SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews INTER MILAN v LAZIO and ATHLETIC BILBAO v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V LAZIO
5pm It might be the final matchday in the Bundesliga and the Premier League this weekend, but we have plenty of action left on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE from Serie A and La Liga. We have two cracking fixtures to enjoy on Sunday with two very interesting markets too. We kick off the action in Serie A as Inter Milan host Lazio – Inter have been enjoying the last few weeks as they have the title in the bag. Any thoughts of them switching off as the job is done this season went quiet with a 5-0 win against Frosinone last time out – they put in a poor performance prior to that with a 1-0 loss away to Sassuolo. Let’s face it, if they were on the beach early you couldn’t blame them given they have the title won. Lazio have a lot to play for here though – they start the weekend sitting in seventh, and with the top five getting Champions League football now in Italy Lazio still have a good chance of getting into the Europa League. They are one point behind Roma in sixth, but they have no chance of catching the top five. Lazio have been through a lot this season, they’ve had a change in management and now they are finishing the season strongly.
They have played pretty average football this season. Their average xG created has been increasing though – at 1.25 it’s still pretty poor but they have won six of their last eight Serie A games. Inter Milan come into the game trading as the odds on favourites at 1.7 with Lazio 5.2 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Lazio have been conceding a lot of chances away from home this season, their average xG conceded is 1.49 and they are only creating an average of 1.18. You have to give them massive credit for grinding out as many results as possible given that performance level, they actually sit sixth in the away form table. There’s a gulf in class between the sides, but given Inter have the job done this season I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.7 – at the same time that Lazio away performance level doesn’t suggest an Inter lay. I know Inter have nothing to play for, and that is definitely a reason to keep stakes low. Lazio have been able to grind out a lot of results while playing poorly, and the draw is worth a small bet at 4.5 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 4.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntLaz
ATHLETIC BILBAO V SEVILLA
6pm We move over to La Liga to finish the day as Athletic Bilbao host Sevilla. We have two sides here who have had very different seasons – Athletic Bilbao will be absolutely delighted with a fifth place finish and a Copa del Rey win while for Sevilla it’s been another bitterly disappointing season. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out – the under-lining numbers from Sevilla this season have been very different to their results! Their average xG created is 1.5 which is the fifth best attacking figure in La Liga this season, but Sevilla have spent time in the relegation battle again this season – they have got up to mid-table but they won’t get out of jail this season with the Europa League win keeping them in the Champions League this season. It’s a long road back now for Sevilla – less money coming in and no European football won’t be attracting players to the club. Athletic Bilbao actually have a lower average xG created than Sevilla this season, but at home they have been superb in fairness. They haven’t been as good away from home, and that has brought them their average. You could say that they have switched off a little at the end of the season though – they’ve only recorded one win in their last seven La Liga games.
That little run doesn’t inspire confidence given they come into the game as the odds on favourites. Athletic Bilbao are 1.76 with Sevilla 5.3 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Sevilla went through a good run with four wins in five games, but that run came to an end with two losses against Villarreal and Cadiz. Once again, given the situation coming towards the end of the season I’m keen to keep stakes small here – Athletic Bilbao can’t be caught for fifth and Sevilla can’t achieve anything so both sides have nothing to play for here. It gets to the stage where you can’t trust Sevilla to take their chances because it’s been like that all season, however I’m happy to give them a chance here with Bilbao trading as short as 1.76. I feel we’ll see a closer game than those odds suggest, and I’m happy with the Bilbao lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Athletic Bilbao to beat Sevilla at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BilSev
