SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v FIORENTINA, INTER MILAN v NAPOLI and ATLETICO MADRID v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V FIORENTINA
5pm It’s a Sunday from Europe right out of the top drawer on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have some wonderful games from Serie A and La Liga to enjoy, and we kick off the action in Serie A with Atalanta hosting Fiorentina. With Inter Milan v Napoli and Atletico Madrid v Barcelona later, this is probably third on the list today in terms of pecking order but it is a massive game for both sides in the race for European spots. They have both been on a poor run lately too; Atalanta are without a win in their last four games but they have had a very difficult fixture list in fairness to them – they had to play AC Milan, Inter Milan, Bologna and Juventus. That loss here to Bologna was a huge blow to their top four hopes, and now they start this weekend four points behind Bologna in fourth. Fiorentina have had a tough time lately too – it looked like they might even challenge for a top four spot, even the Europa League at worst but only two wins from their last ten games has put a stop to that. They’ve slipped down to eighth and now after such a strong start they are in danger of missing out on Europa completely.
Atalanta come into the game as the odds on favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading 1.9 with Fiorentina 4.2 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Fiorentina have been a lot better at home compared to away this season, while the same can be said about Atalanta. Home advantage could be a huge factor here, and you can understand why Atalanta are the odds on favourites. Fiorentina are a mid-table side away from home this season – but they are creating more than they are conceding so it’s not like they are playing bad football or anything. Atalanta’s home figures are seriously impressive this season – their home average xG created is 1.87 and their conceded figure is 1.13. Only Inter Milan and Napoli had beaten them here prior to their recently Bologna loss – but Bologna have been fighting for a top four spot too this season. I respect Fiorentina but away from home they are there for the taking. The 1.9 appeals on Atalanta, but this isn’t a game for big stakes and two points feels the correct position.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atalanta to beat Fiorentina at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaFio
INTER MILAN V NAPOLI
7.45pm We stay in Serie A next as Inter Milan host Napoli. This should be an absolute cracker, and while Napoli sit in mid-table we have the best two sides in Italy here. You could write a book on the performance level v results for Napoli this season. It has been remarkable – their average xG created of 1.88 is the best attacking figure in Serie A and their average xG conceded is 1.12 which is the second best defensive figure too. Put those figures together and they should be challenging for the title, maybe even winning back-to-back titles but they sit in seventh – a whopping 31 points behind Inter Milan at the top of the table. That is some difference considering their performance level! Obviously the issue for Napoli this season has been that they haven’t been converting their chances. Their actual goals scored average is 1.54 which has come up in recent weeks as they have started to finally take some chances. They are unbeaten in five Serie A games, and have only lost once in their last nine Serie A. Unfortunately for both sides here they crashed out of the Champions League midweek. Napoli lost to Barcelona, while Inter went out to Atletico Madrid.
That would have definitely hurt Inter considering they took a 1-0 lead into the second leg, but as I highlighted in the first leg that was the time for Inter to strike given Atletico’s issues away from home this season. You always felt a one goal lead wasn’t enough to avoid drama, and sure enough they crashed out on penalties. It’s a massive shame for Inter because they are so far ahead in Serie A they could have easily just focused on the latter stages of the Champions League but here we are. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.66 with Napoli at 5.9 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. I know I’ve said this over the last number of weeks, but at what point do you keep supporting Napoli with their under-lining figures so impressive versus abandoning them because they aren’t taking their chances. That is a tricky question, but I’m happy to stay out the match odds market here. I feel Napoli can score at some stage, and Inter have been so impressive this season, Both Teams To Score is worth backing at 1.83.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntNpo
ATLETICO MADRID V BARCELONA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish a blockbuster Sunday evening as Atletico Madrid host Barcelona. In days gone by this fixture would have a huge impact on the title race, but as things stand Real Madrid have a nice cushion there. Atletico Madrid have had a rollercoaster of a week – their loss against Cadiz last weekend was a massive blow and opened the door for Athletic Bilbao in the top four race. Then came the high though as they beat Inter Milan on penalties in the Champions League on Wednesday night to go through to the Quarter-Finals. It’s fair to say that Atletico haven’t been at their best this season, but they know how to grind out wins in big games. Most of their issues have come away from home this season, so this should be a massive test for Barcelona. Atletico have dropped points eleven times in La Liga this season and ten of those have come away from home. Their only dropped points here this season was a crazy 3-3 draw with Getafe. They have been creating more at home, and they have been a lot more solid at the back – they are only marginally creating more than they are conceding away from home.
Barcelona have been superb this season; they can be disappointed that they started this weekend eight points behind Real Madrid at the top of the table. Obviously their situation isn’t as dramatic as Napoli in Serie A above, but Barcelona have an average xG created of 1.91 this season which is very impressive – and only 0.08 behind Real Madrid. They have conceded more chances though, and a lot of sloppy goals as well. It’s easy to see why we have an open market here; Atletico Madrid are the favourites at 2.5 with Barcelona 2.96 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. I have to say I see a very close game here – Barcelona have played the better football this season but obviously Atletico have been rock solid at home too. I can see why Atletico are the favourites but I would have them a little bigger in the market and the draw a little shorter. I can’t see past a very close game and the draw stands out as the value option at 3.75 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlBrc
