EUROPA LEAGUE PREVIEW: The Ultra previews OLYMPIAKOS v WEST HAM, BRIGHTON v AJAX and LIVERPOOL v TOULOUSE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
OLYMPIAKOS V WEST HAM
5.45pm The Europa League returns on Thursday night, and as always we have some interesting markets on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have three Premier League clubs in action; West Ham, Brighton and Liverpool – all three are favourites. We start the evening in Group A with West Ham away to Olympiakos. Everything is going great so far for the Hammers; they sit top of the Group with two wins from two games and their win last time against Freiburg away from home was massive. This is a reasonably tricky away game, but from here you’d have to fancy them to top the Group. They are the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on – a West Ham win is 2.24 at the time of writing with Olympiakos at 3.45 and the draw is 3.7. West Ham were hammered 4-1 at the weekend by Aston Villa, but overall they have had a decent start to the season points wise. I say points wise because their performance levels have been worrying; they’ve conceded an average xG of 1.91 which is the second worst figure in the Premier League at the moment.
When you compare the figures to sides around them you are looking at the likes of Sheffield United, Bournemouth and Luton Town – all sides that are involved in the relegation battle! You have to give West Ham some credit though; they have grinded out a lot of excellent results. Their average xG created is only 1.31 which isn’t a high figure either; that would be towards the bottom of mid-table, but we also have to remember there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here. Olympiakos are currently top of the table in Greece, and they have been involved in two very high scoring games in this Group. With West Ham conceding so many chances at the back, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. This game screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals looks exceptional value at 1.81. Olympiakos managed to score twice in both their games in the Europa League, and West Ham will give them chances too. I feel we’re getting so much value here that the 1.81 is worth a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OlyWes
BRIGHTON V AJAX
8pm Next we move to Group B as Brighton host Ajax, and I have to say I was almost shocked when I clicked into this market. Brighton are trading as short as 1.35 at the time of writing – I know they have been playing some fantastic football in the Premier League but that price is probably more of a reflection of what a bad season Ajax are having rather than how strong Brighton are! Ajax are having an absolutely desperate season; they currently sit in the relegation zone in the Eredivisie – they’re in a situation where their fans are rioting at home fans and they’ve had crowd trouble stopping games. It’s been quite the fall from grace since winning four titles in a row between 2018/19 and 2021/22. Erik ten Hag was obviously a big part of that success, and things have basically fallen apart since he left. Despite playing excellent football in the Premier League, Brighton are actually in a poor position in this Group. They are without a win from their opening two games, and they would have been expected to win both too! They went off trading in the 1.2’s in their first game at home to AEK Athens but lost 3-2. On paper, they should have beaten Marseille too but that game finished 2-2 away from home.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Ajax are having so many issues this season. While I wouldn’t be rushing to get on Brighton as short as 1.35, or even include them in any Acca this week, I wouldn’t be keen on laying them either given all the problems at Ajax. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market, and this games absolutely screams goals. The market agrees with that with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.39! The market is expecting a lot of Brighton goals though, and they have been playing such an open game they can easily give away a sloppy goal here. I’m keen to keep stakes small because Ajax are sitting in the relegation zone in the Netherlands but they have scored a decent amount of goals – their issues have been at the back! Both Teams To Score is trading 1.71 and that looks an excellent option.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriAja
LIVERPOOL V TOULOUSE
8pm We finish the night in Group E as Liverpool host Toulouse. When this Group was drawn it was clear Liverpool would top it, and it’s been so far so good for Klopp’s men. They are two from two, and this is actually a top of the table clash with Toulouse sitting in second. It’s a sign of the gulf in class between the sides however that Liverpool come into the game trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing. That’s actually the shortest price in the Europa League this week! Liverpool notched up a win at the weekend as they returned to Premier League action in the Merseyside Derby; winning the Merseyside Derby isn’t as tough as years gone by with Everton being so poor, but Liverpool are in a nice position three points behind Spurs at the moment. They look nailed on for a top four finish even this early in the season with Manchester United and Chelsea being so poor. Toulouse have been well off the pace in Ligue 1 this season; they are currently sitting in tenth with 11 points from their nine games. What’s more worrying than their current position in the table is their under-lining numbers.
Toulouse are only creating an average xG of 1.0 in Ligue 1 this season, which is the fourth worst record in the league. There are trying to keep things reasonably solid at the back, but their average xG conceded is still 1.46. Liverpool are conceding a very similar figure at 1.45, but we all know they like to play a very open game. Their average xG created if 1.71 is the fourth best in the Premier League. The market is expecting goals – Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.39 but it’s mostly Liverpool goals expected. With Toulouse creating so little going forward, I like a small bet on Both Teams Not To Score at 2.02 which is in effect a Liverpool clean sheet. I know Liverpool concede chances so I’m happy to keep stakes small here. Another worry would be Klopp opting to rest players as he tends to do outside the Premier League, but Both Teams Not To Score looks a nice bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivTou
