SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between ATALANTA v INTER MILAN, DORTMUND v BAYERN MUNICH and REAL SOCIEDAD v BARCELONA all with recommended BETDAQ bets.
ATALANTA V INTER MILAN
5pm We have a top class Saturday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this weekend with three superb fixtures from Serie A, the Bundesliga and La Liga. All eyes will be on Der Klassiker between Dortmund and Bayern Munich, but we kick off the action in Serie A as Atalanta host Inter Milan. This is another cracking fixture from Serie A where we had some blockbusters last weekend. Inter Milan edged past Roma with a 1-0 win to stay at the top of the table, while Juventus moved into second with AC Milan drawing at Napoli. This is another difficult fixture for Inter – although Atalanta are six points behind Inter they aren’t too far behind on performance levels. Most Serie A fans will know this by now but Atalanta have generally created some excellent xG figures over the last few years but they have always struggled to convert their chances. Again this season, they are in the top three for chances created only behind Napoli and Inter Milan but you’d be called mad to suggest that they are even close to being in the title race.
This will be a difficult fixture for Inter, and while they come into the game as the favourites they aren’t trading odds on. They are 2.22 at the time of writing with Atalanta 3.45 and the draw is 3.6. Inters away performances have been very impressive this season; they have been rock solid at the back and their average xG conceded is under 1.0. They are actually the only side in Serie A this season to have an overall average xG conceded of under 1.0. Atalanta have been solid at the back too; their average xG conceded is only 1.15 which is a very good figure in a major European league. This game absolutely screams Under 2.5 goals to me, and I’m very surprised to see it trading odds against at 2.09. I know two of the last three meetings have ended with a 3-2 win to Inter Milan, but only 45% of the meetings between these sides have had Over 2.5 goals. We do of course have the odd thriller, but generally we get a very cagey affair without many chances. I know there’s a lot of attacking talent, but we have two of the best defences in Italy here and I’d have Under 2.5 goals odds on.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.09 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlInt
DORTMUND V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm Next we move over to the Bundesliga for the biggest fixture of them all in Germany! Dortmund host Bayern Munich for the latest Der Klassiker. This is always a huge fixture, but we’ve definitely had more spice in recent seasons with Dortmund taking the title race all the way to the final day last season – and should have won it too. All they had to do was win at home against Mainz; they probably still have nightmares about it. It’s salt in wounds too that Mainz actually sit bottom of the table this season too! Bayern absolutely hammered Darmstadt 8-0 last weekend with Harry Kane scoring from his own half of the pitch too; however Bayern have dropped a few points this season and they are still two points behind Bayer Leverkusen at the start of the weekend. Dortmund are a further two points behind Bayern Munich, and a win for the home side here would really put them slap-bang in the title race again this season. As ever, there’s a lot at stake! Bayern Munich come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.8 with Dortmund 4.3 and the draw is 4.5. Dortmund will be pleased to have home advantage, as their performance level has been much stronger at home this season. Although they did beat Newcastle away from home in the Champions League recently.
When you look at the under-lining numbers, Bayern Munich are always going to stand out. Their average xG created is a league high of 2.42 – one of the best figures in the major leagues in Europe. They are also conceding the least chances in Germany too; the only side with an average xG of under 1.0. There’s no getting away from the fact that they are miles clear of everyone else in the Bundesliga, but they have also made hard work of winning the title last season and they aren’t top this season. Dortmund can take faith in that; plus their own figures aren’t bad – they just aren’t as good as Bayern’s! At home, Dortmund’s average xG created is a high 1.77 and their average conceded is 1.11 – impressive stats. They might be able to make the game closer than odds of 1.8 suggest here, but this game absolutely screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.4, the market expects goals too! I like Over 3.5 goals at 1.95 though – we’ve had Over 3.5 collect in the last eight meetings which is an incredible record really. The sides can make it nine here though!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DrtBay
REAL SOCIEDAD V BARCELONA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish a brilliant Saturday as Real Sociedad host Barcelona. This should be an interesting game – both sides are sitting beside each other in the table at the start of the weekend with Barcelona in fourth and Real Sociedad in fifth. Barcelona will be hoping to bounce back from losing El Clasico to Jude Bellingham, sorry Real Madrid, last weekend! Real Sociedad haven’t played fantastic football this season but they still have a good chance of staying within the top four – they basically need Girona to start dropping points soon though. They have been the complete surprise package of La Liga this season – they have the same amount of points as Real Madrid, and they are currently eight points ahead of Real Sociedad too. You could say as well that Girona are actually playing better football than Real Sociedad, so they fully deserve to be ahead of them in the top four. Sevilla are having another very average season, so they’ll miss out on the top four again this season. We should have a competitive affair, but I was surprised to see Barcelona trading as high as 2.26 when I clicked into the market, Real Sociedad are 3.5 and the draw is 3.6.
I know Real Sociedad have been grinding out results and that is to their massive credit, however their under-lining numbers are very poor. Their average xG created is only 1.13 which is close to relegation level stuff, and they are conceding more chances at 1.38 too. Their xG performance level is -0.25; compare this to Barcelona who are creating an average xG of 1.86 and their performance level is +0.69. At home Real Sociedad have been marginally better, but they are still conceding more than they create which has to be a major worry. So far, they have got away with it but against a top class side in Barcelona I can only see one result here. Barcelona are actually conceding less chances away from home too – their average xG conceded away is only 1.06. I’m very surprised to see Barcelona trading as high as 2.26, and I would actually have them odds on. I know Sociedad beat them 2-1 in May, but Barcelona generally do well against Sociedad – they had won all five meetings previously. I feel we’re getting so much value at 2.26 that Barca are worth a Max Bet here. They look the best bet of the weekend in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Barcelona to beat Real Sociedad at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocBrc