SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between ROMA v LECCE, FIORENTINA v JUVENTUS and REAL MADRID v RAYO VALLECANO all with recommended BETDAQ bets.
ROMA V LECCE
5pm We have another fascinating day around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Sunday with focus on Serie A and La Liga. Roma, Juventus and Real Madrid are all in action, and we kick the day off in Serie A as Roma host Lecce. Roma are definitely on the backfoot this season in Serie A; after a poor start to the season and a loss last weekend to Inter Milan they started this weekend down in ninth. At one stage last season it looked like they would/could finish top four but a poor finish and focus on the Europa League meant to dropped down to sixth. At things stand, they might not even finish there this season. They have been very solid at the back stats wise, but they have conceded so many sloppy goals at the start of the season. Their average xG conceded is only 1.07, which is the second best figure in Serie A this season but they’ve conceded 13 goals in their ten games. I think the main issue with that too has been that they aren’t creating enough to counter the mistakes at the back – their average xG created is only 1.37 which is pretty much a mid-table figure and reflective of where they currently are in the table.
You also have all the issues with Jose Mourinho and the contract renewal too which can’t help things at the moment. It’s all just rumours at the moment, but I believe the latest one is he’s getting some mega offer from Saudi Arabia – in fairness, who isn’t getting a mega offer from there at the moment! Nevertheless, this is a game that Roma have to win, just to steady the ship and on paper this is a game they should win too. Lecce were only five points away from the relegation zone last season, and they are conceding more chances than they are creating this season too. They should finish around 13th this season if they keep this level, but you’d have to fancy Roma to get the job done here. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.6 with Lecce 7.0 and the draw is 3.95. Lecce managed to get a 1-1 draw when they had home advantage last season, but Roma have won the five times they have had home advantage. I was tempted by Both Teams Not To Score at 1.74 because of the Roma xG figures at the back, but I prefer the 1.6 on Roma just because they have let in so many sloppy goals this season. Keeping stakes reasonably limited here, but Roma get the job done.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Roma to beat Lecce at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomLec
FIORENTINA V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We stay in Serie A next for a cracker as Fiorentina host Juventus. We have a very open market here with Juventus favourites at 2.66, Fiorentina 3.05 and the draw is 3.3. Juventus have had a lot of issues over the last few seasons, but for the time being anyway, they are very much in the title race this season. It’s a nice place for them to be, especially after missing out on Champions League football this season after their ten point deduction last season. While Juventus haven’t been blowing sides away, they are grinding out a lot of results. Their average xG created is 1.56, which was the fourth best attacking figure heading into this weekend in Serie A. They have been rock solid at the back too; they have the third best defensive figure and all that combines to just put Juventus in a very strong position this season. Only Inter Milan and Napoli are playing better football. Fiorentina are playing solid football – their xG performance level is +0.15 so they are creating more than they are conceding, however not by a lot. They finished just outside the European spots last season so obviously that is a massive motivation to break into those spots this season, but I would suggest that if they hold this performance level all season they’ll probably finish in eighth again unfortunately!
You would have to say that Juventus are in a great position coming into this game. However, their away under-lining numbers have to be a major worry. They are creating much less away from home; at home they have an average xG of 1.80, away from home that drops to 1.31. Compare this to Fiorentina too; at home their average xG is 1.66 and that drops to 1.22 at home. Possibly more important is that Fiorentina have an average xG conceded of under 1.0 at home too. Fiorentina are basically rock solid at home, and Juventus struggle to create chances. You can see why we have such an open market. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because I really like Under 2.5 goals here at 1.83. I’m expecting a classic cagey Serie A fixture between two very solid sides, and all the figures point to Unders being very good value here. I actually wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the game finish 0-0, and you should be able to get 11.0 or bigger on that in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioJvn
REAL MADRID V RAYO VALLECANO
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the weekend as Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano. Real Madrid fans will still be buzzing after winning El Clasico last weekend. Jude Bellingham has fast become an absolute star and he’s nearly already a cult hero! An injury time winner away to Barcelona only adds to that, and he’s been so impressive this season there’s almost no words to describe him. That win left Real Madrid sitting top of the La Liga table at the start of this weekend, level on points with Girona who have been a complete surprise package this season! We should see plenty of action at both ends of the pitch, and plenty of goals – Real Madrid have the best attacking xG figure in La Liga this season with an average created of 2.06. Rayo Vallecano are actually inside the top four on attacking figures this season – their average xG created is 1.57 which is pretty decent. They are also conceding that figure too, and that’s a very high xG conceded figure! It does make for an entertaining game watching Rayo Vallecano though, and if they aren’t going to sit back here then we could see plenty of fireworks.
The market is expecting a comfortable Real Madrid win here, despite Rayo Vallecano creating a lot going forward. The home win is trading as short as 1.3 at the time of writing with Rayo Vallecano 11.5 and the draw is 6.4. That 1.3 feels a little short, even if it’s hard to see past the Real Madrid win here. It’s not a price I would be rushing to include in any weekend Acca this week. With Real so short in the match odds market, attention obviously goes to the goal and handicap markets. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.58, especially so given the way Rayo Vallecano have played such an open game. Both Teams To Score is also a tempting bet at odds against at 2.04 but I really like the Over 2.5 goals option at the odds. Overs had landed in three of the last four meetings between the sides, and I expect a very end-to-end and entertaining game here. The 1.58 is a very confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaRay
