SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews SEVILLA v ATLETICO MADRID, AC MILAN v NAPOLI and BARCELONA v GRANADA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SEVILLA V ATLETICO MADRID
5.30pm We have another cracking Sunday in Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! AC Milan v Napoli will be the highlight from Serie A, but we have some great action either side of that game from La Liga. We kick off the day in La Liga with Sevilla hosting Atletico Madrid. This was once a massive top four battle, but things have changed dramatic for Sevilla over the last two seasons. After winning the Europa League last season, I really felt last season was just a small blip but they have been close to a relegation battle again this season! They start this weekend just three points off the bottom three, and they won their last game too. The remarkable thing about Sevilla this season is that they have been playing very good football. Last season they were just terrible at the back. This season they have been one of the most under-performing sides in La Liga. They haven’t been able to take their chances, and they are conceding more goals than they should be too. Their average xG created is 1.66, which is the third best attacking figure in the league – only Real Madrid and Barcelona are creating more! That’s very hard to believe when you look at the table. It also makes Sevilla games very interesting from a betting point of view.
Atletico Madrid come into the game as the favourites, but on under-lining numbers Sevilla have been the better side this season. Of course it’s not just about under-lining numbers; at the end of the day you have to take your chances and be solid at the back. Football is about getting results, and grinding out wins when you aren’t playing well. Atletico have definitely been better than Sevilla when it comes to getting results. Atletico are trading 2.18 with Sevilla 3.7 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. On xG figures, Sevilla have been better going forward and at the back. Atletico have got away with a lot at the back this season I feel, there’s a decent difference between their average xG conceded and their actual goals conceded. I feel the 2.18 is too short on Atletico here; they are conceding more chances than they are creating away from home this season, and they’ve dropped points a lot more away. They’ve actually only dropped points once at home this season. I know Sevilla haven’t been taking their chances, but I still feel the game will be closer than the odds suggest here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Sevilla at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevAtm
AC MILAN V NAPOLI
7.45pm Next we move to Serie A for the highlight of the day as AC Milan host Napoli. This is an intriguing market, and it’s a very similar situation to the above La Liga game in the sense that Napoli are playing very good football but they are really struggling to take their chances and get results. Napoli have an average xG created of 1.85 this season which is remarkably the best attacking figure in Serie A this season – even better than Inter Milan who are running away with the title! Napoli have also been very good at the back; their average xG conceded is only 1.14 which is the third best defensive record too. When you add the two figures together; on paper Napoli are the best side in Serie A this season but they are a whopping 22 points behind Inter heading into this weekend. It’s remarkable that Napoli are starting the weekend down in seventh, not even in the top four. They are only four points behind Atalanta in fourth however, and you’d have to fancy them to claim that fourth spot if they start taking their chances. They simply have to do better in front of goal. With Napoli’s problems in front of goal, AC Milan are the clear favourites here with home advantage.
AC Milan are trading 2.0 with Napoli 4.0 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. While Napoli are the most under-performing side in Serie A this season, AC Milan are the second most over-performing side. They have been exceptional in front of goal – their actual goals scored average is 2.0 compared to their average xG created of just 1.48. That figure isn’t in the top four attacking wise, it’s only fifth, but AC Milan are basically locked into third spot this season and comfortably get a Champions League spot. This is obviously a very interesting market – there’s no doubt that Napoli are the better side on paper but you also have to give AC Milan massive credit – they are getting the job done and winning games. I just can’t help but feel the 2.0 is a little short on AC Milan here – as I said about Napoli; eventually they have to start taking their chances! I’m happy to keep stakes small given they haven’t been getting the results, but I’m happy to support Napoli here and lay AC Milan.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Napoli at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmNpl
BARCELONA V GRANADA
8pm We move back to La Liga to finish Sunday as Barcelona host Granada. We’ve had two very interesting situations above on xG figures versus actual figures, and I suppose Barcelona have the right to feel a little unlucky this season too. Their average xG created of 1.98 is the best attacking figure in La Liga but they are eight points behind Real Madrid. That being said, there’s only 0.01 in the difference between the sides but you can’t help but feel Barcelona should be a little closer. I suppose sloppy at the back is the best way to describe Barcelona this season. They face one of the worst sides in La Liga here however, and they’ll be fully expected to win. The home win is trading as short as 1.23 at the time of writing with Granada 14.0 and the draw is 7.8. Granada are in serious trouble this season, and the writing seems to be on the wall already. They are sitting in second last, eight points off Mallorca in 17th at the start of the weekend – it’s hard to see them bridging that gap to even get back into the mix to stay up. This might be a case of how many goals can Barcelona score rather than will they win.
Granada did manage to hold Barcelona to a 2-2 draw when they had home advantage earlier in the season. That might be something to put punters off Barcelona at 1.23. That was a very lucky result for Granada however; they finished the game with an xG of 0.82 while Barcelona had an xG of 2.54. Granada have one of the lowest average xG created figures in La Liga at 1.08, and away from home that drops to 0.90. That’s a pretty poor figure, and despite Barcelona conceding some sloppy goals this season Both Teams Not To Score look a nice bet at 1.96. I expect Barcelona to dominate possession and Granada are clearly struggling to create chances too. There is a stat that is a big negative for this bet however – both teams have scored in the last five meetings between the sides. Barcelona have actually not won in the last four meetings too which is a surprising stats given the massive gulf in class between the sides. I’m going to keep stakes limited, but I still feel Granada will really struggle to create chances here so I’m happy with the 1.96 on Both Teams Not To Score.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarGra
