and although they started the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three they are still long odds on to go back down this season. Their stats don’t make for pretty reading; they are struggling to create chances with an average xG of just 1.11 and they are conceding plenty of chances with an average xG conceded of 1.75. That’s a difference of -0.64 which is the fourth worst record in the Premier League. Maybe Burnley and Bournemouth – who both have worse records than Luton – can take up the two relegation spots along with Sheffield United but that seem to be the only outcome that will save Luton this season. Aston Villa are in a completely different place; they are pushing for a European spot again. They actually weren’t too far away from a relegation battle under Steven Gerrard, but they have been transformed under Unai Emery.
Villa started the weekend sitting in the top five, and their stats are good too. I would almost say that it would be a surprise if they didn’t get a European spot this season. Manchester United and Chelsea have been so poor too that Villa could actually move up to the Europa League rather than the Europa Conference League. They were in action there on Thursday night, and won 4-1 to move into a decent position with two wins from three games. With Villa in such good form and playing excellent football, I feel this is a case of how many goals rather than will they win. The 1.29 is a nice option for any Acca this weekend, but I like them to cover the 1.5 goal handicap at 1.8. I was expecting to see this trading shorter given how good Villa have been going forward this season, and at the odds it’s worth a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa -1.5 goals to beat Luton Town at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstLut
BRIGHTON V FULHAM
2pm Next we have Brighton hosting Fulham, and I’m sure Brighton will be a very popular bet this weekend. The home win is currently trading 1.59 with Fulham 5.9 and the draw is 4.8. Brighton have been the most improved side in the Premier League is recent years; don’t forget they were in a relegation battle in 2020/21 for a large part of the season! We all knew they were always playing good football because of their xG figures, but they were failing to take their chances. That has changed now, and they are finally getting the rewards they deserve. They got their first win in Europe on Thursday night here against Ajax, but after a tricky fixture list they need a win in the Premier League – they are without a win in three, but had to play Manchester City and Liverpool. Before that they also got hammered 6-1 by Aston Villa! Most Brighton games scream goals, and Fulham will give them a host of chances here too. Over 2.5 goals is trading without three ticks of the Brighton price at 1.56, and I feel the most difficult question about this game is whether to go with Brighton at 1.59 or Overs at 1.56.
I’m going to opt for Brighton at 1.59, and I feel we’re getting a very good value bet here. It’s worth a Max Bet in my opinion. Fulham have been struggling at both ends of the pitch this season – they were a popular dark horse at the start of the season to be involved in the relegation battle and you have to give them massive credit for grinding out so many results. However, their stats make for poor reading. They are conceding an average xG of 1.51 which is quite high, but their main issues this season have been going forward. Their average xG created is just 0.96 – they are one of only three sides creating an average of under 1.0. The other two are Sheffield United and Burnley; both in the relegation battle. Brighton concede chances, but they might get away with that here against a limited Fulham side, and with an average xG created is 1.72 they can blow Fulham away. The 1.59 is a very confident bet for me.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Brighton to beat Fulham at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriFlm
LIVERPOOL V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
2pm We finish the 2pm games with Liverpool hosting Nottingham Forest. We have the shortest price of the day here with Liverpool trading as short as 1.28 at the time of writing. If you fancy a shock then Nottingham Forest are 11.5 with the draw trading 7.0. Forest will be pleased with their start to the season; they have ten points from nine games and they have shown enough to suggest that they can stay out of the relegation battle. Their performance level isn’t even close to Liverpool though, and this should be a routine win. Forest are only creating an average xG of 1.13 this season so they shouldn’t cause Liverpool many issues at the back. As we all know, Liverpool do still have issues conceding sloppy goals but they have been fantastic going forward. They hammered Toulouse here midweek in the Europa League 5-1 but they did concede again which obviously does make the goal and handicap markets interesting here.
With Liverpool trading so short in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. I would 100% recommend Liverpool at 1.28 for any Acca this weekend, however there’s no prizes for tipping odds that short! Liverpool have been impressive going forward this season; their average xG is 1.71 but you also feel that they could get that higher. I wouldn’t be surprised if that figure started to increase up towards 1.9 like Manchester City. Obviously they are conceding more than all the other top teams, but that’s just Liverpool really – Klopp hasn’t managed to fix that issue and it’s been going on for a while now. Both Teams To Score is trading odds on at 1.88, but the Forest figures don’t support that bet. Over 2.5 goals is short at 1.44, and the bet that stands out here is Liverpool to cover the 1.5 goal Handicap at 1.77. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Forest score at some point, I also expect to see three or more Liverpool goals and I prefer the Handicap option over everything else on offer.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivNtt
MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY
3.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend as we have the Manchester Derby! As I said above, this fixture has been brought forward with the clubs, broadcaster and local authorities all coming together to agree the time. It’s only an hour so it won’t make much difference to TV viewers! Every Manchester Derby brings its own slice of drama, and the narrative this season is how poor Manchester United have been. They have been winning games recently, but they had an easy fixture list on paper and they have been making very hard work of winning too. They needed two injury time goals to beat Sheffield United here and they are the worst side in the Premier League this season. They got beaten by Galatasaray in the Champions League here, and then were so poor against Copenhagen midweek. You’d have to worry about this United side coming up against the best team in Europe now. I know City have injuries, but this could easily be another very embarrassing defeat for United. The only positive thing you’d say is that United have the talent in the squad should the players turn up, and usually they do turn up in the big games. They just haven’t been good enough this season.
We’ve watched this United squad throw plenty of managers under the bus in recent years, and early this season it felt like they were doing the same. In fairness, they have fought hard in recent weeks – late wins are always good for morale too. Manchester City have had a few setbacks lately; a shock loss against Wolves and a loss away to Arsenal has opened up the title race for the time being. However, it’s hard to fault them looking at the stats – an average xG of 1.90 and one of only two sides conceding an average xG of under 1.0. They are rock solid, and you can see why they are trading odds on to win. City are 1.71 with United 5.3 and the draw is 4.1. It’s going to be very hard to find a better bet here than the City win at 1.71, however Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals are trading within eight ticks if you fancy goals over the City win. United are conceding a pretty high average xG of 1.44 this season which is basically midtable form. As I said above, they just haven’t been good enough and have laboured against weaker sides. I think they get exposed here and City will hammer them. I’d be tempted by some fancy Handicap prices, but the 1.71 is big enough to have a Max Bet on. I can only see one winner here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunMnc