CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Tuesday’s Champions League games between CLUB BRUGGE v MANCHESTER CITY, PSG v RB LEIPZIG and ATLETICO MADRID v LIVERPOOL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CLUB BRUGGE V MANCHESTER CITY
5.45pm The Champions League returns on Tuesday and we have some cracking fixtures to look forward to on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have an excellent evening of action on Tuesday, and we start with Club Brugge hosting Manchester City. We’re into the section now where sides play home and away against the same side, and these two games are often critical to qualification. I don’t think anyone doubts that City will qualify, but after losing to PSG in Paris they have a little work to do as they sit in third at the moment. The market is fully expecting a smooth win as they are trading 1.28 at the time of writing. I have to say I can’t see past a City win here, obviously I’m going to look around the side markets for some value, but City have been playing incredible football this season and this should be one way traffic.
That being said, Club Brugge have performed well in the Champions League this season and they arrive into this fixture unbeaten! They managed a 1-1 draw with PSG which was a shock to many, and then they beat RB Leipzig 2-1. I feel we shouldn’t read too much into the RB Leipzig result as they have been playing poorly this season – Bayern Munich raided them during the summer and they haven’t been the same side this season. Brugge tend to play a pretty open game because the xG figures suggest their games are very end-to-end. I can’t see that style working against Man City and if they give away an xG of 1.5+ then City are going to cover the handicap here. The 1.78 -1.5 goals looks nice value to start the European action this week!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Club Brugge at 1.78 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCluMci
MATCH STATS
● This is the first ever meeting between Club Brugge and Manchester City in European competition, with the Citizens the 11th different English side that Brugge have faced in Europe.
● In all European competitions, Club Brugge are winless in 12 matches against English opponents (D3 L9) since beating Chelsea 1-0 in the Cup Winners’ Cup in February 1995.
● Manchester City have won five of their six European matches against Belgian opponents, losing the other 2-0 against Standard Liège in November 1978 in the UEFA Cup. Their last match against a side from Belgium came in October 2003 against KSC Lokeren, a 1-0 away win in UEFA Cup with a goal from Nicolas Anelka.
● Club Brugge are unbeaten in their last four group stage games in the UEFA Champions League (W2 D2), picking up eight points in the process – this is their best points haul over a run of four games in the competition in their history. Only once have they gone five consecutive games without defeat in the UEFA Champions League, during a run of six ending in October 2019 (W1 D5).
● Manchester City were beaten by Paris Saint-Germain in their previous UEFA Champions League game, losing 2-0 at the Parc des Princes. As manager Pep Guardiola has only lost consecutive away games in the competition once previously, with those two games coming in the 2014-15 season in charge of Bayern Munich (1-3 v FC Porto and 0-3 v Barcelona).
● Club Brugge are one of only three teams to have named the same starting XI in their two UEFA Champions League games this season (with Sheriff Tiraspol and Ajax), while the Belgian side have also made fewer substitutions than anyone else so far (5).
● Since keeping seven consecutive clean sheets in the UEFA Champions League between October 2020 and March 2021, Manchester City have only kept one in their last seven games in the competition. They’ve conceded at least two goals in each of their last two (3 v RB Leipzig and 2 v PSG), as many times as they had conceded more than once as in their previous 25 Champions League games combined.
● Since the start of last season, Phil Foden has been involved in more goal-ending sequences of play than any other Manchester City player in the UEFA Champions League (10). In this period, the only individuals to have been involved in more in the competition overall are Erling Haaland (13) and Kylian Mbappé (11).
● Hans Vanaken has scored in each of his last four UEFA Champions League appearances for Club Brugge; the longest run of netting in consecutive outings by a Belgian player in the competition’s history.
● Manchester City’s Riyad Mahrez made his UEFA Champions League debut against Club Brugge in September 2016 in an away group match, scoring twice for Leicester City. He also netted once in Leicester’s home group match against them, with three goals his joint-most against an opponent in the competition (also three vs PSG).
PSG V RB LEIPZIG
8pm We have two cracking games at 8pm, the first of which is PSG hosting RB Leipzig. PSG are my most confident bet of the evening at 1.48 here. As I mentioned in the above game, RB Leipzig have been very poor this season. After dropping more points at the weekend in the Bundesliga, they sit down in 8th, already eight points behind the league leaders Bayern Munich. Of course this slump in form is mostly down to Bayern Munich and them being allowed take some star players and their manager during the summer. I’m still not happy that was allowed to happen given how close Leipzig were to challenging for the title, but that’s German football for you. Leipzig just aren’t the same side now, and they are there for the taking.
PSG are obviously head and shoulders above everyone in France, and winning the French league won’t be a challenge for them this season. Their main aim will be the Champions League, and after a poor start against Club Brugge they bounced back with a win over Manchester City – they were lucky looking at the xG figures, but they should have more than enough class to win here. RB Leipzig sit bottom of this Group, have only won three Bundesliga games all season, and even Club Brugge were able to beat them in this competition. They just aren’t performing, and PSG are worth having a confident bet on at 1.48.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win PSG to beat RB Leipzig at 1.48 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQPsgLei
MATCH STATS
● This is a third consecutive UEFA Champions League season to see PSG and RB Leipzig face – in 2019-20, PSG won 3-0 in a single leg semi-final, while both sides won their home games in last season’s group stage (RB Leipzig v PSG 2-1 & PSG v RB Leipzig 1-0).
● RB Leipzig have only faced Zenit St Petersburg (four times) more often than PSG (three times) in European competition, excluding qualifiers. Having met in the UEFA Champions League in 2019-20 and 2020-21, Leipzig are only the second side PSG have faced in three consecutive seasons in the competition, after Chelsea (2013-14 – 2015-16).
● In the UEFA Champions League, German teams have faced PSG away from home on eight occasions and lost seven of those games – however, the exception was in April this year, when Bayern München won 1-0 at the Parc des Princes in the second leg of last season’s quarter-final.
● RB Leipzig have lost four of their five away UEFA Champions League matches since the start of last season (W1), with those five games producing 24 goals at an average of 4.8 per game.
● PSG have only lost one of their last 28 home games in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League (W22 D5), with that defeat coming against Manchester United in October 2020. The French side have netted 2.7 goals per game on average in this run of 28 fixtures.
● RB Leipzig manager Jesse Marsch has taken charge of 14 games in the UEFA Champions League (12 for RB Salzburg and two with his current club), while he is still waiting for his team to keep a clean sheet in the competition. The American has taken charge of more games with his team conceding in 100% of them than any other manager in the history of the competition (14/14).
● Lionel Messi has been directly involved in five goals in six UEFA Champions League appearances at the Parc des Princes (four goals and one assist), including scoring once in his first game in the competition there as a PSG player (v Manchester City). The only previous players to score in their first two home games for PSG in the UEFA Champions League are Neymar (2017), Alex (2012) and George Weah (1994).
● RB Leipzig’s Christopher Nkunku has netted four goals in two UEFA Champions League games this season, with only Ajax’s Sébastien Haller (5) scoring more so far. The Frenchman could become the first player to score in three consecutive appearances for RB Leipzig in the competition.
● Since the start of last season, Kylian Mbappé has completed more take-ons than any other player in the UEFA Champions League (41), while he also been directly involved in the most shots following take-ons of any individual (9 – eight shots, one chance created).
● Christopher Nkunku made two appearances in the UEFA Champions League for PSG in 2015 and 2017, amounting to 23 minutes in total. Nkunku scored once against his former side last season for RB Leipzig, with only Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting scoring more than once against the Parisians after playing for them in the competition, netting home and away for Bayern München in last season’s quarter-final (two goals in total).
ATLETICO MADRID V LIVERPOOL
8pm We finish the evening with a cracker as two European giants clash! Group B looked like a tricky Group but given AC Milan have lost both of their opening games, these two fixtures between Atletico Madrid and Liverpool will decide who finishes first and second in the Group. Atletico Madrid haven’t played for a while because their weekend fixture was pushed back by La Liga with this Champions League game given preference. Liverpool warmed up with a 5-0 hammering of Watford, with Mo Salah in incredible form. You have to be very impressed with Liverpool at the moment – I know their squad is on the thin side compared to the other big sides in Europe, but when their best XI is in good form they are one of, if not the best, side in Europe. It’s unlikely Mo Salah will stay in this form all season, but if he does Liverpool won’t be losing many games!
Atletico are also having a decent season, however they haven’t been able to build up a lead in La Liga like they did at the start of last season. You can see looking at their xG figures that they haven’t been playing at their best, but they are doing enough to get results and they managed a 2-0 win over Barcelona leading into the International break. Barcelona aren’t the side they once were however, but Atletico will challenge for the La Liga title again this season. It’s always tough to beat them with home advantage, but they can’t sit back and accept a draw here. Liverpool are already two points ahead of them, so realistically they need to open the game up at some stage. I feel that will suit Liverpool more however, and now is a good time to be backing Klopp’s men. Liverpool are in incredible form at the moment, and they are always worth supporting when they are playing this good.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.34 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAtlLfc
MATCH STATS
● Atlético Madrid and Liverpool last met in the last 16 of the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League, with the Spaniards winning both legs, 1-0 at home and 3-2 away in extra-time.
● Liverpool have failed to win any of their four UEFA Champions League matches against Atlético Madrid (D2 L2), only facing Basel as often (also four times) without winning in their European Cup/Champions League history.
● Liverpool have lost six of their last seven away UEFA European matches on Spanish soil (D1) since beating Real Madrid in the last 16 of the 2008-09 Champions League. The Reds’ last win in Spain came against fellow English opponents, beating Tottenham 2-0 in the 2019 Champions League final in Atlético’s home stadium, the Wanda Metropolitano.
● Atlético Madrid are winless in four home UEFA Champions League matches (D3 L1), their joint-longest run without a home win in the competition (also four in December 2009). They have only scored once from 45 shots in this run and with an expected goal tally of 4.4, have netted 3.4 goals fewer than they would have been expected to score.
● Liverpool haven’t lost an away game in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League since September 2019 (0-2 v Napoli), winning five and drawing one of their last six such games. Jürgen Klopp’s side have scored 18 goals and conceded just three times across these six fixtures.
● Four of Atlético Madrid’s last seven goals in the UEFA Champions League have been scored in the final 10 minutes of play, including each of the last three in a row. Excluding extra time, Luis Suárez’s penalty (96:23) against AC Milan last time out was the latest game-winning goal in the UEFA Champions League since the start of the 2003-04 season (as far back as Opta have exact goal times).
● Atlético Madrid striker Luis Suárez scored 82 goals in 133 appearances for Liverpool between 2011 and 2014, although never played for the club in the UEFA Champions League. His only previous home appearance against the Reds saw him find the net for Barcelona in the Champions League semi-finals in a 3-0 win in May 2019 (one goal).
● Mohamed Salah has scored in each of his last five away games for Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League – the longest away scoring streak by a player for the Reds in the competition. Only one player has netted in more consecutive away appearances for an English club in the UEFA Champions League, with Sergio Agüero doing so in seven in a row for Manchester City between 2017 and 2019.
● Since the start of last season, Atlético Madrid’s José Giménez has progressed an average of 8.9 metres per carry in the UEFA Champions League (90 carries); the highest average of any centre back to have played at least 500 minutes in this period.
● 13 of Sadio Mané’s 20 goals for Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League have been scored not in home games (65%) – among players with 20+ goals in the competition, only Kylian Mbappé (70%) have a higher such percentage.
